HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Balance]

Anything can happen (and probably will) between now and then I guess, but currently I'm struggling to see the need to go negative. It's going to cause a world of pain on many levels to go there. I suspect if it did, it would mainly be because our main trading partners have done so and we need to follow suit in order to keep a cap in the NZD...so relative to said trading partner's currencies, we'll be in the same position we are now.

Anyway, just in case, better keep loading up on them assets

Yup - agreed. Money is going to be worth bugger all.

And just wait for the interest income shock for the bank deposits of $256 billion in 2021 when negative interest rates hit.

Banks are forecasting OCR to be minus 0.5% next year which means bank deposit interest rates will drop to less than 1%.

High yielding stocks are going to get repriced hugely if 10% of those deposits move into the sharemarket in search of yield.

[Beagle]

Here's a taste of what's coming with bank deposit rates just to illustrate Balance's point. https://www.bnz.co.nz/personal-banki...estments/rates
and you can be certain its going lower than this in due course
I got offered 0.25% per annum, (not a typo), to roll over my Kiwibonds maturing next month. (No prizes for guessing what I did with their reinvestment offer).

[Davexl]

Here's a taste of what's coming with bank deposit rates just to illustrate Balance's point. https://www.bnz.co.nz/personal-banki...estments/rates
and you can be certain its going lower than this in due course
I got offered 0.25% per annum, (not a typo), to roll over my Kiwibonds maturing next month. (No prizes for guessing what I did with their reinvestment offer).

Hard to know for sure what to do with spare cash when the S&P has double topped and the whole thing could roll over.
Gotta earn an income somewhere or maybe do the hedging thing again via ASX and have it work this time around...surely can't go even higher or can it?

[Beagle]

Hard to know for sure what to do with spare cash when the S&P has double topped and the whole thing could roll over.
Gotta earn an income somewhere or maybe do the hedging thing again via ASX and have it work this time around...surely can't go even higher or can it?

The size of the chasm between Wall St and main street has never been wider in my 38 years in the market. The disconnect is so disconcerting I try not to think about it.
I stick to value stocks that have a resilient business model like this and OCA on a PE of about 10, high growth at a reasonable price like PAZ, highly defensive yield like GNE and ARG and I think the tech sector in the US will keep on trucking as the way consumers spend has probably permanently changed. Marlin have a lot in the tech sector and I have some of their warrants exercisable in November.
I have some Barramundi in Australia too. I don't have all the answers by any means whatsoever and am really struggling to find different idea's for the sake of more effective diversification for a home for term deposit money maturing in the next two months. I'd be keen to go for more HLG if the price falls back a bit so I get around 20% margin of safety on my $5.36 valuation.

I guess you could hedge with that double bear fund, (sorry forgot the name) if you're really worried.
VIX in the US is getting close to normal so I don't know you'll get the volatility you're looking for or the size of the correction to justify holding a meaningful bear fund position...but who knows ? Must admit I got the strength of the bounce-back since 23 March 2020 very wrong....so far.

[Getty]

BBOZ, Beta Strong Bear fund is the one I've used, probably the one you mean too, on ASX

[Beagle]

Thanks, that's the one.

[Waltzing]

many thanks to MR B for his generous time to these forums and we did buy before his post but this just confirmed our views on HLG as we would have required the full FA results.

[Davexl]

The size of the chasm between Wall St and main street has never been wider in my 38 years in the market. The disconnect is so disconcerting I try not to think about it.
I stick to value stocks that have a resilient business model like this and OCA on a PE of about 10, high growth at a reasonable price like PAZ, highly defensive yield like GNE and ARG and I think the tech sector in the US will keep on trucking as the way consumers spend has probably permanently changed. Marlin have a lot in the tech sector and I have some of their warrants exercisable in November.
I have some Barramundi in Australia too. I don't have all the answers by any means whatsoever and am really struggling to find different idea's for the sake of more effective diversification for a home for term deposit money maturing in the next two months. I'd be keen to go for more HLG if the price falls back a bit so I get around 20% margin of safety on my $5.36 valuation.

I guess you could hedge with that double bear fund, (sorry forgot the name) if you're really worried.
VIX in the US is getting close to normal so I don't know you'll get the volatility you're looking for or the size of the correction to justify holding a meaningful bear fund position...but who knows ? Must admit I got the strength of the bounce-back since 23 March 2020 very wrong....so far.

Yes BBOZ. Thanks for your thinking on this Beagle, really beginning to exercise my mind on what to do. BBUS on ASX would be a more specific hedge of course but might wait a bit to see what happens - hard to pick those turning points, missed on the bounce back also & BBOZ turned out wrong at this time.

Tried to pick up some Hallensteins but a bit late so trying for more GNE to go with my CEN position. Good time for divvies at any rate...

[winner69]

Updated chart of HLG history

Sort of says that based on historic trends HLG currently has a fair bit of 'downside risk' built into the share price.

[Beagle]

Awesome chart Winner, much appreciated.