Doesn't seem to matter which metrics you look at or what yardsticks you use, or which other N.Z. retailers you compare them too, HLG looks very attractive indeed.
I don't think anybody contested HLG's attractiveness ; While I think that they offer at this stage still fair value for money (assuming their EPS stays where it used to be the last three years or so), the question is - are they cheap enough to justify buying in at this stage?
Current EPS is between 45 and 50 cents. Will these earnings stick, or will they drop back down into the twenties (as they used to be between 2014 and 2017)? How much would the share be worth based on their (10 yrs) long term average EPS of 34 cents?
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
You're completely ignoring the growth in recent years compared to earlier years...used to be ~ $200m a year turnover and now ~ $300m. I've already clearly articulated my thoughts on where earnings are heading this year mate. I've been topping up several times in recent weeks at up to $6.30. I have plenty now but won't rule out going a bit bigger.
Last edited by Beagle; 18-11-2020 at 11:03 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Well they have done well so far and they don't have any fees to pay. PS-They won't go wrong as OCA holders ,im sure you'd agree.
That's my biggest investment position and I agree it is highly likely OCA will outperform the market in the years ahead. That said KFL, BRM and MLN have all been seriously outperforming their relevant indices on a net after fees basis and their money is much better diversified and therefore lower risk. Anyway...enough said, you'll do whatever you think is best and this is all off topic anyway...
Last edited by Beagle; 18-11-2020 at 11:42 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
I don't think anybody contested HLG's attractiveness ; While I think that they offer at this stage still fair value for money (assuming their EPS stays where it used to be the last three years or so), the question is - are they cheap enough to justify buying in at this stage?
Current EPS is between 45 and 50 cents. Will these earnings stick, or will they drop back down into the twenties (as they used to be between 2014 and 2017)? How much would the share be worth based on their (10 yrs) long term average EPS of 34 cents?
Well worthwhile going back over the 2014 to 2017 period, BP because that period was not a great time for HLG - mistakes were made and the company had to spend up large and repositioned its brands. It also expanded into Australia where initial success was rather poor.
Since 2018, the repositioning has delivered excellent results and the latest update from the company bears very strong testimony to how well HLG is now positioned - especially with online sales.
Wish the HLG share price would stop consistently underperforming the NZX - been doing it for a while now
Maybe the good times have past us by - after all earnings haven't grown over the duration of the chart (F20 v F18)
Wonder if HLG will give a earnings guidance at its ASM, so that we won’t have to read between the lines in their commentary about challenging times and come to our conclusions.
Last edited by winner69; 19-11-2020 at 12:35 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
LOL that post is classic Beagle bait. You might as well just have posted, come on Beagle bite me back with your counter argument. You know full well that you and I, when we bought in back in August 2016 at ~ $2.75, have enjoyed truly outstanding returns far ahead of the NZX50 and the above timeframe you have selected is rather convenient timing and probably a kickback against my comments in the ATM thread earlier today.
So just for a laugh...seeing as I am bored, lets go there. Sticking to the same timeframe in that ATM post earlier today wherein I suggested the growth story has changed, not the timeframe you have conveniently fabricated
Since mid March 2018 when I sold ATM has gone from ~ $13 to at the time of editing this $14.43 and paid shareholders not one single cent in dividends. Return is 14.43 / 13 = only 11% compared to the NZX50 up 59% a whopping underperformance of 48 % WOW that's a very serious Ouch !!...just as well long term holders are sitting on massive outperformance from earlier years isn't it !
In mid March 2018 HLG was $4.60 and shareholders have enjoyed a total of $1.03 in fully imputed dividends since then (another 24 cents due on 15/12/20) and a share price increase of $1.83, total return $2.86 which on $4.60 is up 62% so it has outperformed the NZX 50 over that time frame and dramatically outperformed it since we bought in August 2016 at ~ $2.75.
I think its seriously underpriced relative to its peers and has excellent prospects going forward. I expect NZX50 outperformance to continue.
Looks like we're headed to over 70 cents US. You think that might help going forward
Last edited by Beagle; 19-11-2020 at 12:57 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
South AUS is in lock down as everyone knows and new variant spreads quickly... this would only have to come here. Now there is on line sales but there are many months and quarters to go before there are blue skies and calms seas ahead ... for a while. Sales from on line will be interesting in the december update and then we will all known the true picture.
Originally Posted by Beagle
; While I think that they offer at this stage still fair value for money (assuming their EPS stays where it used to be the last three years or so), the question is - are they cheap enough to justify buying in at this stage?
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WOW that's a very serious Ouch !!...just as well long term holders are sitting on massive outperformance from earlier years isn't it !
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