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Thread: OSH-Oil search

  1. #1
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Default OSH-Oil search

    -OSH-One to watch over the next 6 months Bargin Blue chip of the Large Oilers IMHO-SP- 3.62
    -huge middle east exploration ongoing any major success should test 4.50 high
    -forward P/E-16
    -4c divie ex 5 March 07-Yield- 2.5%
    -Makes ORG look expensive





    RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2006
    20 February 2007


    OIL SEARCH ANNOUNCES A RECORD NET PROFIT AFTER
    TAX OF US$412.0 MILLION


    HIGHLIGHTS
    • Oil Search’s Net Profit after Tax (NAPT) for the year December 2006 was
    US$412.0 million, including a net profit of US$258.4 million relating to the
    sale of licence interests to AGL.
    • The core Net Profit After Tax, excluding significant items, was US$207.5
    million, up 4% on the 2005 result, a record for the Company in its 77 year
    history.
    •Based on the core Net Profit After Tax, earnings per share rose 3% to US
    18.5 cents per share, whilst cashflow per share was 11% higher at US 35.6
    cents per share.
    • The result was achieved despite lower production, following the sale of
    producing assets to AGL. 2006 oil and gas production was 10.2 million
    barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) compared to 12.2 mmboe in 2005, with
    approximately 2.5 mmboe sold to AGL. Gross daily production from the PNG
    oil assets rose by 5% in 2006 versus 2005, the third successive year
    production has increased from these mature fields, demonstrating further
    production potential and close field management.
    • The Company generated total operating revenue of US$664.5 million, based
    on oil sales of 9.2 million barrels (10.8 million barrels in 2005). The impact
    of lower production was largely offset by a higher average oil price of
    US$67.22 per barrel (up 16% on 2005).
    • At the end of December 2006, the Company had cash reserves of US$477.9
    million, compared to US$212.2 million at the beginning of the year. The
    substantial improvement in the Company’s balance sheet reflected strong
    cash flows from operations, combined with a US$379 million payment from
    AGL for assets sold in early 2006. Following receipt of the AGL sale proceeds,
    Oil Search paid down outstanding debt and has since remained debt free.
    • The Board has approved the payment of a US four cents final dividend for the
    2006 financial year. Together with the interim dividend of US four cents per
    share, paid to shareholders in October 2006, the total dividend for the year is
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  2. #2
    Gold Member SEC's Avatar
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    quote:Originally posted by JBmurc

    -OSH-One to watch over the next 6 months Bargin Blue chip of the Large Oilers IMHO-SP- 3.62
    -huge middle east exploration ongoing any major success should test 4.50 high
    -Low P/E- 6
    Would be interested in OSH around the $3.40 mark. Good projects in the pipeline, and they've got rid of the PNG pipeline monkey off their back. But disagree on it being a bargain, and you know full well the historical 'PE of 6' is misleading and includes abnormals[}]. Forecast PEs are 16 for 07 and 17 for 08, not exactly cheap!

    I've also got my eye on BPT, single digit PEs forecast for the next 3 years, being trashed for no obvious reason apart from nervousness about pending drill results, any thoughts there JBMurc and others?

    SEC

  3. #3
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Too right SEC the sale of licence interests to AGL made up over half of OSH EPS -Have edited P/E to suit-
    -Bpt,sto,wpl,coe,arq,tap most ASX oilers IMHO look unloved by the market currently.
    -Don't know alot about BPT does sound great buying if its forward P/e is low,Whats it future drilling program ,I know it reserves are mostly made up of GAS


    -As for OSH's future- Oil for one is back over $60 just when alot of analyst were talking down OIL's future (OSH has 3 more yrs of current production levels 10mmboe av)
    -OSH Currently has 6 wells drilling in the middle east ,with some good oil shows so far-(Don't know of any other larger ASX oiler currently drilling as much prime targets as OSH)
    -Upside of OSH's increasing oil&Gas reserves will rerate well over $4 even if the P/E is currently high


    ----Off Fat prophets------when OSH was over $4
    Oil Search's operations remain in good health. During the first quarter of 2006, the company's Papua New Guinea oil production was 1.5 percent higher than the previous quarter with average gross production of over 52,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd). Rates have subsequently increased to over 60,000 bopd.

    Oil Search has proven and probable oil reserves of 111.3 million barrels and an active exploration programme underway across three countries. However, the company's gas assets add a significant additional layer of earnings potential. Gas resources currently stand at an impressive 1,056 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe).

    The commencement of the PNG Gas Project would confirm the commercial viability of the company's gas resource. As a result, up to 370 mmboe of this total could potentially be moved into the 'reserves' category. With key aspects of Front End Engineering and Design completed, the project is moving closer to becoming a reality
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  4. #4
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    from aegis

    OSH enters FY07 in a strong position and with a clear strategic focus now that the PNG pipeline has been suspended. We have revised our FY07 EPS forecast down by 21% following confirmation that the production guidance for the year was lower than we had been modelling. Countering this negative impact is the exploration upside. We have increased our expectations for the 18-month drilling program recently initiated following the early success in Egypt. Also, a decision on the commercialisation of the large gas reserves is expected by mid-2007. The exploration potential and our increasingly positive view on the LNG opportunities have resulted in the target price being increased by 4% to $4.20. Given OSH has a growing revenue profile, no debt and a large cash position, it will be able to rapidly advance both exploration discoveries and the gas commercialisation opportunities.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  5. #5
    Guru Crypto Crude's Avatar
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    http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=519287

    WOW... THIS PNG LNG IS GOING TO BE VERY BIG...
    guess who is going to ride in on the coat tales of Mighty Oil Search...?

    .^sc
    Nakamoto means of Central origin ...

  6. #6
    Guru Crypto Crude's Avatar
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    cue is set to net previously gas stranded assets of 2P 150 BCF in Kimu and Bariweka worth a billion dollars plus... through the OSH LNG development...
    Ive got alot of study to do on OSH...
    check out page 26 of he presentation...
    keep this to yourself...
    When the market wakes up to this PNG LNG, then watch out...
    MOS, HZN, CUE, STO, OSH all have big leverage in this...
    its all pretty long term stuff, so make sure you got short term things kicking with it...

    .^sc
    Nakamoto means of Central origin ...

  7. #7
    Member ELYOB's Avatar
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    yes , worth being on CUE and HZN here . MOS is third in my book . Well spotted SC .

  8. #8
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    you are right pointman...
    They are calling this PNG LNG, a Legacy project...

    .^sc
    Nakamoto means of Central origin ...

  9. #9
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    Hi, what are the chances of a riot or political risk causing damage in PNG?

    Got a little nervous when riots started in Thailand after I bought into CVN.
    Disclaimer: Do not take my posts seriously. They are only opinions.

    AMR has sold all shares and is pursuing property.

  10. #10
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    AMR,
    Sure its not the best country in the World to do business... This will work because its such a large resource... And it will work because OSH is PNG's largest tax payer...
    I also read that the PNG LNG will double GDP (for the whole country)....
    The people, the government, and OSH are all better off....
    OSH revenues are set to triple...
    Legacy project...
    Id say right now, that OSH is the best aussie large tiered oiler and its going to triple in size (with big up, over the next few years)....

    .^sc
    Nakamoto means of Central origin ...

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