HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Muse]

I suppose 866,000 Instagram followers / $250m total sales a year / of which say $90m online

Mot into these metrics but I betcha the marketing dept would say that's an amazing conversion rate on Return on market spend

Those are outstanding metrics for sure - no debate . Gives you a feel for how their customers perceive them & how they are able to grow in australia (ie anyone can go roll out stores in australia - but you need customers who love them to make it work)

FM - Mate you have a classic case of "paralysis by analysis" ... The fact of the matter is if you want to conjure up dire predictions you should sell all retailers.

No paralysis here. I'm 100% sold on the quality of the business. And I am determined to become a shareholder, I am just contemplating when and at what price. It's not my intention to be a conjurer of dire predictions - the moving pieces are on the horizon & being observed & discussed by economists & market participants in a range of industries - so *if* they occur the potential operational & financial flow through to HLG interests me. We are all mindful of these things and that informs our gut instinct - jotting down in a list probably makes it more pronounced. Anyway - even if these events do transpire - not sure my scenario qualifies as a dire prediction - down a buck or two before rebounding & growing thereafter - not a dire outcome for an apparel retailer being impacted by cyclicality

[see weed]

FM - Mate you have a classic case of "paralysis by analysis" The scenario you outlined is applicable as a possible future for all retailers. You will have seen my recent analysis wherein I articulated the value of Glasson's Aust and its proven high growth.

The fact of the matter is if you want to conjure up dire predictions you should sell all retailers.

HLG is very cheap relative to its peers and has a proven track record of high growth in Australia unlike any of its peers. Its really that simple. If you're going to hold any retailer I think this is the one to hold. Most people are well and truly done and dusted with expenditure related to nesting and are looking to let their hair down in a big way with socialising / peacocking. Apparel is going to have a sustained tailwind for at least 12 months in my view. HLG has about 25% of all sales online which is best in class by a long way.
No debt, high stock turn, management with a huge stake, strong margins...and most of all heaps of growth to come in Australia. Did you know their store footprint with Glassons Aust is 33 and with Glassons N.Z. its 36 ? That's right, less stores in Australia at present than N.Z. and yet the total addressable market there is well over 5 times the size of N.Z. Here's my hint to you mate, mull over the opportunity for ongoing strong growth they have over there.

You are right, Too much analysis causes paralysis. Have been in that situation many a time, also happy with big div. last Friday, and only 14 weeks until the next one. I sent you a pm. today, but not too sure if you got it. Not very good with all this technology.

[Rawz]

Ive decided to wait for the AGM before i invest

[winner69]

Ive decided to wait for the AGM before i invest

......you waiting for not so good news and getting them a buck cheaper .... clever move

[Rawz]

......you waiting for not so good news and getting them a buck cheaper .... clever move

Your consumer confidence post on whs thread earlier today scared me. Your fault I didnt invest this morning, W69

Have sold my WHS shares. Ready to go.

Maybe i just buy more Harmoney shares instead

[winner69]

beagle me old mate - don't forget to get the bakers first thing in the morning .... the meeting is early .... and they might even still be warm

Why not treat yourself --- get custard squares or chocolate eclairs or maybe a choc fudge cake

and dont forget your vaccine pass ... face mask ... and scan in

[Waltzing]

"choc fudge cake"

No NO NOOOOO!!!

the virus loves this stuff... bad... Bad ... Very BAD!!!

Kiwi Fruit smoothie and banana for breakfest...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

More good news - record retail spending. I prefer to rely on hard facts rather than wishy washy “confidence” thoughts.

RECORD SPENDING
Worldline (Paymark) is reporting that with just five days left till Christmas, spending at retail stores is trending at record levels. While the easing of Auckland’s Covid-19-induced boundary restrictions last week allowed for more movement of people across the country resulting in higher spending on accommodation in the Bay of Plenty, Waikato and Auckland/Northland regions, the dominant pattern across the nation was the ongoing surge in spending ahead of Christmas Day.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Your consumer confidence post on whs thread earlier today scared me. Your fault I didnt invest this morning, W69

Have sold my WHS shares. Ready to go.

Maybe i just buy more Harmoney shares instead

I presume this is sarcasm? No one would seriously base an investment decision on one (notoriously inaccurate) consumer confidence survey?

[Waltzing]

westpac confidence survey wasnt very chipper saying house hold balance sheets in 2021 has not growth in wealth... well except for housing..