HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Waltzing]

It was obvious from the start of COVID that the world was going to change and that if you were a person with O2 performance crowds were no longer a place you would want to go.

If you do it might be with a rebreather that filters the AIR.

Clothing retailers that also stock sophisticated fashionable masks should be all the rage.

Your back pack has your disinfectant virus killing spray..from KMD.

[sb9]

Lockdowns would certainly sort out the strong from the weak, the vulnerable from the beneficiaries - and we have the benefit of last year’s lockdown to learn from.

We all know that companies like HLG with a strong online platform continue to perform during lockdowns.

We also know that the fiscal & monetary stimulus which will be pumped into the economy will cushion many industry sectors, housing in particular.

Now if you have shares in a pure hospitality play like Savor, you may indeed need to take action to reduce exposure before a lockdown happens.

Yes, we've evidence from last year that COVID proved to be boon for retailers with great online and digital platform. And all good companies like HLG, Briscoes, WHS and MHJ have pivoted themselves well for any further lockdowns.

[Beagle]

"delta lockdown jitters"

if lockdowns are initiated the printing machine starts over and the wage hands outs start all over again just like in AUS and online retails just keeps pumping...Looked like Biggest saturday numbers at centre place hamilton since covid started.

NSW situation now described as "Out of Control" and cant be eliminated.

Thats serious and may well hit the share market.

7 weeks into the lockdown in NSW and the numbers keep climbing. Hard to know how they're going to stop the spread ?
Totally accept what Balance has said that stimulus kicks in, wage subsidies get pumped into the economy and people will spend online especially with excellent online platform Glassons Australia has but some things are increasingly clear.
1. The delta variant in Australia is not being controlled by current measures and the numbers are expanding. Lockdown fatigue is already very real in Australia. Can they eliminate it and if so how ?
2. Delta and other pending variants of Covid are highly likely to mean its imprudent for Glassons to materially expand its retail footprint in Australia in the foreseeable future...I am thinking several years.
3. There will be a material effect on FY22's earnings from, at best, a lengthy and protracted lockdown in many parts of Australia.
4. Point 2 means the growth rate of Glassons Australia in the foreseeable future will be materially lower than I was previously assuming and this affects any DCF valuation.
5. With the lower growth prospects of Glassons Australia the metrics of WHS become more attractive
6. I'm no fan-boy of Cindy but the go-hard and go-early approach has been vastly more effective than the softly-softly approach of the Australian authorities.
7. HLG is now less likely to be included in the NZX50 anytime soon.
8. Clear break down through 100 day moving average support level cannot be denied.

For what its worth I have been reducing in recent weeks and reallocating to WHS which is now my preferred retail investment.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

7 weeks into the lockdown in NSW and the numbers keep climbing. Hard to know how they're going to stop the spread ?
Totally accept what Balance has said that stimulus kicks in, wage subsidies get pumped into the economy and people will spend online especially with excellent online platform Glassons Australia has but some things are increasingly clear.
1. The delta variant in Australia is not being controlled by current measures and the numbers are expanding. Lockdown fatigue is already very real in Australia. Can they eliminate it and if so how ?
2. Delta and other pending variants of Covid are highly likely to mean its imprudent for Glassons to materially expand its retail footprint in Australia in the foreseeable future...I am thinking several years.
3. There will be a material effect on FY22's earnings from, at best, a lengthy and protracted lockdown in many parts of Australia.
4. Point 2 means the growth rate of Glassons Australia in the foreseeable future will be materially lower than I was previously assuming and this affects any DCF valuation.
5. With the lower growth prospects of Glassons Australia the metrics of WHS become more attractive
6. I'm no fan-boy of Cindy but the go-hard and go-early approach has been vastly more effective than the softly-softly approach of the Australian authorities.
7. HLG is now less likely to be included in the NZX50 anytime soon.
8. Clear break down through 100 day moving average support level cannot be denied.

I have been reducing in recent weeks and reallocating to WHS which is now my preferred retail investment.

I had another use for cash and actually exited HLG a few weeks back - was not at all due to thinking it was a top or expecting any downside (on the contrary was a little disappointed I was exiting at that time).

I think you possibly might be being a tad pessimistic over future OZ expansion plans. Looking around the world in countries where covid is endemic (USA, UK etc) and retail is back to normal for the most part (albeit with some more online than there used to be), so I don’t think long term expansion plans will be put off, though short term (next 12 months) might indeed be all on hold (although might be a good time to get some opportunistic deals on leases etc)

In USA/UK you either had covid or are vaccinated/soon to be vaccinated, and so outside of wearing masks more often retail visits are not being avoided any more. I think in a worse case scenario where covid becomes endemic in Australia, they will end up in the exact same place where retail will be fine.

[Beagle]

Fair comment. For me I see WHS metrics as more compelling and their risk is lower. HLG a fabulous company, very well managed and trading about fair value. I still own a modest parcel.

[Leftfield]

For what its worth I have been reducing in recent weeks and reallocating to WHS which is now my preferred retail investment.

Good on you Beagle, a wise precaution........ FWIW I've also been buying some WHS recently (the only retailer I hold.)

[Waltzing]

RE: Rebalancing by MR B.

Portfolio allocation for HLG was reduced by 50 percent at 6.50 and by a farther 50 of remaining percentage above 7.20.

Allocation 2.5% across 5 portfolios.

The dividend % high probability remains constant over the next 2 years.

SP handle may break down but only to regain previous highs in 2 years time.

What 2 years when the stock has been going this long..

Are holders investors? of course they are.

Stocks for trading are fully valued dividend paying stocks and this longer term is not fully priced but only its not sticky holders have made it a trade.

It not actually a trading stock even though you may have traded it in the past as an investment community.

[Waltzing]

Market likes the price and the yield..Volumen up.

[winner69]

Market likes the price and the yield..Volumen up.

Be back above 7 bucks by end of day …or certainly by tomorrow

[Baa_Baa]

Market likes the price and the yield..Volumen up.

Exit volume up. 200 MA breakdown accelerating SP decline. Ignore the chart at your peril.