PRC Pike River Coal

[Balance]

You have to laugh. PRC should have advised of the further delay first thing this year. So who knew and who didn't?

Looks like more grabens ahead.

[mouse]

You have to laugh. PRC should have advised of the further delay first thing this year. So who knew and who didn't?

Looks like more grabens ahead.

My guesstimate, 16 December posting, was steady state mining by August 2010. It looks now as if that may be more like October 2010.
A/. 20,000 tons to be shipped February.
B/. 40,00 tons expected April to June 2010.
C/. So that is 18 months production!
D/. Graben was 100 metres wide, now it is 150 metres. So they are still drilling and blasting.
E/. Commissioning hydro mining equipment July to September.
F/. Maybe even my revised guess of October 2010 is too optimistic.

All of the above is bad news. Could someone please tell me what the good news is? We need a bit.
Mind you, I was sorely tempted to buy 10,000 Pike when the price started to move. Am I eligable for psychiatric help?

[Balance]

My guesstimate, 16 December posting, was steady state mining by August 2010. It looks now as if that may be more like October 2010.
A/. 20,000 tons to be shipped February.
B/. 40,00 tons expected April to June 2010.
C/. So that is 18 months production!
D/. Graben was 100 metres wide, now it is 150 metres. So they are still drilling and blasting.
E/. Commissioning hydro mining equipment July to September.
F/. Maybe even my revised guess of October 2010 is too optimistic.

All of the above is bad news. Could someone please tell me what the good news is? We need a bit.
Mind you, I was sorely tempted to buy 10,000 Pike when the price started to move. Am I eligable for psychiatric help?

Mouse, you are bang on.

How the hell can they under-estimate the graben by 50 meters? What does this say about their geological expertise!!!!!!!

40,000 tonnes over 3 months = 160,000 tonnes a year! No way this mine makes any profit in the next 2 years at least.

No wonder the Indians said no more money from us. And other investors thought they are smarter than the Indians.

You are okay, Mouse - PRC is a trading stock. Just need to be on your toes and move fast.

[Bixbite]

Any capital raising isn't going to be massive, they have previously said they will need another $20m, so we are talking about a max of what $30m new shares, overall that is less than 10% of the total shares on issue.

Of course I would prefer that they simply took on some more debt, preferably in a loan rather than more convertable bonds.

But my gut instinct tells me they will get more money from Liberty Harbor....

I prefer the new money from Liberty Harbor.

[Dr_Who]

Looks like they will have to do a rights issue now.

[winner69]

Witht he heads at 101 the OAs at 25 look overpriced

Using current heads volatility the OAs in theory should be about 19-20 cents

OAs priced in anticipation of exciting news? ... but exercise date is now just over a year away

[Balance]

PRC has no idea what lies ahead in the mine. Why do we know that?

Production delay is now in excess of 2 years due to :

1. Soft rocks,

2. Ventilation collapse.

3. Graben.

All 3 should have been scoped out, planned for and engineered into the mine. They obviously were not.

So how many more grabens lie ahead?

Will there be too much moisture and flooding.

Are there streams running through the coal seam.

Is there inconsistent coal quality.

How many pockets of coal gas.

And so on and so forth.

[ratkin]

PRC has no idea what lies ahead in the mine. Why do we know that?

Production delay is now in excess of 2 years due to :

1. Soft rocks,

2. Ventilation collapse.

3. Graben.

All 3 should have been scoped out, planned for and engineered into the mine. They obviously were not.

So how many more grabens lie ahead?

Will there be too much moisture and flooding.

Are there streams running through the coal seam.

Is there inconsistent coal quality.

How many pockets of coal gas.

And so on and so forth.

Dont forget the earthquake

[Corporate]

I was fairly bullish on PRC (bar the financing issue), however, after reading the quarterly I won't touch it until steady state production is more likely. To much risk at the moment.

[mouse]

The problem I face now is, what is the correct price for Pike shares? They told us they needed to raise $20 million, which now seems to be either $30 or $40 millilon. Having written that, they could reach steady production by the end of this year or next year. Is the share price now realistically 90 cents to $1.00, or is it 80 to 90 cents. Also what about the rights price. Has anyone ideas or comments?