HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Beagle]

For what its worth BP I think Winner's insight is very useful. HLG's target market don't generally have large reserves of funds like you, I and others on here do to stock up at the supermarket so when they do start doing that non essential discretionary spending on other retail items like clothes probably takes quite a significant hit.

HLG also face a significant increase in the minimum wage with effect from 1 April 2020 which could not have come at a worse time. The currency is also under serious pressure.

I think its clear strong headwinds are building against HLG and its a good stock to avoid at present because nobody can reliably say at this point what their earnings will be in 2H FY20 let along FY21 so fundamental analysis is rendered almost useless and TA says emphatically to "stay away" so that's exactly what I'm going to do.

[BlackPeter]

For what its worth BP I think Winner's insight is very useful. HLG's target market don't generally have large reserves of funds like you, I and others on here do to stock up at the supermarket so when they do start doing that non essential discretionary spending on other retail items like clothes probably takes quite a significant hit.

HLG also face a significant increase in the minimum wage with effect from 1 April 2020 which could not have come at a worse time. The currency is also under serious pressure.

I think its clear strong headwinds are building against HLG and its a good stock to avoid at present because nobody can reliably say at this point what their earnings will be in 2H FY20 let along FY21 so fundamental analysis is rendered almost useless and TA says emphatically to "stay away" so that's exactly what I'm going to do.

I was referring to the stuff line of "New Zealand retailers are reporting a 15 per cent drop in sales in the wake of the corona virus". I think they meant to say some retailers reporting a 15 percent drop ...".

I do agree re HLG ... not too many people will worry whether they wear during self isolation the latest fashion : ... and yes, if they invest anyway all available funds into toilet paper and hand sanitizer, then the latest fashion T-shirt just will need to stay in the shop shelves ...

HLG board clearly missed the trend towards people wearing face masks and full body suits. I proposed some weeks ago that they might want to move into this crucial market, but so far it appears they have missed the bus and been more busy instead of taking pictures of lightly clad good looking ladies wearing their products. I guess nothing wrong with the latter, but their timing was suboptimal.

It was Gorbatchow (the last decent Russian president) who said at some stage "He who comes too late is punished by life". Look - he knew already in the late 80'íes what's going to happen to HLG ... ;

[bull....]

roll on $3 rinse and repeat

[kiwidollabill]

roll on $3 rinse and repeat

That's what I'm waiting for....

[winner69]

Many many decades ago had a holiday job at the place which distributed butter, cheese and eggs to the shops.

One thing I learnt was that Trentham race week (the good ol days when 20-30,000 punters would go to the races) was bad for sales —— could be 20% plus less butter and eggs.

Always remembered that ....essentials some times get shunted down the shopping list....just like Powerball last few weeks.

[Beagle]

That's what I'm waiting for....

"Nothing sweeter than a repeater" This a classic cyclical company after all !! Bought up large last time it went down to $2.75 in 2016 and primed up and ready to go again.

[oldtech]

I think quite a few of us are waiting and eagerly lipping our chops in anticipation with this one!

I first bought at $3.15 in 2017, never thought I'd see those levels again ... waiting waiting waiting

[kiwidollabill]

"Nothing sweeter than a repeater" This a classic cyclical company after all !! Bought up large last time it went down to $2.75 in 2016 and primed up and ready to go again.

The long term view is that they may end up missing the strategic boat in developing a more 'sustainable' aspect to their product offering and getting a better control over their supply chain. Their Australian competitors are working to get better at that but arent as good as HLG on retail fundamentals. I reckon they can get another cycle in before that starts to every affect them.

[Beagle]

I think quite a few of us are waiting and eagerly lipping our chops in anticipation with this one!

I first bought at $3.15 in 2017, never thought I'd see those levels again ... waiting waiting waiting

If we get community spread the shopping malls will be as quiet as a morgue. For what its worth, when the official virus count goes over 10 in N.Z. I am going to assume there's hundreds more infected who are currently asymptomatic and that's me done with shopping malls, restaurants and movies until the coast is clear, however long that might be. Happy to wear last year's clothes around the house, who cares ?

[oldtech]

If we get community spread the shopping malls will be as quiet as a morgue. For what its worth, when the official virus count goes over 10 in N.Z. I am going to assume there's hundreds more infected who are currently asymptomatic and that's me done with shopping malls, restaurants and movies until the coast is clear, however long that might be. Happy to wear last year's clothes around the house, who cares ?

Eventually sure, but I think there are lots of people - particularly younger ones, in say their 20s or 30s - who are still making light of it and will continue to for some time. They won't stop going to the malls until their friends start getting infected. Even then, they may well rely on their youth and relative health to get them through. And if not, then they'll shop from home.

How many people, when the word "tsunami" is mentioned, rush down to the beach to see it? Lots more than you would like to think ...