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02-11-2020, 10:37 AM
#5051
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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02-11-2020, 11:01 AM
#5052
Originally Posted by couta1
Going by some of your comments I don't think you understand the female species too well. PS-My wife buys most of my clothes for my one wardrobe as well as all of her own for her three wardrobes.
LOL. Hope HLG management are reading this...it should be pretty easy for them to extrapolate from your post that they need 3 times as many Glassons stores as they do Hallensteins.
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02-11-2020, 11:06 AM
#5053
Originally Posted by winner69
That much touted 11% sales increase over last year in first 10 weeks of new year ...ie August/September and a bit of October
Has to be seen in the context of what the market / sector
ABS report Clothing etc retail sales in Australia down 11% in August. September number out Wednesday
NZ Stats Electronic Card Spend had Apparel sales in NZ down 12%
Wow - HLG group sales up 11% when market / sector down 11%/12% - huge share gains - amazing effort
Selling heaps more when clothing sales remain in the doldrums
What a resilient brand Glassons must be ...amazing stuff.
Bears repeating. Their performance in the context of the overall apparel market is absolutely stunning.
This fact seems lost on a lot of people here as does the fact that a very average retailer like WHS is on a forward PE of 14, (one professional analyst very recently put a value of $3.00 on it which suggest a PE of 17.5 !!) and a company like Briscoes which is not growing is on a PE of 14.6
Some people seem stuck in their mind with the notion this will only ever break above $6 temporarily and are ignoring recent years growth and the growth potential going forward.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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02-11-2020, 11:16 AM
#5054
Member
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
I hear you ... and I agree that people will always need clothing, even in a depression. However - do they really need new and fashionable (i.e. fast outdated) clothing and do they really need to replace their wardrobe every season?
Discl: used to hold in the past, but not now.
True but I tend to think of them less as a fashion house, perhaps more of an essential apparel thing. Yes they obviously have to (and have a knack for) get the style right but one might easily pop in and procure something under $5000 that works at a tidy bbq/work function and may well be acceptable a year (even two) later. One would have to be at a rather undemanding work gig to get away with last year's "Fashion" item. Probably counter intuitive but to me it increases demand as a go-to outlet. Mind you, never been into a glassons, could be a completely wrong on dresses.
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02-11-2020, 11:19 AM
#5055
Originally Posted by Beagle
Bears repeating. Their performance in the context of the overall apparel market is absolutely stunning.
This fact seems lost on a lot of people here as does the fact that a very average retailer like WHS is on a forward PE of 14, (one professional analyst very recently put a value of $3.00 on it which suggest a PE of 17.5 !!) and a company like Briscoes which is not growing is on a PE of 14.6
Some people seem stuck in their mind with the notion this will only ever break above $6 temporarily and are ignoring recent years growth and the growth potential going forward.
One thing I often find when people ask what I invest in is that they are surprised to hear Hallenstein Glassons. I don't imagine I'd get the same response if I said The Warehouse. Maybe Briscoes would fall somewhere in the middle. I can't speak entirely from experience though as haven't held the latter two. But possibly this is one of the issues, it hasn't taken off with the Sharesies crowd, or the analysts, and hence we have this liquidity issue and subsequently it probably won't make it into the NZX50, which in itself means the cycle can't be broken and the share price will continue to languish with a conservative PE. Oh well, treat it as a gift and accumulate. One day the market will figure it out.
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02-11-2020, 11:22 AM
#5056
Originally Posted by dibble
True but I tend to think of them less as a fashion house, perhaps more of an essential apparel thing. Yes they obviously have to (and have a knack for) get the style right but one might easily pop in and procure something under $5000 that works at a tidy bbq/work function and may well be acceptable a year (even two) later. One would have to be at a rather undemanding work gig to get away with last year's "Fashion" item. Probably counter intuitive but to me it increases demand as a go-to outlet. Mind you, never been into a glassons, could be a completely wrong on dresses.
You dress in gold leaf?
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02-11-2020, 11:23 AM
#5057
Originally Posted by Cyclical
One thing I often find when people ask what I invest in is that they are surprised to hear Hallenstein Glassons. I don't imagine I'd get the same response if I said The Warehouse. Maybe Briscoes would fall somewhere in the middle. I can't speak entirely from experience though as haven't held the latter two. But possibly this is one of the issues, it hasn't taken off with the Sharesies crowd, or the analysts, and hence we have this liquidity issue and subsequently it probably won't make it into the NZX50, which in itself means the cycle can't be broken and the share price will continue to languish with a conservative PE. Oh well, treat it as a gift and accumulate. One day the market will figure it out.
The Sharesies crowd were all over this one earlier in the year, they were stacking the depth chart with their trademark pattern.
Last edited by couta1; 02-11-2020 at 11:31 AM.
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02-11-2020, 11:40 AM
#5058
HLG were in the NZX50 about 5 years ago
Got kicked out and replaced by PEB
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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02-11-2020, 11:42 AM
#5059
Originally Posted by winner69
HLG were in the NZX50 about 5 years ago
Got kicked out and replaced by PEB
Lol and PEB prevented them from getting back in 5 yrs later, who would have thought, see its true every dog really does have its day.
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02-11-2020, 11:55 AM
#5060
HLG financial year F20 NZD.USD average was 0.6355
Seems to be about 0.66 at the moment ...and forecasts suggest its going to get stronger
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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