HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[boysy]

Roger the strong dollar will continue to force the RBNZs hand to cut further to ramp up inflation . more competition and lower dollar in the year ahead no doubt about either which will hurt margins. Might be a divi yield play but longer term I can't see capital appreciation longer term.

[see weed]

Strange dividend schedule though, paying in April and December

Got some yesterday at 2.70 after selling my FBU at 10

That's funny, I sold some for $2.70 the same day, which I bought a month earlier for 2.64, and bought AIR and ATM, but will buy back into HLG closer to their div pay out.

[Beagle]

Roger the strong dollar will continue to force the RBNZs hand to cut further to ramp up inflation . more competition and lower dollar in the year ahead no doubt about either which will hurt margins. Might be a divi yield play but longer term I can't see capital appreciation longer term.

Even if they cut another 50 bps our interest rates are still some of the highest in the world. Dollar stronger for longer IMO.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Quote from earlier in the thread

"One of percy's favourite quotes is 'price follows earnings' (or something like that)."

One of Phaedras many quotations was:
"Price follows volume ...."

HLG Prices downloaded from Yahoo Finance

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=...=16&f=2016&g=w

Monthly Summary

Date Open High Low Close Average Volume
1 Aug 2016 2.65 2.86 2.63 2.85 96,800
1 Jul 2016 2.65 2.70 2.59 2.62 46,900
1 Jun 2016 2.72 2.76 2.65 2.65 40,400
2 May 2016 2.89 2.96 2.70 2.72 43,600

Is something happening here ...

Weekly Summary:
From 27,700 in June 2016 to 134,000 in August 2016

HLG Open High Low Close Average volume
15-Aug-16 2.70 2.86 2.7 2.85 134,000
8-Aug-16 2.68 2.84 2.67 2.71 106,200
1-Aug-16 2.65 2.74 2.63 2.68 56,000
25-Jul-16 2.63 2.65 2.59 2.62 54,400
18-Jul-16 2.65 2.68 2.61 2.61 60,600
11-Jul-16 2.65 2.7 2.65 2.66 38,900
4-Jul-16 2.68 2.7 2.64 2.64 37,700
27-Jun-16 2.67 2.7 2.65 2.68 27,700

[boysy]

Roger our interest rates will continue to fall while the US is looking to raise their rates albeit off a very low base. The NZD carry trade is in favour due to the interest rate differential but as our rates continue to fall and US at the very least stay stable look to see the NZD drop later on this year.

[Rep]

One store...I'm quaking in my boots LOL. I see an up day, check the exchange rate, nearly 73 cents...fantastic for importers margin's ! There's a clear break up through the 100 dat MA so for a TA point of view it seems clear the SP recovery trend has begun

Roger - if you had seen the queues to enter H&M when it opened in Melbourne and in Sydney, I'd be a touch more concerned as they have generally scaled up stores reasonably quickly.
They are a desirable anchor retailer in a number of locations in Australia, Europe and in the US - whilst HLG has been a consistent divvy stock for a long time, I'd be keeping an eye on H&M.

H&M and Zara are both businesses pitched at affordable AND fashionable. They haven't become behemoths globally without knowing a thing or two about building share and rolling out stores. They also have for the most part, pricing parity across their stores.

In the same way, IKEA opened with one store in Australia, they have a considerable business in Australia quite quickly at the expense of traditional retailers.

PS - I wouldn't be looking at the USD/NZD cross for H&M either.... it's more like the Euro/NZD

[Beagle]

Not worried Boysy. I hold many stocks that would benefit from the currency being a little lower, (beauty of a well diversified portfolio), and I am working my numbers for FY17 with HLG on an average exchange rate of 70 cents U.S., something they'll easily be able to achieve with forward cover now the spot rate is close to 73. U.S. raising rates will be at a snails pace in my opinion and interest rates world-wide with subdued growth will stay ultra low for the foreseeable future in my opinion. I think RBNZ will need some new tools in their toolkit.

[Raz]

Roger - if you had seen the queues to enter H&M when it opened in Melbourne and in Sydney, I'd be a touch more concerned as they have generally scaled up stores reasonably quickly.
They are a desirable anchor retailer in a number of locations in Australia, Europe and in the US - whilst HLG has been a consistent divvy stock for a long time, I'd be keeping an eye on H&M.

H&M and Zara are both businesses pitched at affordable AND fashionable. They haven't become behemoths globally without knowing a thing or two about building share and rolling out stores. They also have for the most part, pricing parity across their stores.

In the same way, IKEA opened with one store in Australia, they have a considerable business in Australia quite quickly at the expense of traditional retailers.

PS - I wouldn't be looking at the USD/NZD cross for H&M either.... it's more like the Euro/NZD

H & M are well advance on several stores....

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Quote from earlier in the thread

"One of percy's favourite quotes is 'price follows earnings' (or something like that)."

One of Phaedras many quotations was:
"Price follows volume ...."

HLG Prices downloaded from Yahoo Finance

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=...=16&f=2016&g=wIs something happening here ...

Weekly Summary:
From 27,700 in June 2016 to 134,000 in August 2016

Reformat table in a PDF to make clearer

HLG.pdf

[Beagle]

Reformat table

HLG.pdf

He was a wise one. With steadily increasing volumes of late obviously I'm not the only one that sees real value in the stock.