HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[jimdog31]

Market sentiment always determines price not what we think a company is worth or not, you can't compare HLG in any way to APT or ATM as an investment and in fact you can't even compare the latter two they are so different, HLG is a longstanding trusted NZ divvy payer whilst APT and ATM are international monsters, the gains from the latter two for early investors is mind blowing along with XRO.

I wasn't really comparing them , I was more contrasting them - they are at completely different ends of the spectrum. I agree that all of those growth companies have delivered mind blowing gains, I was more saying in these uncertain times Id rather have the money in a company that's stood the test of time and can deliver gains during uncertain times.. ATM IMO has been unfortunate in a current rerate, but will regain its ground at some point in the future. I believe Afterpay will go through the same rerate at some point.

[Gunner]

Has been a remarkably resilient retailer during covid but where is the growth going to come from? They are already in every mall. Steady as she goes but a good divvy?

[winner69]

Thanks mate. I always greatly appreciate your work on charts like this. Its true ! A picture says a thousand words !

Forward PE of 10.7 is absolutely nuts for a company growing earnings at 20% per annum.

That's a PEG of about 0.5 isn't it

Some would say that makes HLG very very cheap

[nztx]

That's a PEG of about 0.5 isn't it

Some would say that makes HLG very very cheap

Indeedy .. some would say a Winner yet to be seen as a Bigger Winner

Maybe time to fill up the truck before the sleeping awake ..

[jimdog31]

Has been a remarkably resilient retailer during covid but where is the growth going to come from? They are already in every mall. Steady as she goes but a good divvy?

Online. Growth here is uncapped. And mostly straight to the bottom line with no new overheads.

[macduffy]

In time if they keep growing earnings that will change.

There's that very big, little word, IF, again.

[Gunner]

Yes agreed growth is here but online is open to the world. Competition is fierce. Wheres the online moat?

[jimdog31]

Yes agreed growth is here but online is open to the world. Competition is fierce. Wheres the online moat?

As an established brand in bricks in mortar, that can act as your moat. Returns, swaps and touch and feel is available and tangible if you are sitting on the fence with a product. Reputation is already established too.

[Snow Leopard]

When I called $6 others were 'skeptical' & now we are pulling numbers out of a hat to try and ramp it up beyond reasonable.



Disc: hold, but not buying.

[Beagle]

That's a PEG of about 0.5 isn't it

Some would say that makes HLG very very cheap

Yes ! Glassons Australia sales and store count is still just a little behind NZ but Australia has more than 5 times the total "dressable" market.
Management seem quite bullish on Australian growth prospects, with good reason looking at growth there in recent years.
Anyone wondering where the growth is going to come from need look no further. Australia !!

I see no valid reason why HLG should not at least trade on the same PE metrics as Briscoes and the Warehouse which average 14.3, if anything, its fairly easy to make the case it should trade at a modest PE premium. 60 cents x a PE of 15 = $9
When you invert this thing and look at the valuation from a bottom analysis, that 6 starts looking suspiciously like a 9...you see what I did there