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28-11-2019, 11:35 AM
#3541
The best growth and highest percentage of goods sold online (15%) of any retailer in N.Z. including the master Rod Duke at Briscoes ! (No small feat to beat his abilities) !
In my view for where the 10 year Govt stock rate (risk free rate) is now, a no growth company should be on a PE of 11.
HLG is trading at a PE premium of just 1 to a fair risk free adjusted no growth rate company and yet their eps growth rate has been 15% per annum average for the last 5 years. Their stock turn is exceptional too at more than 4, more than once per season which is incredible for an apparel retailer !
Their PEG rate is 12/15 = 0.8. Some other company I posted a PEG rate of well under one the other day is now in play for a takeover. I really hope that doesn't happen to HLG as I am genuinely excited for the growth prospects of Glassons in Australia. Winner reckons the market there is six times the size of ours and fast growing Glassons sales there are still a little less than N.Z.
Fast growing retailers can have much higher PE's. A good example is "Canada Goose" on a forward PE of 30 !
HLG not in their league by any means but I do think if they can continue to prove their growth rate in Australia the market might accord HLG a slightly higher multiple.
Last edited by Beagle; 28-11-2019 at 11:50 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-11-2019, 11:38 AM
#3542
If you are keen on retailers do not forget LOV on ASX.Best retail business model I have ever seen.
I very much doubt Tim Glasson will sell while his son is doing such a great job running Glassons in Australia.
Last edited by percy; 28-11-2019 at 11:41 AM.
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28-11-2019, 11:49 AM
#3543
One of KW's favourite's eh and I know she's done very well out of it in the past
Historic PE now 33 and has broken down through its 100 day moving average and looks to be in a fresh downtrend. Thanks for the reminder but I think I'll pass.
Tim Glasson should be very proud of his son, he's doing very well.
Just a reminder that this pending change makes life a bit easier for N.Z. retailers https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news...cid=spartandhp
Last edited by Beagle; 28-11-2019 at 11:52 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-11-2019, 11:53 AM
#3544
Last edited by BlackPeter; 28-11-2019 at 11:55 AM.
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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28-11-2019, 01:49 PM
#3545
Had a chat with the Beagle and we just talked ourselves into buying more of these beauties.
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28-11-2019, 02:02 PM
#3546
BP - This is the method I use and it works well for me so I am sticking with it.
Best guide to the future performance of a company in this order is:-
1. The most recent past
2. Extrapolation of the trend of financial performance over the last 5 years
3. What the company says about its outlook.
Going back further than five years, (when the business model, trading conditions, management and directors could have been very different) and somehow trying to argue this history is just as valid as far more recent history runs the real risk of watering down more valuable more recent information and in my opinion is more than likely to be unhelpful. Yes its more conservative but that's not necessarily helpful.
For me the underlying value is clear and the opportunity for significant future growth in Australia with Glassons is also crystal clear so as Couta1 has said, I have also added more today. I guess it comes down to whether you believe the opportunity in Australia is big or not. I'm definitely a believer.
Last edited by Beagle; 28-11-2019 at 02:05 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-11-2019, 02:22 PM
#3547
Originally Posted by Beagle
BP - This is the method I use and it works well for me so I am sticking with it.
Best guide to the future performance of a company in this order is:-
1. The most recent past
2. Extrapolation of the trend of financial performance over the last 5 years
3. What the company says about its outlook.
Going back further than five years, (when the business model, trading conditions, management and directors could have been very different) and somehow trying to argue this history is just as valid as far more recent history runs the real risk of watering down more valuable more recent information and in my opinion is more than likely to be unhelpful. Yes its more conservative but that's not necessarily helpful.
For me the underlying value is clear and the opportunity for significant future growth in Australia with Glassons is also crystal clear so as Couta1 has said, I have also added more today. I guess it comes down to whether you believe the opportunity in Australia is big or not. I'm definitely a believer.
Hope you're not going beyond a very prudent % of your portfolio Beagle. Warehouse, Kathmandu, Michael Hill....
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28-11-2019, 02:41 PM
#3548
Disciplined dog as usual...
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-11-2019, 02:43 PM
#3549
Enjoyed the joke.!...lol.
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28-11-2019, 03:49 PM
#3550
Disciplined every day by Mrs Beagle lol
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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