HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[daveoi]

Their financial Year ends July 31st. Lots of Retailers are trading well and have been since the beginning of level 3 (source: own experience, anaecdotal feedback, and releases from Briscoes: https://insideretail.co.nz/2020/07/2...post-lockdown/, Kiwi Property: https://insideretail.co.nz/2020/06/2...pping-centres/) . Rent abatements & wage subsidies will help result look quite positive given the circumstances (wage subsidy continued to pay people while stores were trading strongly. Market should get an update mid August on their full year performance. Unknown how much impact Victoria lockdown and possibly NSW lockdown will have on sales as they have an extremely good online business that could pick up lost bricks and mortar sales.

Disc: Work in retail (not HLG). Holding HLG.

[BlackPeter]

Their financial Year ends July 31st. Lots of Retailers are trading well and have been since the beginning of level 3 (source: own experience, anaecdotal feedback, and releases from Briscoes: https://insideretail.co.nz/2020/07/2...post-lockdown/, Kiwi Property: https://insideretail.co.nz/2020/06/2...pping-centres/) . Rent abatements & wage subsidies will help result look quite positive given the circumstances (wage subsidy continued to pay people while stores were trading strongly. Market should get an update mid August on their full year performance. Unknown how much impact Victoria lockdown and possibly NSW lockdown will have on sales as they have an extremely good online business that could pick up lost bricks and mortar sales.

Disc: Work in retail (not HLG). Holding HLG.

Welcome to the forum ... good first post.

Question, though - what impact would you see on the industry when wage subsidy schemes in both Australia and New Zealand are starting to expire and the real unemployment rates shines through? Share prices are normally forward looking (even if the past looks marvelous).

[King1212]

Oz wage subsidy is extended till March 2021

[daveoi]

Welcome to the forum ... good first post.

Question, though - what impact would you see on the industry when wage subsidy schemes in both Australia and New Zealand are starting to expire and the real unemployment rates shines through? Share prices are normally forward looking (even if the past looks marvelous).

The initial forecasts (just as we were coming out of lockdown) were that a lot of people were planning for a 10% sales drop through the spring/summer seasons. However, as trade has been stronger than expected, for longer than expected - whether this comes to pass is another story.

There is definite risk, and adding to it mortgage holidays coming off, we could definitely see a downturn. I think HGL will take a conservative approach to their capital - but even so I think they may pay an increased dividend next time around given they didn't pay out the last one, and I have a feeling their profit will be inflated by not essentially not having to pay any wages for 3 months.

[BlackPeter]

The initial forecasts (just as we were coming out of lockdown) were that a lot of people were planning for a 10% sales drop through the spring/summer seasons. However, as trade has been stronger than expected, for longer than expected - whether this comes to pass is another story.

There is definite risk, and adding to it mortgage holidays coming off, we could definitely see a downturn. I think HGL will take a conservative approach to their capital - but even so I think they may pay an increased dividend next time around given they didn't pay out the last one, and I have a feeling their profit will be inflated by not essentially not having to pay any wages for 3 months.

Interesting - and you well might be right related to the current reporting period. How the future will look is obviously anybody's guess.

Still waiting for the bear to start mauling before buying back in, but who knows - these well might be my famous last words?

[Cyclical]

Told us the other 10 stores closed in Victoria due to virus ...that’ll hurt them

Even worse when Sydney stores close as well

The initial forecasts (just as we were coming out of lockdown) were that a lot of people were planning for a 10% sales drop through the spring/summer seasons. However, as trade has been stronger than expected, for longer than expected - whether this comes to pass is another story.

There is definite risk, and adding to it mortgage holidays coming off, we could definitely see a downturn. I think HGL will take a conservative approach to their capital - but even so I think they may pay an increased dividend next time around given they didn't pay out the last one, and I have a feeling their profit will be inflated by not essentially not having to pay any wages for 3 months.

Like daveoi, I'm mildly optimistic/hopeful that this year's results won't actually be too bad and we'll see a reasonable dividend. Also because FY ends for these guys in 2 days, the impact of the latest Oz lockdowns will be spread across this and next year's results, so not so hard to swallow all at once. Definitely interesting times ahead, but not expecting this result to be too nasty.

And BP, the bear has already maulled it down almost 20% from the recent high...just saying ;-)

[Snow Leopard]

...Still waiting for the bear to start mauling before buying back in, but who knows - these well might be my famous last words?

Whilst we hope that these words of yours become famous, at the same time we hope that they are not your last.

[Cyclical]

Well this part of my portfolio ain't looking so great at the moment and the slide seems to be accelerating, down 4% today alone. I can only assume the unease is primarily because of the situation unfolding in Oz. Even though we're now in a new financial year, it's likely to have a negative bearing on the upcoming divvy...if there is one.

[Waltzing]

dont worry there are a lot of us who have a few stocks that werent sold in time back in march and dont look to good. We have a couple we dont expect to recover for 3 to 5 years . Hold on and hopefully this too will pass... in a year or 2 but the damage will be in the worlds economy for a good while.. even if reserve banks did a BOJ and bought equities and also bough government debt direct only then would you possible get a sooner lift.. but reserve banks dont yet buy bonds direct from governments that i know of.

[nztx]

dont worry there are a lot of us who have a few stocks that werent sold in time back in march and dont look to good. We have a couple we dont expect to recover for 3 to 5 years . Hold on and hopefully this too will pass... in a year or 2 but the damage will be in the worlds economy for a good while.. even if reserve banks did a BOJ and bought equities and also bough government debt direct only then would you possible get a sooner lift.. but reserve banks dont yet buy bonds direct from governments that i know of.

A good opportunity for 'averaging down' .. had a few Co's with large notional red ink riding through from late March / April .. a few have recovered that plus with averaging nicely

A Notional Paper Loss at times doesn't worry me too much, but may present further opportunity

HLG will be one for a bit of averaging down shortly here ..

SP is probably only being discounted down for the OZ Retail situation