HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[winner69]

The point to note is that HLG was trading around $5.40 at very small volumes YTD before the NZX50 speculation started to emerge in April.

$5.40 to $6.85 is a 27% increase which puts the effect of the indexing in perspective.

So $5.40 here we come …….or as downtrends overshoot maybe as low as $5.00

No news coming from company until August to cheer punters up

[Snoopy]

In the year leading up to the announcement of HLG's inclusion it had average daily volume of ~15.3k shares per day. Post that day I estimate an incremental ~2.7m shares were purchased, with 1.5m for the index inclusion and 1.2m speculating on gains from the inclusion. To put it in proportion, the level of excess volume equated to 4.5% of outstanding shares.

There may have been some spec buying in the lead up to the NZX50 announcement after people initially read the Forbar research but trading patterns from the date of that report to when the stock went up suggest if there was any it was very 2 bit in nature. So the demand wasn't satisfied by the incremental purchases after reading Forbar research, but existing holders making incremental spec purchases very well may have sold down into the inclusion (but still likely small beans).

What's more of interest is what happens to the 1.2m of shares that look to have been purchased with speculative intent. By all accounts the index pop looks to be disappointing and the SP has been steadily trending down post inclusion. These sort of buyers don't scream committed long term holder (of whom they displaced) and with the SP now in steady decline suggest a potential large uncommitted overhang wanting to get out if gains can't be secured.

FM, I am first to admit that I don't possess the psychology to do short term trading. But you estimate an extra 2.7m shares were traded above normal volume, whereas only 1.5m needed to be traded for index inclusion purposes. Isn't it likely that some of those 'excess' 1.2m shares traded were traded twice, maybe even on the same day? There were some quite hefty daily price movements. So isn't it likely that some HLG shares were bought by the speculators early, then sold to the fund managers later that day, or a day later? Those quite substantial daily price movements may have captured the attention of day traders. And with HLG being outside the top 50 before entry, coupled with poor liquidity, that would suggest there were not that many algorithmic programs out there trading without a human finger on the buy button. IOW, the old fashioned situation of 'people selling to people' would not be an unrealistic view of what happened in this instance? That could mean those uncommitted holders of 1.2m shares have already left the share register.

SNOOPY

[alokdhir]

Legend is not only the one who can predict a future price rise but also the one who can advise on how fleeting it can be !!

If price of $ 6.85 was so short lived then getting off the boat wud have been a great option ...Bull actually did it right but many Gurus were justifying SP of $ 7.50+ thus confusing many into not offloading at great time ...reminds me of MEL / CEN opportunity in early Jan 2021 ....

[Rawz]

Legend is not only the one who can predict a future price rise but also the one who can advise on how fleeting it can be !!

If price of $ 6.85 was so short lived then getting off the boat wud have been a great option ...Bull actually did it right but many Gurus were justifying SP of $ 7.50+ thus confusing many into not offloading at great time ...reminds me of MEL / CEN opportunity in early Jan 2021 ....

No one can predict future price mate. Perhaps future value but what the price does is another story

[dreamcatcher]

This morning 9 people selling 3813 moved the SP 24c add another 4764 then would have moved SP to $5.50 .............easy-come-easy-go eh

[alokdhir]

Maybe moving towards real intrinsic worth or value after inclusion pop opportunity gone ...

W69 looking for $ 5 ...when yield support kicks in again ...

[Snoopy]

Legend is not only the one who can predict a future price rise but also the one who can advise on how fleeting it can be !!

If price of $ 6.85 was so short lived then getting off the boat wud have been a great option ...Bull actually did it right

This is what I meant when I said I don't have the trading psychology. I can use trading rules to justify my entry. But when those same parameters that I reacted to on the buy side tell me to sell, I don't listen.

but many Gurus were justifying SP of $ 7.50+ thus confusing many into not offloading at great time ...reminds me of MEL / CEN opportunity in early Jan 2021 ....

There is one big difference though. In that heady Jan 2021 time, almost every share in my portfolio, and indeed on the NZX, looked overvalued. So selling one overvalued share to buy another wouldn't have necessarily made me better off. Very different now, where there are at least 'pockets of value' out there.

SNOOPY

[BlackPeter]

Legend is not only the one who can predict a future price rise but also the one who can advise on how fleeting it can be !!

If price of $ 6.85 was so short lived then getting off the boat wud have been a great option ...Bull actually did it right but many Gurus were justifying SP of $ 7.50+ thus confusing many into not offloading at great time ...reminds me of MEL / CEN opportunity in early Jan 2021 ....

I don't think you should assume that ANYBODY is able to predict the future prices of stocks, and lets face it - legends around here are just posters with a certain number of posts, no matter whether they have been useful and / or sensible, or not.

Nobody can predict future stock prices or anything else in a grade 2 chaotic system where the knowledge of the system changes the behaviour of the participants ...

So - I guess, it is good that this (and other) forums gave early warning of the index change .... and all kudos to the posters who did this.

Based on this knowledge could anybody who wished to, determine how much the share is worth to them, i.e. when they want to buy and when they want to sell.

Trying to predict the height of any future SP peak is as sensible as trying to predict the next throw of the dice if you play Monopoly with your friends. For any individual dice you will have a 16.7% chance to get it right, and a 83.3% chance to get it wrong.

So - don't complain about the so called gurus who might have got it right or wrong ... ask yourself what you can do to better understand the non predictability of chaotic systems. Trusting other posters is anyway a risky enterprise, but believing in and relying on any future stock values they might throw around would be beyond believe ...

Ah yes ... and to value HLG currently around $7.50 ... I guess it would take pretty brave assumptions about future earnings and growth potential to justify that, but sure - anybody's guess is as good as yours, and nobody can predict what hype might do to a share price. The golden rule for working assumptions is however - never trust an assumption you didn't work out yourself and / or fully understand and agree with :

[alokdhir]

I don't think you should assume that ANYBODY is able to predict the future prices of stocks, and lets face it - legends around here are just posters with a certain number of posts, no matter whether they have been useful and / or sensible, or not.

Nobody can predict future stock prices or anything else in a grade 2 chaotic system where the knowledge of the system changes the behaviour of the participants ...

So - I guess, it is good that this (and other) forums gave early warning of the index change .... and all kudos to the posters who did this.

Based on this knowledge could anybody who wished to determine how much the share is worth to them, i.e. when they want to buy and when they want to sell.

Trying to predict the height of any future peak is as sensible as trying to predict the next throw of the dice if you play Monopoly with your friends. For any individual dice you will have a 16.7% chance to get it right, and a 83.3% chance to get it wrong.

So - don't complain about the so called gurus who might have got it right or wrong ... ask yourself what you can do to better understand the non predictability of chaotic systems. Trusting other posters is anyway a risky enterprise, but believing in and relying on any future stock values they might throw around would be beyond believe ...

Ah yes ... and to value HLG currently around $7.50 ... I guess it would take pretty brave assumptions about future earnings and growth potential to justify that, but sure - anybody's guess is as good as yours - the thing with working assumptions is however - never trust an assumption you didn't work out yourself :

No need for me to say anything ...U have said it all mate ...

PS : What gave u the idea I was complaining ....I was just observing for all including myself how it works here and maybe everywhere ...and also defining my " Legends "

[winner69]

I don't think you should assume that ANYBODY is able to predict the future prices of stocks, and lets face it - legends around here are just posters with a certain number of posts, no matter whether they have been useful and / or sensible, or not.

Nobody can predict future stock prices or anything else in a grade 2 chaotic system where the knowledge of the system changes the behaviour of the participants ...

So - I guess, it is good that this (and other) forums gave early warning of the index change .... and all kudos to the posters who did this.

Based on this knowledge could anybody who wished to, determine how much the share is worth to them, i.e. when they want to buy and when they want to sell.

Trying to predict the height of any future SP peak is as sensible as trying to predict the next throw of the dice if you play Monopoly with your friends. For any individual dice you will have a 16.7% chance to get it right, and a 83.3% chance to get it wrong.

So - don't complain about the so called gurus who might have got it right or wrong ... ask yourself what you can do to better understand the non predictability of chaotic systems. Trusting other posters is anyway a risky enterprise, but believing in and relying on any future stock values they might throw around would be beyond believe ...

Ah yes ... and to value HLG currently around $7.50 ... I guess it would take pretty brave assumptions about future earnings and growth potential to justify that, but sure - anybody's guess is as good as yours, and nobody can predict what hype might do to a share price. The golden rule for working assumptions is however - never trust an assumption you didn't work out yourself and / or fully understand and agree with :

Are you saying you ‘think’ (not predict) the HLG share price will fall to something like $4.50?