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17-11-2020, 02:33 PM
#5311
Originally Posted by couta1
Lot of sellers grouping up around this level and who would blame them aye.
There's an old saying - buy at top end of valuations and expect disappointing future returns
Seems to be true for HLG - when share price peaks (stretching valuations) future years returns have been disappointing
Peaked Mar13 and returns including dividends down down 36% in next 3 years
Peaked Aug18 and just ahead now after recent surge
Peaked Nov19 and just ahead after a year
Just as well this times different eh and the story is compelling as it was a year or so ago.
Capital preservation strategy been implemented --- keeping a real close eye on the squiggly lines on the chart and looking closely at any factors that could impact their performance
But hoping like anything the share price will get to $7.50 or even higher.
Last edited by winner69; 17-11-2020 at 02:34 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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17-11-2020, 03:28 PM
#5312
Originally Posted by Snow Leopard
So you do not subscribe to the belief articulated here that fair value for HLG is always $2 more than the current market price then?
Haha you mean the movable goalpost theory. PS-Sellers starting to overpower buyers.
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17-11-2020, 04:52 PM
#5313
Originally Posted by winner69
There's an old saying - buy at top end of valuations and expect disappointing future returns
Seems to be true for HLG - when share price peaks (stretching valuations) future years returns have been disappointing
Peaked Mar13 and returns including dividends down down 36% in next 3 years
Peaked Aug18 and just ahead now after recent surge
Peaked Nov19 and just ahead after a year
Just as well this times different eh and the story is compelling as it was a year or so ago.
Capital preservation strategy been implemented --- keeping a real close eye on the squiggly lines on the chart and looking closely at any factors that could impact their performance
But hoping like anything the share price will get to $7.50 or even higher.
In more normal years - Yes
but with our current economic factors meaning huge Excess Loot in the system & Low cost money
is fighting to see better returns - plus further vast amounts released from takeovers, Bonus Bonds
maturing TD's piling in etc etc, and no wealth capital gains tax
The whole market is up currently too, on reduced respectable candidates to throw it at
That scenario wont subside anytime soon while interest rates are miserably low for savings & deposits
Scale those into normalised scenario & HLG $7's/$8's wouldn't surprise & may stay around for some time
not subsiding while improving results prevail
Move into stocks which are reasonably solid / have good forward prospects / EPS & DPS has & is
occurring as far as I can see..
There are a hoard of new aware punters - such as Sharesies Retail investors in the market now too
Last edited by nztx; 17-11-2020 at 04:56 PM.
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17-11-2020, 05:02 PM
#5314
Originally Posted by nztx
In more normal years - Yes
but with our current economic factors meaning huge Excess Loot in the system & Low cost money
is fighting to see better returns - plus further vast amounts released from takeovers, Bonus Bonds
maturing TD's piling in etc etc, and no wealth capital gains tax
The whole market is up currently too, on reduced respectable candidates to throw it at
That scenario wont subside anytime soon while interest rates are miserably low for savings & deposits
Scale those into normalised scenario & HLG $7's/$8's wouldn't surprise & may stay around for some time
not subsiding while improving results prevail
Move into stocks which are reasonably solid / have good forward prospects / EPS & DPS has & is
occurring as far as I can see..
There are a hoard of new aware punters - such as Sharesies Retail investors in the market now too
Yield at any price leads to scorched earth capital eventually. PS-Shouldnt that read new unaware punters in the market now too?
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17-11-2020, 05:20 PM
#5315
Originally Posted by couta1
PS-Shouldnt that read new unaware punters in the market now too?
For sure. And it remains to be seen how many would vanish at the first sign of a scorching. The flip side of that though is there is plenty of cash around to pluck up "bargains" as they present themselves. Investment property is likely to become unattractive in the next few months, if not just through reinstatement of LVR restrictions, or excessive valuations, then probably something else the government will come up with to dampen the flames...then there will be more money looking for reasonable yield. Yeah, unless there is a sizeable profit downgrade, or things turn to custard in Oz (I'm expecting the reverse tbh) for some reason, then I think this is one is safe to continue it's incline.
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17-11-2020, 06:33 PM
#5316
Originally Posted by winner69
There's an old saying - buy at top end of valuations and expect disappointing future returns
Seems to be true for HLG - when share price peaks (stretching valuations) future years returns have been disappointing
Peaked Mar13 and returns including dividends down down 36% in next 3 years
Peaked Aug18 and just ahead now after recent surge
Peaked Nov19 and just ahead after a year
Just as well this times different eh and the story is compelling as it was a year or so ago.
Capital preservation strategy been implemented --- keeping a real close eye on the squiggly lines on the chart and looking closely at any factors that could impact their performance
But hoping like anything the share price will get to $7.50 or even higher.
Words of wisdom, W69.
Not sure whether the writeup below qualifies as worthy of note but it certainly paints a glowing picture of HLG :
https://www.stockopedia.com/articles...nzehlg-135528/
Excerpt :
By looking at a small number of important ratios you can get an idea about the competitive strength and profit power in a business.
Here's what they are and why they are important - and how Hallenstein Glasson Holdings stacks up against them:
High rates of Free Cash Flow - the measure of a thriving company.
- A high ratio of free cash flow to sales can be a very positive sign. For Hallenstein Glasson Holdings, the figure is an impressive 20.7%.
High Return on Capital Employed - the measure of a company growing efficiently and profitably.
- A 5-year average ROCE of more than 12 percent is a pointer to strong efficiency. For Hallenstein Glasson Holdings, the figure is an eye-catching 41.7%.
High Return on Equity (compared to peers) - the measure of a company making good profits from its assets.
- Hallenstein Glasson Holdings has a 5-year average ROE of 34.2%.
High Operating Margins (compared to peers) - the measure of a company with pricing power
- Hallenstein Glasson Holdings has a 5-year average operating margin of 11.8%.
Last edited by Balance; 17-11-2020 at 06:34 PM.
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17-11-2020, 07:25 PM
#5317
Originally Posted by Balance
Words of wisdom, W69.
Not sure whether the writeup below qualifies as worthy of note but it certainly paints a glowing picture of HLG :
https://www.stockopedia.com/articles...nzehlg-135528/
Excerpt :
By looking at a small number of important ratios you can get an idea about the competitive strength and profit power in a business.
Here's what they are and why they are important - and how Hallenstein Glasson Holdings stacks up against them:
High rates of Free Cash Flow - the measure of a thriving company.
- A high ratio of free cash flow to sales can be a very positive sign. For Hallenstein Glasson Holdings, the figure is an impressive 20.7%.
High Return on Capital Employed - the measure of a company growing efficiently and profitably.
- A 5-year average ROCE of more than 12 percent is a pointer to strong efficiency. For Hallenstein Glasson Holdings, the figure is an eye-catching 41.7%.
High Return on Equity (compared to peers) - the measure of a company making good profits from its assets.
- Hallenstein Glasson Holdings has a 5-year average ROE of 34.2%.
High Operating Margins (compared to peers) - the measure of a company with pricing power
- Hallenstein Glasson Holdings has a 5-year average operating margin of 11.8%.
Yes on most financial and operating metrics HLG is the envy of all retailers in NZ and probably globally.
Have a tried and true formula which generates that 30cents/40 cents dividend year in and year out
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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17-11-2020, 07:43 PM
#5318
Last edited by Beagle; 17-11-2020 at 07:49 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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17-11-2020, 07:50 PM
#5319
Originally Posted by winner69
Yes on most financial and operating metrics HLG is the envy of all retailers in NZ and probably globally.
Have a tried and true formula which generates that 30cents/40 cents dividend year in and year out
That’s what keeps it interesting, like now when the SP is bashing against its historical high prices and selling (resistance) volume increasing.
Keeping a close eye on the chart to assess market sentiment is important right now, this might make 30-40 cents return, but it can lose way more than that in capital, virtually in a heart beat.
Heck it was $1.80 this year!!! So a great ride for any one since then, but fact is it’s at previous sentiment high and people calling for another 50-100 cents based purely on FA are imo optimistic.
That call alone, for SP appreciation, points to capital sensitivity (motivation for holding at a high price) like it’d be Great if the SP goes up but if it doesn’t I can reconcile my position with the earnings. Watch that sentiment get tested when the SP turns down again. Those sentiments run for the hills.
That’s ok but they’re also the ones who’ll be first at the exit if resistance prevails and a new sentiment down sets in. I do not see any long term committed investors here who can stomach the volatility in capital purely for earnings. Not one. I’m sure they exist, but not here talking us into believing the upside is inevitable and volatility will miraculously go away forever.
Momentum traders love a dividend while they’re holding, it’s cream on top of capital gains, but momentum is what takes them out as fast as it got them in. Regardless of the narrative surrounding their position, they’re very very good momentum traders, happy to take a bonus dividend feed or two along the way.
TA says... nah, it’s flashing in big bold letters CAUTION ⚠️ Stay alert.
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17-11-2020, 07:59 PM
#5320
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
That’s what keeps it interesting, like now when the SP is bashing against its historical high prices and selling (resistance) volume increasing.
Keeping a close eye on the chart to assess market sentiment is important right now, this might make 30-40 cents return, but it can lose way more than that in capital, virtually in a heart beat.
Heck it was $1.80 this year!!! So a great ride for any one since then, but fact is it’s at previous sentiment high and people calling for another 50-100 cents based purely on FA are imo optimistic.
That call alone, for SP appreciation, points to capital sensitivity (motivation for holding at a high price) like it’d be Great if the SP goes up but if it doesn’t I can reconcile my position with the earnings. Watch that sentiment get tested when the SP turns down again. Those sentiments run for the hills.
That’s ok but they’re also the ones who’ll be first at the exit if resistance prevails and a new sentiment down sets in. I do not see any long term committed investors here who can stomach the volatility in capital purely for earnings. Not one. I’m sure they exist, but not here talking us into believing the upside is inevitable and volatility will miraculously go away forever.
Momentum traders love a dividend while they’re holding, it’s cream on top of capital gains, but momentum is what takes them out as fast as it got them in. Regardless of the narrative surrounding their position, they’re very very good momentum traders, happy to take a bonus dividend feed or two along the way.
TA says... nah, it’s flashing in big bold letters CAUTION ⚠️ Stay alert.
I still have my Serko shares as an example if you want to test long term commitment.
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