HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[James108]

I think there is long term value in HLG at current prices but I question those heralding a return to $5/share, it may happen but I would have sold out long before then.

[Arbroath]

I think there is long term value in HLG at current prices but I question those heralding a return to $5/share, it may happen but I would have sold out long before then.

I agree. I hold at an average of $3.02 and think the stock is worth around $4.00 but talk of $5-6 is pie in the sky to me. Too many variables that can go wrong like the NZD, rising rents and more competitors etc for this to justify $5+ like it did a few years ago. But 30c dividends should attract the punters back as long as H1 2017 comes in above $8m npat and provide those holding now with a decision whether to hold or not above $3.50.

[Beagle]

Value doesn't kick you in the head and force you to buy, it whispers quietly to you there's money to be made here. In post #561 I outlined the potential for FY17 just based on the exchange rate difference and how is we assumed nothing else changed (i.e. we still had really weird unseasonal weather, Di Humphries appointment made no difference and the effect of the full years costs they've been pulling out of the business in Fy16, (see commentary in 2016 interim report) for some strange reason didn't happen in FY17. Just the exchange rate only gives $20.5m next year up from forecast $13.5m this year.

Just this factor alone gets us back to the good days of FY15 but of course there's more to this story of potential.

There's the future effects of their cost reduction programme and a full year of those benefits to flow through in FY17, (part year FY16) and there's Di Humphries positive influence on the more attractive fashion offer at Glassons which the company has eluded too. Whether we get bizarre and unusual weather patterns like the warmest start to winter I can ever remember going forward from here is frankly anyone's guess but I think its fair to say they don't face that sort of challenge every year

The dividend yield is compelling and there's plenty of potential for profit growth from a low of FY16.

[Ghost Monkey]

Geez, this has been quite the sales pitch over the last couple days. Gotta admire your enthusiasm if nothing else.

[Biscuit]

Geez, this has been quite the sales pitch over the last couple days. Gotta admire your enthusiasm if nothing else.

Well, my bet is that its got upside from here over the next 6 months or so if the exchange rate stays on track

[winner69]

Geez, this has been quite the sales pitch over the last couple days. Gotta admire your enthusiasm if nothing else.

We'll check back again next year eh

Roger will be happy when share price over $4 ......and no doubt a few others as well

[winner69]

Latest Retail Sales data from Stats NZ showed clothing,footwear etc ingustry sales for the June quarter were up 7% on last year

That covers the start of the HLG year so even if they aren't growing share (James comment) sales growth is happening. ....at least in NZ

And if Di has got things humming - well 10% growth could be happening

Economy on fire (~4% gdp) and consumers spending heaps - even on clothes

Looking good for likes of HLG (and KMD - pity Postie Plus went bust)

I

[Biscuit]

- pity Postie Plus went bust

No, that's a good thing - less competition!

[percy]

Postie Plus lives.
New owners.
New lower everyday prices.
The menswear retailer that surprises me is The Farmers.I think they are gaining market share.

[winner69]

Postie Plus lives.
New owners.
New lower everyday prices.
The menswear retailer that surprises me is The Farmers.I think they are gaining market share.

So they do - thanks for pointing that out

Probably doing OK as well