HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[stoploss]

Graeme Popplewell the CEO said to the NBR that the F16 result was at “absolute bottom of the barrel” and that profit figures should increase in coming years.

My first rough cut forecast for F17 is assuming 5% sales growth, 2% points better margin and expenses up 2% which gives NPaT just over $20m


EPS 34 cents - merits a share price of ? -- where ? > $3.16 I reckon

must be a fair chance the sales don't pick up . A lot of competition with new labels coming into NZ , Zara opening soon , DJ in Wellington . Going to be a lot harder to attract the average punters cash .
Difficult industry , rents rising all round town as well.

[winner69]

must be a fair chance the sales don't pick up . A lot of competition with new labels coming into NZ , Zara opening soon , DJ in Wellington . Going to be a lot harder to attract the average punters cash .
Difficult industry , rents rising all round town as well.

H&M opening AKL this weekend

HLG probably put up the white flag and say it's just too hard and close down you reckon stoploss?

[Ghost Monkey]

Nah, you'll be right Winner. Buying in at $2.70's or thereabouts was a smart move and that is reflected in their current price. And you'll be continuing to smile over the coming year.

But not too sure if I would want to hold these long term.

You read that article in the Economist a couple months ago on retail stores in the UK? Granted, different country, different situation, but if a similar situation develops here, and with these new brands arriving its certainly a possibility, though it won't happen overnight, you won't want to be holding Hallensteins.

But short term looks very good.

[Jantar]

must be a fair chance the sales don't pick up . A lot of competition with new labels coming into NZ , Zara opening soon , DJ in Wellington . Going to be a lot harder to attract the average punters cash .
Difficult industry , rents rising all round town as well.

Zara? DJ? ..... Never heard of them. Do they offer a better quality product at the same price? Do they offer a better quality at a higher price? Are they like the the Warehouse, cheaper, but providing rubbish? Or do they compete directly on quality and price?

If it is the latter and they will compete directly on quality and price, are they going to instantly appear all around the country including the smaller towns where HLG have a presence?

So many factors that may or may not affect HLG that suggest we shouldn't be too worried.

[James108]

Zara? DJ? ..... Never heard of them. Do they offer a better quality product at the same price? Do they offer a better quality at a higher price? Are they like the the Warehouse, cheaper, but providing rubbish? Or do they compete directly on quality and price?

If it is the latter and they will compete directly on quality and price, are they going to instantly appear all around the country including the smaller towns where HLG have a presence?

So many factors that may or may not affect HLG that suggest we shouldn't be too worried.

If you have never heard of Zara I don't think you should be investing in hlg

[Ghost Monkey]

Not heard of Zara?!?

One of the biggest clothing chains in the world!!!! Wildly popular with the young.

Huge threat to Hallensteins. But then its only one store in NZ so far. Not sure how online sales will compete.

[Jantar]

If you have never heard of Zara I don't think you should be investing in hlg

Oh? And why is that?

I've just done on search on the word "Zara" in HLG's annual report, and it looks like they haven't mentioned them as a threat, or in any other context either.

[Ghost Monkey]

Zara is a part of Inditex group. The largest apparel clothing retailer in the world.

The didn't become the biggest by selling over-priced crappy clothes.

[Ghost Monkey]

Put another way.

Goliath just waded through the seas and stepped ashore in NZ.

So what is David gonna do???

Your money, your bet.

[James108]

Having said that I still think there is value in HLG at current price and continue to hold (bought in at 3.07).

Also Jantars response illustrates the brand power that glassons/hallensteins have over Zara in NZ at the moment.