HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Beagle]

Lease adjustments when stores cannot open is fair and reasonable. Landlords cannot expect to be immune from Covid.
FY22 was always going to be a challenge, as I have predicted many times already. People will be desperate to go out peacocking again when Omricon is over and all those young handsome and pretty young things will want lots of new clothes to go and strut their stuff. Most of these young things don't have a mortgage so have immunity to higher mortgage rates.

[winner69]

I 'calculate' that sales for the last six weeks of the half were up 2% on pcp

Based on a sales seasonality model I have for HLG (a few years history) ,,,, a few assumptions ....and what they say sales have been tracking at full year announcement and at the ASM

Any growth is better than going backwards .... and gives an idea how H2 might have started

[Beagle]

I 'calculate' that sales for the last six weeks of the half were up 2% on pcp

Based on a sales seasonality model I have for HLG (a few years history) ,,,, a few assumptions ....and what they say sales have been tracking at full year announcement and at the ASM

Any growth is better than going backwards .... and gives an idea how H2 might have started

2% up on last years record sales (which were up 22% on the year before) shows very credible current trading performance now that all stores are open and trading and gives a good clue to how sales might track in the second half.

There's always sunshine after rain and once the Covid storm has passed I am very confident the years of strong growth Glassons enjoyed before Covid will continue after it has passed. I am forecasting 2 x 20 cent dividends this year which is far from shabby considering its such an incredibly challenging year. Like I said yesterday, HLG is a classic dividend hounds stock and I am a dividend hound so this is tailor made for me.

[Rawz]

Lease adjustments when stores cannot open is fair and reasonable. Landlords cannot expect to be immune from Covid.
FY22 was always going to be a challenge, as I have predicted many times already. People will be desperate to go out peacocking again when Omricon is over and all those young handsome and pretty young things will want lots of new clothes to go and strut their stuff. Most of these young things don't have a mortgage so have immunity to higher mortgage rates.

Do you still actually believe that mate? It was a good theory before but now seems like a throw away line.

I was expecting the peacocking theory to play out over Q2, over summer..
Lockdowns Q1, therefore pent up demand + summer peacocking = outstanding Q2. Doesnt seem like it happened. Otherwise surely the update would have touched on how great Q2 was and miles ahead of PCP, all the other retailers do that.. Q2 summer/ xmas trading possibly was very average which is a worry

EDIT. I see master winner has calc 2% Q2 pcp growth. Definitely no peacocking there. And no real catch up from Q1 lockdowns.
(BTW- Maybe im being too hard on HLG)

[Beagle]

Do you still actually believe that mate? It was a good theory before but now seems like a throw away line.

I was expecting the peacocking theory to play out over Q2, over summer..
Lockdowns Q1, therefore pent up demand + summer peacocking = outstanding Q2. Doesnt seem like it happened. Otherwise surely the update would have touched on how great Q2 was and miles ahead of PCP, all the other retailers do that.. Q2 summer/ xmas trading possibly was very average which is a worry

They've been doing it really tough in Australia this summer with heaps of Omricon cases. People have been too scared to go out peacocking.
Sales since all stores reopened look very satisfactory to me.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Do you still actually believe that mate? It was a good theory before but now seems like a throw away line.

I was expecting the peacocking theory to play out over Q2, over summer..
Lockdowns Q1, therefore pent up demand + summer peacocking = outstanding Q2. Doesnt seem like it happened. Otherwise surely the update would have touched on how great Q2 was and miles ahead of PCP, all the other retailers do that.. Q2 summer/ xmas trading possibly was very average which is a worry

Don’t see how Omicron couldn’t be temporally impacting discretionary retail in the short term. Just an anecdote, but my better half hasn’t had one of her traditional weekend retail therapy sessions for several weeks now that Omicron is in the wild. At least the credit card is getting a rest.

[Rawz]

Don’t see how Omicron couldn’t be temporally impacting discretionary retail in the short term. Just an anecdote, but my better half hasn’t had one of her traditional weekend retail therapy sessions for several weeks now that Omicron is in the wild. At least the credit card is getting a rest.

Probably because she is like my better half and bought everything she needed for the house during the great retail boom of 2020/2021. I dont want to sound like a broken record but cant see retail going well for a few years. Maybe just 'satisfactory' like Beagle says. 2% growth is below inflation thou..... thinking about it i would down grade it to 'disappointing'. needs to be a 10 p/e max. Maybe 8?

[winner69]

I see Glassons has 700,000 Instagram followers ….13,000 more than just before Christmas

This could be a good metric to sssess how peacocking is going

[Old mate]

That's the future. Instagram and online shopping.
Hlg got that sorted.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Probably because she is like my better half and bought everything she needed for the house during the great retail boom of 2020/2021. I dont want to sound like a broken record but cant see retail going well for a few years. Maybe just 'satisfactory' like Beagle says. 2% growth is below inflation thou..... thinking about it i would down grade it to 'disappointing'. needs to be a 10 p/e max. Maybe 8?

Oh woe is the husband who assumes retail shopping will end when “everything needed for the house” has already been obtained.