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09-04-2020, 05:58 PM
#4221
Originally Posted by macduffy
Really? The old school PnD's that I remember had a very visible party at the pump. Who do you think's working this handle?
Personally, I think it's a case of the market waking up and realising that there's life after this virus for the best of the retailers!
"Valuations nay old school" ........was my sense-of-humour as recent increases for HLG have nothing to do with valuations as everything is currently guess work maybe a raving bargain or another KMD
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09-04-2020, 10:12 PM
#4222
Originally Posted by peat
but the stimulus doesn't make much of its way to Main St fashion ? I guess it keeps the general bubble going which helps HLG.
IF and its a very big IF things retail normalise moderately quickly I'll be looking who reinstates some of their dividend because Beagle was right to point out how conservative investors rate continuity of dividend highly.
Even if some is paid in the correct period I will rate it highly. But to miss a divi!
Honestly I don't think market cares and is trying to eke out the bubble for another 2 months and will make money where money is to be made, buying where things are oversold. Disc this would be the first bear and black swan I've been through so I'm not talking from any experience, just what I think will happen
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10-04-2020, 12:30 AM
#4223
Originally Posted by JeremyALD
Jeepers I don't think with the risks to retail at the moment I would pay $3.70, but all the best to those going in!
Completely agree. I wouldn't touch this sector at all. A quick list of all the retail companies that went bust in the UK in 2019, prior to any COVID related issues:
- Bonmarché
- Watt Brothers
- Khaadi Fashion
- Gerry Weber
- Forever 21
- Karen Millen and Coast
- Jack Wills
- Laura Ashley
- Arcadia retail empire
- Stefanel
- Select
- Debenhams
- Pretty Green
- LK Bennett
- TReds
Appreciate NZ is a different market, but ASOS and Boohoo will rise in the same fashion as Amazon and impact all home-grown retail companies.
Last edited by Pricey; 10-04-2020 at 12:30 AM.
Reason: Didn't like the font :)
"His loyalty couldn't be bought at any price; but it could be rented remarkably cheaply."
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10-04-2020, 12:43 AM
#4224
obvs HLG do something different to all those failures
Only two weeks ago or less they advised you that Group sales for the six months to 1 February 2020 were $160.27 million, an increase of 5.7% over the corresponding period last year ($151.66 million) with a Net profit after tax of $15.44 million,
that's nearly 25c per share earnings in six months. So why you comparing them with belly up businesses.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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10-04-2020, 02:14 AM
#4225
No real comparison really to those other ones, which turned belly up
Knowing the Rag Trade very well, I would say HLG are very respected & astute operators
Their financials reflect a solid very well run operation, with a sound balance sheet &
long history of sound earnings & dividend history
Aside from seasonal working capital requirements & perhaps the odd extraordinary event,
how many other Operators are there in Retail with little or no external debt ?
I would be more concerned with KMD even after their recent Cap Raise, as the market
seems to be suggesting in pricing even carrying through to BGP as a diluted stakeholder
Last edited by nztx; 10-04-2020 at 02:28 AM.
Reason: add more
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10-04-2020, 05:16 PM
#4226
HLG will get through this okay but no way are they worth anywhere near the closing price on Thursday in my opinion. Overpriced by at least $1.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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10-04-2020, 08:17 PM
#4227
Just saying, retail is tough. Customers are fickle. You are braver than me.
"His loyalty couldn't be bought at any price; but it could be rented remarkably cheaply."
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10-04-2020, 09:53 PM
#4228
Originally Posted by Pricey
Just saying, retail is tough. Customers are fickle. You are braver than me.
For sure 'Retail is tough & Customers are fickle'
but HLG have a long proud track record of cracking the market both here in Aussie (even tougher)
in a backdrop of others in the game falling over
Who knows, with things awash in Govt injected Ca$h & in places nowhere to spend aside from Essentials, it wouldn't
surprise if some Retailers (HLG BGP & TWH etc) didn't have some bumper trading weeks when things reopen
to make up for weeks closed..
Last edited by nztx; 10-04-2020 at 09:56 PM.
Reason: add more
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10-04-2020, 10:15 PM
#4229
Originally Posted by nztx
For sure 'Retail is tough & Customers are fickle'
but HLG have a long proud track record of cracking the market both here in Aussie (even tougher)
in a backdrop of others in the game falling over
Who knows, with things awash in Govt injected Ca$h & in places nowhere to spend aside from Essentials, it wouldn't
surprise if some Retailers (HLG BGP & TWH etc) didn't have some bumper trading weeks when things reopen
to make up for weeks closed..
Would HLG be one of the first stores on your shopping list once normality returns. Some estimates saying clothing has taken a 40% fall in AUS fairly steep decline.........
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10-04-2020, 11:20 PM
#4230
Originally Posted by dreamcatcher
Would HLG be one of the first stores on your shopping list once normality returns. Some estimates saying clothing has taken a 40% fall in AUS fairly steep decline.........
HLG are near the top of my list to add further
I note Beagle's earlier very good comment that they may be overpriced, however their track record
with sound financials appears better than others. No Apr 20 Dividend is a small sacrifice to secure further
as the market seems to concur.
Winter 20 Indent/Season may be curry or affected to a degree, but beyond that with reopening they should rebound
I remember looking closely at HLG back 2-3 years ago at around $3 levels, but never moved at the time
I regard WHS HGH OCA MET MHJ ANZ & WBC as possible value/rebound stocks for the future
along with a further list of 'punts' which may deliver quite well
Last edited by nztx; 10-04-2020 at 11:25 PM.
Reason: add more
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