HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[percy]

LOL I wouldn't rule that out especially if Mrs hound puts some special sauce into the Christmas pudding

My thinking exactly.!!!lol.

[winner69]

Glad Percy's came up with a 35 cents eps figure for F17.

About what I forecasted a while ago - and got accused of ramping and all that stuff. Even Roger pooh-poohed the thought.

A 7% sales increase with 2% points higher margin (even Arbroath is implying that) with. Few million more in expenses will give $23m npat - about 35 cents a share.

Methinks that 35 cents eps is pretty safe

Heck that deserves a share price well over $4 - even at $5 is only a PE of 14

(PS - I wouldn't go as high as 40 cents for F17 - thats just ridiculous......maybe F18)

[Beagle]

Okay I won't disappoint you NBT. Here's the thing, for the vast majority of FY16 the exchange rate was 65 cents..even if we assume an average of 70 cents this year, (closed at 72 as you quite rightly said W69) that's a fairly conservative 8% reduction in the cost of purchases so I see their profits exceeding FY15 on the exchange rate alone. Then add in Di Humperies reinvigorating the fashion pizazz into the product line at Glassons and with half normal weather we're off to the races with $20m+ profit in FY17.

Here's what they said this year - Sales up circa $2m to $ 223.5m They mentioned gross profit dropped ~3% to 56.5% so:-
Purchases must have been $97.21m Kiwi, (assume for a minute stock level was consistent and average exchange rate of 65 cents U.S.) Purchases in U.S$63.18m
Gross profit $126.3m = 56.5% - gives $13,5m net profit

Now if we assume an average of U.S. 70 cents this year (which currently looks conservative) those purchases would have cost them $U.S.63.18m / 0.7 = $90.25m Kiwi a reduction of just on $7m so GROSS PROFIT WOULD BE SEVEN MILLION DOLLARS MORE AT US 70 CENTS AND WE ARE CURRENTLY AT 72 CENTS !!

That's $13.5m net profit plus the extra $7m gross profit which flows straight to the bottom line so that's $20.5m for FY17 just based on the currency increase !, assuming all other costs remain the same, but the word seems to be they've been trying to pull costs out of their structure to cope with the lower currency so one would hope we get the full year's benefit of those efficiency gains this year in addition to the above favourable impact from the currency. Then factor in Di Humphries well known positive influence and if the weather starts to be half normal...well we could easily see $4 again this time next year and profit somewhere well north of $20m.

This is too easy mate, for anyone that knows where the dollar has been and its effects on importers and then the subsequent effect when it goes back up (AFTER the company has been vigorously pulling other costs out of its cost structure to cope with the lower dollar)...for anyone with some vision of what's going to happen its clear profitability is highly likely to AT LEAST be restored to FY15 level's if not considerably beyond. This could easily do a Kathmandu style recovery and grow profits by 67% next year to $22.5m !!

On top of that the 15% gross dividend yield which the company has confirmed makes this arguably the most compelling dividend yielding stock on the NZX with a very long and stable track record of paying exceptionally stable and exceptionally high level's of dividends.

Dunno about that Winner. The hound sniffed this profit increase out way back on 10 August 2016 when he was buying at ~ $2.70. A well bred pedigree divvy hound can smell a solid feed coming from a mile off $22.5m = 37.75 cps. Disc - no special sauce was consumed before or during this or the 10 August post Thing I like about HLG's accounts is they're so simple to understand, even my old fashioned steam powered abacas seems perfectly capable of crunching the numbers.

[see weed]

Are you related to Couta1.
Have 95,000 reasons for asking.???..lol.

lol...no just a week or more trader.

[winner69]

Dunno about that Winner. The hound sniffed this profit increase out way back on 10 August 2016 when he was buying at ~ $2.70. A well bred pedigree divvy hound can smell a solid feed coming from a mile off $22.5m = 37.75 cps. Disc - no special sauce was consumed before or during this or the 10 August post Thing I like about HLG's accounts is they're so simple to understand, even my old fashioned steam powered abacas seems perfectly capable of crunching the numbers.

Jeez - was it way back in August we had these thoughts. Weren't we very perceptive,

Was sure that $2.70 was about as low as it was going to get - been good ride since (even though market overall not been that good) ......, and plenty more to come I reckon.

[winner69]

Yes, Mark Goddard's Australian retail experience should be helpful if they push further into that market and ensure he's not lost in space there.


............!

Mark will do well, but will need to keep that Di on a tight leash

[Beagle]

Jeez - was it way back in August we had these thoughts. Weren't we very perceptive,

Was sure that $2.70 was about as low as it was going to get - been good ride since (even though market overall not been that good) ......, and plenty more to come I reckon.

Yeap I think we had / have this one sussed-out quite nicely. I think you, Seeweed, I and a few others others picked the bottom on this one with impeccable timing. As you say, in the context of a weak market overall since then and a 16.5 cps divvy the gains since $2.70 in a few months have been pretty good and I agree that there's plenty of gas in the tank to run.

Di's been doing very well at Glassons I reckon. Give her a decent brand and she's grabbed the ball and running flat out with it, (nobody could have saved that pup, PPL).

[see weed]

Forget about ATMs, RYMs, SCLs, SKTs, TGHs, and TILs etc. for now. Come over here for a while over Christmas. We are having a ball.....just a quiet ball. Put your funds into HLG for a couple of months, knowing that a good div and results coming early next year. No worries, rest easy over the holidays knowing good divs on there way and prob a little sp rise Merry Christmas

[Raz]

Forget about ATMs, RYMs, SCLs, SKTs, TGHs, and TILs etc. for now. Come over here for a while over Christmas. We are having a ball.....just a quiet ball. Put your funds into HLG for a couple of months, knowing that a good div and results coming early next year. No worries, rest easy over the holidays knowing good divs on there way and prob a little sp rise Merry Christmas

Share price has had a nice run up, still held a small parcel before I noticed the comments (shout out to Rodger in particular) on this one and then had a closer look for myself..bought in at the right time a more substantial parcel..using my classic car money...thats not family money.. so watching this one closely as my hobby depends on it ha !!

[see weed]

Would one days turnover of $20,000 plus be good turnover out of a small Glasson store?