HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Baa_Baa]

I still have my Serko shares as an example if you want to test long term commitment.

I don’t know, but maybe you could’ve sold them before they gutted and bought them back at under $1, like I posted at the time. Anyway no worries they’re back like a lot of shares and everyone is happy happy joy joy 🤩

I didn’t sell my OCA but I sure bought a truck load more at slightly over half my average holding prices at the time

Sorry off topic.

So to conclude on topic, HLG frequently presents excellent buying opportunity, and capital gains selling opportunity. Earnings are the bonus on the journey. It is not a long hold stock for me, it is a momentum stock and needs to be treated as such, which I expect it will by the experts here who have proven skills trading momentum plays.

All the best

[nztx]

I still have my Serko shares as an example if you want to test long term commitment.

Knowing HLG's previous patterns & current market conditions I wouldn't shed any of holding - in fact
on weakness probably add further to the pile

I have others which I wouldn't surrender

Not to say I havent made mistakes & realised a loss on others, only to regret it later

Try ATM around this time last year. This year with a paper loss currently, it's starting to come back
& happy to bide time .. similar patterns occur with many other shares

Compare a performing HLG against PPH (No Div) FRE (No 2020 Divs) a rising FBU (no Div) and others
to see real value for investor dollar in HLG

I watched for far too long over 4 years ago before jumping in & haven't regretted it.
The rises & falls of the market across 2020 to date should have delivered a large comfort
reserve to carry any temporary SP retreats for those who took advantage of the chance.

I don't see too much SP retreat likely in current market conditions, but who knows
could be wrong

[Raz]

With all due respect mate I think there's several things you're overlooking.
1. Metrics (forward PE and dividend yield) are all a function of the risk free 10 year Govt stock rate and that's dramatically lower than last time this was over $6. This adds just over $1 by my calculations.
2. $50m cash on the balance sheet is about $35m more than average and this adds about 60 cents to fair value compared to the past.
3. Their genuine growth compared to FY19 and this has the potential to add about another 10 cps in earnings (worth about $1.50 to the share price if this growth happens...time will tell).
4. Online sales growth (the holy grail of retail), has been incredibly strong and is sector leading compared to its N.Z. peers. This is currently not being priced into the shares and I won't attempt to ascribe a value to it but its no small thing.
5. This is "anything but" yield at any price, in fact its probably the top yielding share on the NZX
6. 24 cent divvy just around the corner so the theoretical ex divvy price is really only $6.23.

I know this post won't change your mind having just sold some but maybe consider keeping what you have left ?

For those that don't know what Peat was saying earlier today in post #5302 TINA is an acronym for There is no alternative (to shares), TRINA is an acronym for "There really is no alternative" (to shares) and TRINFA is an acronym for...well...use your imagination

Another fresh all time closing high today and I am very confident there will be many more to come.

Many thanks indeed for that link Balance. Awesome article

All SPs are being rerated, I bumped a thread today with no interest because it was MCY, the point being... it closed today at $6, now in your mind compare the metrics and potential as alternative investments.

[winner69]

Momentum could take HLG to $10 in the next year ... the momentum is just so strong

No worries

[couta1]

With all due respect mate I think there's several things you're overlooking.
1. Metrics (forward PE and dividend yield) are all a function of the risk free 10 year Govt stock rate and that's dramatically lower than last time this was over $6. This adds just over $1 by my calculations.
2. $50m cash on the balance sheet is about $35m more than average and this adds about 60 cents to fair value compared to the past.
3. Their genuine growth compared to FY19 and this has the potential to add about another 10 cps in earnings (worth about $1.50 to the share price if this growth happens...time will tell).
4. Online sales growth (the holy grail of retail), has been incredibly strong and is sector leading compared to its N.Z. peers. This is currently not being priced into the shares and I won't attempt to ascribe a value to it but its no small thing.
5. This is "anything but" yield at any price, in fact its probably the top yielding share on the NZX
6. 24 cent divvy just around the corner so the theoretical ex divvy price is really only $6.23.

I know this post won't change your mind having just sold some but maybe consider keeping what you have left ?

For those that don't know what Peat was saying earlier today in post #5302 TINA is an acronym for There is no alternative (to shares), TRINA is an acronym for "There really is no alternative" (to shares) and TRINFA is an acronym for...well...use your imagination

Another fresh all time closing high today and I am very confident there will be many more to come.

Many thanks indeed for that link Balance. Awesome article

Its a great long term hold at the right price and remember i held my large lot for two and a half yrs before selling, probably would still be holding if it wasn't for facing a perfect storm situation when Covid come along and the fact they decided not to pay a divvy was the final straw for me, by that time my paper profits and a good chunk of capital had become scorched earth, I was a true long term holder of the stock with no plans on selling prior to that. The ones I sold yesterday were my daughters and a friends holding as my priority is to protect their capital, their average buy prices were $3.44 and $5.20 respectively plus divvies on top, will see how it goes but will probably deploy their monies into OCA.

[Waltzing]

we thought 5.50 lower range - 9.50 higher range if the chart keeps going as for the last 10 years. we took the 2020 little dive out of the chart.


Beagle BBB+ . update on trading is usually before dividend payment early december.

In 10 years time you wont event remember this years trading and investing. Its gone by in a flash and now its time to focus on the next potential crisis and now we know you wont know what it is or when.. Mass ejection from the sun and melt down of the grid? Now thats something we should be modelling.

If you can hedge your trades and investments and you wont be exposed to capital lose.

[Beagle]

Its a great long term hold at the right price and remember i held my large lot for two and a half yrs before selling, probably would still be holding if it wasn't for facing a perfect storm situation when Covid come along and the fact they decided not to pay a divvy was the final straw for me, by that time my paper profits and a good chunk of capital had become scorched earth, I was a true long term holder of the stock with no plans on selling prior to that. The ones I sold yesterday were my daughters and a friends holding as my priority is to protect their capital, their average buy prices were $3.44 and $5.20 respectively plus divvies on top, will see how it goes but will probably deploy their monies into OCA.

They'd get far better diversification, (arguably better returns) and proper professional management of their money in the Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin companies.
e.g. BRM total shareholder return in the last year 46% and your friends money is properly diversified http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...400/335297.pdf
Marlin total shareholder return in the last year 41.5% http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...401/335298.pdf
Kingfish total shareholder return in the last year 33.4% http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...399/335296.pdf

These days if friends ask me to recommend stocks for them I won't go there and simply direct them to one or a combination of the above funds. Its safer and better for them and me.

[winner69]

Those amazing metrics psoted yesterday put HLG in good light - ROCE, ROE, Cash Generation etc etc

One of the key drivers of that financial success is that for every $1 of stock they generate nearly $7.00 of Gross Margin. Thats a great return on their investment in stock (capital)

Briscoes manage just over $3 gross margin per $1 of stock / Warehouse Group about $2.00 and Kathmandu about $2.70

Easy to see who has the best cash generating and return on investment model eh .

[Beagle]

Those amazing metrics psoted yesterday put HLG in good light - ROCE, ROE, Cash Generation etc etc

One of the key drivers of that financial success is that for every $1 of stock they generate nearly $7.00 of Gross Margin. Thats a great return on their investment in stock (capital)

Briscoes manage just over $3 gross margin per $1 of stock / Warehouse Group about $2.00 and Kathmandu about $2.70

Easy to see who has the best cash generating and return on investment model eh .

Doesn't seem to matter which metrics you look at or what yardsticks you use, or which other N.Z. retailers you compare them too, HLG looks very attractive indeed.

[couta1]

They'd get far better diversification and proper professional management of their money in the Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin companies.

Well they have done well so far and they don't have any fees to pay. PS-They won't go wrong as OCA holders ,im sure you'd agree.