HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Balance]

Check MLN thread to know how your " Legend " was ramping it at 1.55 + .....but all is forgotten if money made on HLG ...well done buddy !!!

Know the poster and know how they play.

Essential!

[alokdhir]

Know the poster and know how they play.

Essential!

Thats exactly I was trying to put across ....Legends are in our mind only if we dont see the whole picture ....

[Rawz]

I hear ya alokdhir but Beagle did the numbers on the other place in detail and was right. Give credit where credit is due.

Balance will get similar praise if he is right about an OCA cap raise..

FM got Smartpay correct very early and is also a legend.

I’ll give you praise if you make a big call on something and are right

I’m a fair man. There’s lots of legends around actually

[Onemootpoint]

It has always been worth a lot more than it has been trading at imo - lack of interest from brokers, analysts and instos due to it not being in the NZX50.

Now they have no option but to take interest.

They will find a well managed company with an excellent track record and a reliable high dividend yielder. And an outstanding conservative balance sheet with cash in the bank - similar to Briscoes.

And with its inclusion in the NZX50, they are going to have to pay up to get set as the stock is tightly held by mostly retail investors and management/directors.

Happy times ahead!

Well summarised.
Acknowledged by others elsewhere too.

[alokdhir]

I hear ya alokdhir but Beagle did the numbers on the other place in detail and was right. Give credit where credit is due.

Balance will get similar praise if he is right about an OCA cap raise..

FM got Smartpay correct very early and is also a legend.

I’ll give you praise if you make a big call on something and are right

I’m a fair man. There’s lots of legends around actually

Good on you mate ...Many made calls on FPH reaching $ 10 also ...which made many sell and feel happy ...hope u got the point ...lol ...yes credit is due to u also for forgetting such stuff ....but thats being positive I recon ....like HGH / WHS / what not !!!

Why listen to perma Bull ....who said bottom made in last June ....maybe perma Bull ...not many here ...was called upramper at that time ....

[Muse]

Agree w/ what both Baa Baa and Balance who are coming from different perspectives.

The index pop is going to be fascinating to watch. Some index inclusions have been subdued affairs and some have been spectacular - Meridian Energy inclusion into some offshore index in January 2021 springs to mind - where it had been trading at about $5.50, popped to $9.14 and within a few months was back at $5.00. For a stock with such low liquidity, and a reported 1.4m shares needed to be purchased by index trackers, would expect a nice pop as index trackers purchase. Trick will be keeping ones eye on the cumulative shares traded and watching that SP, as when the trackers are done purchasing, demand will disappear and there will still be sellers who had been holding out for higher prices, and now fearful the SP has peaked will have to meet the market on the way down in order to lock in profits. Goes up fast, can go back down fast - hence, index pop.

That said everything Balance said about the benefits of NX50 inclusion are absolutely valid. Inclusion brings more awareness of the stock, increased pool and diversity of holders and new buyers, & the potential for research - all good stuff and the right ingredients for a re-rate holding all other things constant.

Ultimately though its the financial performance of the company that will dictate price of the stock after index inclusion is bedded down. Remember all the pumping associated with the Warehouse over its NZX50 inclusion in April/May of 2022? Must had been mentioned hundreds of times in the lead up to its inclusion, but despite the inclusion its share price still down 50% since then. It's likely to be booted out at some point as well (again, for the umpteenth time).

In that respect index inclusion could be coming at an opportune time as retail trading conditions deteriorate in OZ. ABS shows rapidly slowing clothing sales: January 17.4%, February 6.2%, March 3.6% (well below inflation). The most timely and widely watched dataset is CBA's internal credit card spending data series (as the largest card issuer in Australia), and they noted clothing retail sales went negative in the last week of March. It's difficult in my view to paint an honest picture that Australian clothing retail isn't facing significant headwinds. There hasn't been an update since as CBA are working on an improved card spend report, which will be released next week.

Attachment 14567

The Forsyth Barr NZX50 Index Tracker has indeed proved to be a very good resource for those of you interested in index inclusions/exclusions (the underlying source to the speculation). In the end, HLG's free float adjusted market cap was ~3% more than Napier Ports, despite having ~35% worse free float adjusted liquidity. None the less, it met the minimum absolute and relative liquidity tests, so by rights got inclusion into the index. And as noted elsewhere, the most recent joiners are often the most recent leavers as well. HLG been in the NZX50 before, booted out before, with no enduring re-rate.

Will be fun to watch - get a bag of pop corn - and see where the liquidity comes from and the price that must be paid to secure it. Just don't be surprised when momentum traders dressed as investors sell into the pop.

Congrats to holders, enjoy it and if you take advantage good on ya.

[RupertBear]

Agree w/ what both Baa Baa and Balance who are coming from different perspectives.

The index pop is going to be fascinating to watch. Some index inclusions have been subdued affairs and some have been spectacular - Meridian Energy inclusion into some offshore index in January 2021 springs to mind - where it had been trading at about $5.50, popped to $9.14 and within a few months was back at $5.00. For a stock with such low liquidity, and a reported 1.4m shares needed to be purchased by index trackers, would expect a nice pop as index trackers purchase. Trick will be keeping ones eye on the cumulative shares traded and watching that SP, as when the trackers are done purchasing, demand will disappear and there will still be sellers who had been holding out for higher prices, and now fearful the SP has peaked will have to meet the market on the way down in order to lock in profits. Goes up fast, can go back down fast - hence, index pop.

That said everything Balance said about the benefits of NX50 inclusion are absolutely valid. Inclusion brings more awareness of the stock, increased pool and diversity of holders and new buyers, & the potential for research - all good stuff and the right ingredients for a re-rate holding all other things constant.

Ultimately though its the financial performance of the company that will dictate price of the stock after index inclusion is bedded down. Remember all the pumping associated with the Warehouse over its NZX50 inclusion in April/May of 2022? Must had been mentioned hundreds of times in the lead up to its inclusion, but despite the inclusion its share price still down 50% since then. It's likely to be booted out at some point as well (again, for the umpteenth time).

In that respect index inclusion could be coming at an opportune time as retail trading conditions deteriorate in OZ. ABS shows rapidly slowing clothing sales: January 17.4%, February 6.2%, March 3.6% (well below inflation). The most timely and widely watched dataset is CBA's internal credit card spending data series (as the largest card issuer in Australia), and they noted clothing retail sales went negative in the last week of March. It's difficult in my view to paint an honest picture that Australian clothing retail isn't facing significant headwinds. There hasn't been an update since as CBA are working on an improved card spend report, which will be released next week.

Attachment 14567

The Forsyth Barr NZX50 Index Tracker has indeed proved to be a very good resource for those of you interested in index inclusions/exclusions (the underlying source to the speculation). In the end, HLG's free float adjusted market cap was ~3% more than Napier Ports, despite having ~35% worse free float adjusted liquidity. None the less, it met the minimum absolute and relative liquidity tests, so by rights got inclusion into the index. And as noted elsewhere, the most recent joiners are often the most recent leavers as well. HLG been in the NZX50 before, booted out before, with no enduring re-rate.

Will be fun to watch - get a bag of pop corn - and see where the liquidity comes from and the price that must be paid to secure it. Just don't be surprised when momentum traders dressed as investors sell into the pop.

Congrats to holders, enjoy it and if you take advantage good on ya.

Another excellent post thanks FM. I would give you a positive rep vote but I need to share the love first

[see weed]

Congratulations to all holders, and thank you Baseagle for all your valuable input. Will have to go and celebrate somewhere.

[nztx]

Oz Today:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-...tes/102296992?

The cost of living has reached a record high, businesses are struggling, and interest rates are rising. Is a recession coming?

[bull....]

Agree w/ what both Baa Baa and Balance who are coming from different perspectives.

The index pop is going to be fascinating to watch. Some index inclusions have been subdued affairs and some have been spectacular - Meridian Energy inclusion into some offshore index in January 2021 springs to mind - where it had been trading at about $5.50, popped to $9.14 and within a few months was back at $5.00. For a stock with such low liquidity, and a reported 1.4m shares needed to be purchased by index trackers, would expect a nice pop as index trackers purchase. Trick will be keeping ones eye on the cumulative shares traded and watching that SP, as when the trackers are done purchasing, demand will disappear and there will still be sellers who had been holding out for higher prices, and now fearful the SP has peaked will have to meet the market on the way down in order to lock in profits. Goes up fast, can go back down fast - hence, index pop.

That said everything Balance said about the benefits of NX50 inclusion are absolutely valid. Inclusion brings more awareness of the stock, increased pool and diversity of holders and new buyers, & the potential for research - all good stuff and the right ingredients for a re-rate holding all other things constant.

Ultimately though its the financial performance of the company that will dictate price of the stock after index inclusion is bedded down. Remember all the pumping associated with the Warehouse over its NZX50 inclusion in April/May of 2022? Must had been mentioned hundreds of times in the lead up to its inclusion, but despite the inclusion its share price still down 50% since then. It's likely to be booted out at some point as well (again, for the umpteenth time).

In that respect index inclusion could be coming at an opportune time as retail trading conditions deteriorate in OZ. ABS shows rapidly slowing clothing sales: January 17.4%, February 6.2%, March 3.6% (well below inflation). The most timely and widely watched dataset is CBA's internal credit card spending data series (as the largest card issuer in Australia), and they noted clothing retail sales went negative in the last week of March. It's difficult in my view to paint an honest picture that Australian clothing retail isn't facing significant headwinds. There hasn't been an update since as CBA are working on an improved card spend report, which will be released next week.

Attachment 14567

The Forsyth Barr NZX50 Index Tracker has indeed proved to be a very good resource for those of you interested in index inclusions/exclusions (the underlying source to the speculation). In the end, HLG's free float adjusted market cap was ~3% more than Napier Ports, despite having ~35% worse free float adjusted liquidity. None the less, it met the minimum absolute and relative liquidity tests, so by rights got inclusion into the index. And as noted elsewhere, the most recent joiners are often the most recent leavers as well. HLG been in the NZX50 before, booted out before, with no enduring re-rate.

Will be fun to watch - get a bag of pop corn - and see where the liquidity comes from and the price that must be paid to secure it. Just don't be surprised when momentum traders dressed as investors sell into the pop.

Congrats to holders, enjoy it and if you take advantage good on ya.

excellent post and yes you dont want to end up like poor meridian buyers who paid at 9 - 10 dollars ( not saying price will behave like that )
your most likely never get money back

anyway index funds who already own hlg ie small cap funds will need to sell now as it has been removed from those index's