Jeez Beagle, forecasting eps 60 cents not the usual bullish beagle
EPS 60 cents is $36m npat
If they do $24m in H121 then the last year (H220 + H121) is $36.3m - even with all covid issues. So $36m for full year would be seeing earnings decline in H2.
Surely we should add a bit of growth in --- maybe $40m full year, ie eps 67 cents
You're quite right mate. I am being super conservative with 60 cps, (far too conservative...which is unlike me). In my defense I have only had time for one coffee this morning and I did say "I think they can easily do 60 cps in earnings this year"
To be honest I haven't really given a lot of thought to the second half but I think ultra low interest rates and people's inability to travel will see retail demand remain at a very robust level. Maybe we see as much as $20m for the second half which would lead to around $44m for the year and eps of 74 cents ? I guess that raises the possibility of what on earth are they going to do with all that cash ?
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
You're quite right mate. I am being super conservative with 60 cps, (far too conservative...which is unlike me). In my defense I have only had time for one coffee this morning and I did say "I think they can easily do 60 cps in earnings this year"
To be honest I haven't really given a lot of thought to the second half but I think ultra low interest rates and people's inability to travel will see retail demand remain at a very robust level. Maybe we see as much as $20m for the second half which would lead to around $44m for the year and eps of 74 cents ? I guess that raises the possibility of what on earth are they going to do with all that cash ?
OMG - .74 times 21.8 gives share price of $16.13
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
LOL that would be very nice but 21.8 is the average of the other two retailers on last years covid affected earnings. I don't think we can expect it to trade at that multiple on this years earnings but at $10 its fairly priced compared to its peers and as mentioned, I think HLG has much better growth prospects going forward.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Yes thank you Balance for keeping it "Real".
Bit of excessive exuberance there on the P/E front methinks...trending to long term averages / likely correction etc...
Last edited by Davexl; 03-02-2021 at 01:05 PM.
All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford
Yes...I was pondering what is the right multiple for FY21 and I arrived at almost the same conclusion. I am thinking 15-16 times current year earnings based on their multi year track record of strong growth in Australia with Glassons. I think the shares are worth $10.15 now and my price target for 12 months hence is $11.50.
The yield could be VERY interesting. Unless they have plans for the substantial ~ $50m cash on hand I expect they could pay out close to the whole years earnings this year.
Canny investors will know this trades cum a likely twenty something cent fully imputed dividend likely payable in April...or maybe its 30 cents ?
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Originally Posted by Balance
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