HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[winner69]

That's because there is no point in buying clothes when you cant go out. I have said this before. BRG WHS and MHJ sell goods that you can actually use during lockdown. New t-shirts, shorts, dresses etc... why bother..

Anyways im getting worried about retail in general. I went out in the weekend and the shops looked so so busy. Easy to see santa for the little ones. Usually have to queue for an hour. Maybe christmas trading will be a flop?

I wouldn't think queuing up and sitting on santa's lap would be the safest thing to do in these covid times ..... though I haven't been to see santa for years

[winner69]

Rawz - bear in mind that this century on a rolling 4 quarter basis Core Retail sales in NZ have never gone backwards .... growth fell to 0.1% once

So your 'worry' may only mean subdued sales growth ..... but in saying that many retailers plead poverty when this happens

[BlackPeter]

I wouldn't think queuing up and sitting on santa's lap would be the safest thing to do in these covid times ..... though I haven't been to see santa for years

Heard recently on the radio that 700 Santas died last year alone in the US of Covid. Dangerous job - while this year might be better (at least they had a chance to vaccinate) it might be better they stop this nonsense before the world runs out of Santas ... which probably would not be good for business ...

https://www.koin.com/news/health/cor...n-santa-claus/

[Rawz]

Rawz - bear in mind that this century on a rolling 4 quarter basis Core Retail sales in NZ have never gone backwards .... growth fell to 0.1% once

So your 'worry' may only mean subdued sales growth ..... but in saying that many retailers plead poverty when this happens

Thats interesting W69.

I wonder if the rolling avg will change this time and show that it has gone backwards? Because of the covid situation. In normal times we usually have 300k overseas visitors in the country on any given month. Spending a portion of their travel money in retail shops. During initial covid outbreak and right up until March this year we have had less than 10k per month. The nz consumer revenge spend covered last year but I am now starting to think that all that pent up demand is waning and some tough OR sluggish times are ahead for retail in nz and aus.

HLG management said profits will be down this year compared to last. Could be trading on a high 14-15 forward p/e? Probably too much for retail ay?

Disc. Hold WHS and MHJ but posting my thoughts on retail to see the counter arguments

[Beagle]

Deeply impressive. Let's not forget that they were struggling to break even with Glasson Au in 2014-2016. Contrast that now with just over 49% of group profitability coming from over the ditch! Glassons Au earned 27.5 cps last year and the CAGR in eps over the last 3 years has been 27% per annum. (Can't use my standard 5 year eps growth measurements as growth in eps from a loss of $1.9m in 2016 gives a nonsense answer).

What we can say with quite some assurance is that they have really cracked the Au market and that much was not completely obvious back in 2018 when the shares were trading on a PE of 13.7. Further, the potential for ongoing strong growth in Australia with their very lite existing store footprint and a total addressable market of more than 5 times the size here seems obvious.

In my opinion the key to understanding the value embedded within the group is to break it into valuing two segments.
Choose you own PE for Glassons Au which had 27.5 cps earnings last year and eps CAGR of 27% per annum. 30 ?
Then choose your PE for the rest of the group (eps 28 cps last year) that has been ostensibly flat for many years. 11 ?

There is no analyst coverage so people have to work this out for themselves.

Do I think Balance has become unbalanced for thinking of this in due course as a $10 stock ? Absolutely not !!...but good things take time and in the meantime there's those handsome dividends to enjoy

I answered your question a while back Rawz. To help you out I have added common multiples for stocks with CAGR's in blue. I'll leave you to do the maths.

[Waltzing]

really its a BARGAIN still...

AUS OCR isnt going anywhere for a while until inflation data Kanga kicks the F.... out of the central bank...

Bit like china got sick of trying the thump the heck out of them... KANGA's just bounce back.... they just dont know when there beaten..]

They are loud... and not silly... just look at that AUSSI icon...actress Rebel Watson.. she just never gives up..

Aussi are going to shop and nothing is going to stop them...

[Rawz]

I answered your question a while back Rawz. To help you out I have added common multiples for stocks with CAGR's in blue. I'll leave you to do the maths.

Ah yes I forgot about this post thanks for the reminder Beagle, its an excellent way of breaking down the lofty (lol) multiple. Okay I accept the HLG multiple is fair.

I think I was just thrown by my trips around Auckland this weekend just gone. Got me down on retail in general. I feel like my head/gut is firmly with the majority of how middle class NZ is thinking and i/we spent up large last 12 months. New fridge, new home office setup, new couch & ottoman, new trampoline, new bikes, new dining room table and chairs omg im scaring myself as the list could go on lol- also got some art work. Now I dont really need to buy anything for awhile. Looking to do more restaurant/bar spending and domestic tourism instead.

I think construction, service sector and financials could be better home for money going into 2022. Retail has had a great year after all. Could be flat now.

[Beagle]

Ah yes I forgot about this post thanks for the reminder Beagle, its an excellent way of breaking down the lofty (lol) multiple. Okay I accept the HLG multiple is fair.

I think I was just thrown by my trips around Auckland this weekend just gone. Got me down on retail in general. I feel like my head/gut is firmly with the majority of how middle class NZ is thinking and i/we spent up large last 12 months. New fridge, new home office setup, new couch & ottoman, new trampoline, new bikes, new dining room table and chairs omg im scaring myself as the list could go on lol- also got some art work. Now I dont really need to buy anything for awhile. Looking to do more restaurant/bar spending and domestic tourism instead.

I think construction, service sector and financials could be better home for money going into 2022. Retail has had a great year after all. Could be flat now.

I don't disagree with you mate...people have spent up large on nesting in the last 2 years but not much on apparel Surely all the handsome and pretty young people will want new outfits to make a splash ? https://www.glassons.com/

[winner69]

Hope Grant wasn’t advising some not to go to Glassons or Hallensteins

New Zealand's private debt levels remain high compared to the rest of the world and some borrowers will have to "cut their cloth" with rising interest rates, Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson says.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7EK5AEABA7CIU/

[Waltzing]

"private debt levels"

of course they are...

pot calling something else black.... HLG is AUS powered, who cares... its the AUSSI retail shopper that powers HLG.