HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[nztx]

Sooner or later the inhabitants hiding under the large rock are going to wake up and start
exploring for HLG shares from afar over yonder, if they haven't already started ..

[iceman]

Sooner or later the inhabitants hiding under the large rock are going to wake up and start
exploring for HLG shares from afar over yonder, if they haven't already started ..

What brand was your Easter egg and what liquid was inside it ? Might try to get one next year myself

[Habits]

What brand was your Easter egg and what liquid was inside it ? Might try to get one next year myself

Nicely put

[Habits]

Covid 19 coronavirus profits: Was pandemic a blessing for NZX-listed retail companies?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12431781

Paywalled sorry

Of the three analysts spoken to all were negative on future earnings prospects putting the revenue growth down to diversion of holiday funds and pentup demand. Carolyn Holmes at Shareclarity "warned ... the pandemic-induced profit bubble would pop". Which seems to justify in their minds the similar earnings multiples to pre-pandemic

The reporter tabulated profit, revenue amd dividends but was remiss not including yields imo

[Ferg]

Of the three analysts spoken to all were negative on future earnings prospects putting the revenue growth down to diversion of holiday funds and pent up demand. Carolyn Holmes at Shareclarity "warned ... the pandemic-induced profit bubble would pop". Which seems to justify in their minds the similar earnings multiples to pre-pandemic

Sorry for the long post - my thoughts = Yeah Nah to that article.

This is interesting because in my observations, and I think I can also speak for winner and his observations re big box hardware stores, what we saw in May/June 2020 was the clearing of the backlog of pent up demand from the lockdown in March/April 2020. The pent up demand came about due to the inability to access certain items during the lockdown. I haven't (can't, pay walled) read the article so to claim the pent up demand extended right through the end of 2020 into 2021 is IMO a long bow to draw. However, given the huge growth in top line revenues in mid 2020, that will be hard to beat in 2021 (and maybe in some cases replicate) so we may see slower or no growth in Q2 and Q3 2021. Although Q2 includes April which was mostly shut last year so April gains may offset May and June declines. In summary, this does not necessarily mean a decline in top line revenues given what I am seeing is a "new normal" level of activity. My clients are still showing no signs of reduced demand, and whilst we are still seeing growth, the growth rate is expected to slow.

Also, I think we have had a 2 speed economy for the last 12 months. Whilst the regions have been tearing along in 5th gear for the past 11 months, anecdotally Auckland and Queenstown (and Northland?) have been struggling in second gear. Any decline in growth in the regions may be partially offset by a resurgence of spend in Auckland. Unless they are sitting on funds for that elusive overseas holiday or they have lost their jobs.....it's hard to tell with so many moving parts.

However, I do agree that spend that would have been earmarked for overseas holidays has been diverted to local spend. We are definitely seeing a surge in spending on properties with extra funds flowing into retail and cars etc. How long this continues remains to be seen, but in discussions with friends and neighbours, those that normally travel frequently (especially to escape the winter) are cautious about resuming overseas travel in the short term while the virus is still rampant overseas. Most are talking about resuming travelling in 2022, assuming there are no other setbacks.

Also, as we went through lockdown in 2020 we were forecasting doom and gloom in about June/July 2020. As each month passed the expected month of doom kept being pushed out another month or two. About 6 months ago (?) we gave up on that and have embraced the new normal - albeit with a cautious eye to forward orders and knowing where we can cull costs if sales collapse.

In summary I believe some businesses will come out of the pandemic stronger and I think HLG fits into that category, along with FPH & FRE to name only 2 others. Interesting times indeed.

[nztx]

What brand was your Easter egg and what liquid was inside it ? Might try to get one next year myself

Actually the last couple of dividends bought two large baskets, with a pile left over for years to come ..

what was your favourite flavour ?

[nztx]

Covid 19 coronavirus profits: Was pandemic a blessing for NZX-listed retail companies?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12431781

Paywalled sorry

Of the three analysts spoken to all were negative on future earnings prospects putting the revenue growth down to diversion of holiday funds and pentup demand. Carolyn Holmes at Shareclarity "warned ... the pandemic-induced profit bubble would pop". Which seems to justify in their minds the similar earnings multiples to pre-pandemic

The reporter tabulated profit, revenue amd dividends but was remiss not including yields imo

I've hinted at this before posting here - with references towards normalised trading conditions & results again
with reporting in next 6-12 months

Uniquely positioned businesses may come out better.. those who have done work adapting even better

And then there will the others who see downturn or mediocre

and a few IPO's who rode high in Covid Trading / visibility - we know who they are likely & where the market
has already started relocating / rating them to .. possibly with further slippage to follow ..

[Beagle]

I think the apparel stats out on both sides of the Tasman show there has been no strong bounce-back or "revenge spending" after Covid lockdowns. Yes there's been a lot of spending on ones house as people nest more and from what I have witnessed a lot of people are looking for new hobbies, (try ordering a new popular model boat or campervan and see what the wait lists are like, I have given up).

I think Glassons Australia market share will continue to grow strongly in the years ahead and HLG is still priced as a no growth company. The last day it trades cum the 23 cent fully imputed interim dividend is Wednesday 7 April. After that we look forward to possible inclusion in the NZX50 later this year and a potentially record final dividend for FY21 just before Christmas.

[Waltzing]

imagine if NZ50.. will move from KMD then...its retail but you need a new outfit to travel on those new fancy outfitted econo classes with sleeping births.

[winner69]

I think Glassons in particular are monotonectally syndicating it’s bricks-and-clicks strategy very well.

Leading to significantly higher levels of market presence.