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25-09-2020, 09:56 AM
#4601
A $5 close is not out of question by COB today....
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25-09-2020, 09:59 AM
#4602
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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25-09-2020, 10:00 AM
#4603
Originally Posted by sb9
A $5 close is not out of question by COB today....
Yep, punters will buy the divie now
Wonder what price in December when its paid
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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25-09-2020, 10:01 AM
#4604
Originally Posted by winner69
Yep, punters will buy the divie now
Wonder what price in December when its paid
Sure, make that $5 by open for now
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25-09-2020, 10:02 AM
#4605
Junior Member
Originally Posted by sb9
A $5 close is not out of question by COB today....
Well you were close, hit that on the open!
Not much depth in the sell chart, only 1,000 shares!
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25-09-2020, 10:08 AM
#4606
I'm glad I added a few at $4.66 a few days ago. Was kicking myself when They dropped even lower, but I am smiling now.
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25-09-2020, 10:10 AM
#4607
so full year dividend 39 cents fully imputed
Whats a good risk adjusted return (yield) these days
Say 5% ...........jeez punters could be happy as paying $10
Even if things got a bit bad and divie sown to 30 cents $8 would still be very attractive
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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25-09-2020, 10:25 AM
#4608
I am almost lost for words. FY21 Sales year to date in the middle of lockdowns in N.Z. and Victoria are up 10.71%...that almost blows my mind and beggars belief ! I thought year to date sales would be down 10% in the circumstances. The 24 cent divvy vastly exceeded my expectations...to be honest I was expecting 10-15 cents or maybe no dividend. Frankly, I am profoundly surprised with how remarkably well they are travelling during this Covid crisis.
After the forecast announcement some weeks back I came up with a fair value of about $5.40 if my memory serves me correctly.
What is clear is that they have managed the most extraordinary of adverse circumstances incredibly well in FY20 and online sales are booming.
The only way I can understand that is to try and get my head around the power of a powerful brand. Powerful brands have been doing well during the Covid crisis and I think the sales being up nearly 11% year to date really underscores that HLG has very strong brand power.
39 cents fully imputed = 54.2 cps gross. At 9% (which is the same yield I used in my previous dividend valuation...it could be argued yields have come down since then), I get fair value of 54.2 / 0.09 = $6.02.
Remarkable resilience by this company in FY20 during the most challenging conditions ever (including very adverse exchange rate in FY20), which has notably improved materially for them since then and the trend to online sales and the early sales growth in FY21 gives substantial encouragement to holding what is arguably the premier dividend payer on the NZX.
Disc: I added more this morning.
Last edited by Beagle; 25-09-2020 at 10:28 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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25-09-2020, 10:32 AM
#4609
Originally Posted by couta1
And to think all the crap and downramping that was spoken on here a few months ago was just nonsense, just highlights the fact that each must follow their own leading no matter what the crowd say.
I take it you stayed the course couta? Pleased for you. I remember the hubris being tossed about.
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25-09-2020, 10:42 AM
#4610
Originally Posted by jonu
I take it you stayed the course couta? Pleased for you. I remember the hubris being tossed about.
I stayed the course but in a reduced way as I significantly upped my A2 holding. PS-I shall be rejecting any crap talk on that stock with a passion.
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