HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[James108]

Has anyone bothered to run some scenarios and calculate a range of fair values, how is everyone determining what they think fair value should be?

For instance as a base case I put into my dcf sheet a loss of 18 cents a share in the coming year a profit of 10 cents then 18 cents then 24 cents then 35 cents thereafter.

I feel they should comfortably stay solvent in this case if they don’t pay an upcoming dividend. I also feel that with no debt and a track record of surviving they are well positioned following a recovery.

[winner69]

And they are even going to survive" The Bull". Lol

.....thats a good end to the day

[winner69]

Has anyone bothered to run some scenarios and calculate a range of fair values, how is everyone determining what they think fair value should be?

For instance as a base case I put into my dcf sheet a loss of 18 cents a share in the coming year a profit of 10 cents then 18 cents then 24 cents then 35 cents thereafter.

I feel they should comfortably stay solvent in this case if they don’t pay an upcoming dividend. I also feel that with no debt and a track record of surviving they are well positioned following a recovery.

If HLG lose 18 cents a share this year ($10m) then things like the msrket) must be really really dire and any turn around from that level would take ages.

If that is what HLG lose I’d hate to guess how the other retailers would have fared

[James108]

Yes a long turn around is what I have modelled. I can see them loseing money in aus if people avoid malls. Maybe not in NZ. I guess rather than a base case it may be a moderately conservative case (I am an engineer and my default is to be moderately conservative).

[Bobdn]

When i'm in a funk over my investments, i always like to think of worse investments to make me feel better. like these...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/coro...ig-losses.html

[Beagle]

Massive shuttering of stores overseas in Europe for a lot of retailiers. If we get community transmission we could see the same here.
Low during the GFC according to a long term chart I reviewed this morning appears to be $2.13 on 27/02/09.
Might be a useful marker to remember. Good luck Coutts. I am not tempted by the current price.

[BlackPeter]

Hmm .. just looking at the depth am I not quite sure the GFC bottom will provide meaningful resistance.

HLG sells discretionary consumer items, nothing anybody really would need short term.

People still will need food, medication and information, but really - who would need to buy over the coming say 12 to 18 months a new t-shirt, suit or dress if people are working from home and events are called off? Last years fashion will be good enough for the home office.

HLG probably best close their shops (unless landlords are very reasonable) or otherwise move them into "maintenance and care" and try to keep some sales going over the internet. What this means for the SP - I don't know, but I would buy at this stage other retailers (providing essential products), no matter how low HLG drop.

[Beagle]

They should have moved to stocking hazmat suits, gloves, masks and other personal protective equipment and they would have been enjoying boom times !

Landlords are going to have to accept that they will have to come to the party and share some of the pain to get through this. Not much point in owning a mall devoid of a large percentage of tenants in 2021 is there !

My nephew owns two restaurants. I believe he is on the cusp of asking the landlord for a rent holiday to get through this.

[BlackPeter]

They should have moved to stocking hazmat suits, gloves, masks and other personal protective equipment and they would have been enjoying boom times !

I proposed that some weeks ago on this thread ... but unfortunately they don't seem to read it :

[Beagle]

I proposed that some weeks ago on this thread ... but unfortunately they don't seem to read it :

Yeap, I remember it well mate.
28 Cases now, another big leap ! (Was just 12 cases 2 days ago). https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12318127
Note the change in tone to "when" we get community spread, not "if"
When community spread is confirmed I expect this to be really severe in terms of its impact on N.Z. retail.