nz farming systems Uruguay

[etrader]

Well with the float looming what are the calls on the IPO list price.

Given that more info keeps coming out for global dairy demand it seems that
nzfsu have timed the float to perfection.

$1.55 my call on opening day

[Snoopy]

Well with the float looming what are the calls on the IPO list price.

Given that more info keeps coming out for global dairy demand it seems that
nzfsu have timed the float to perfection.

$1.55 my call on opening day

I'm bearish short term, but bullish medium term. I think in a years time we could easily hit $1.80, which is a 10% discount to what NZFSU tell us is the the *current* discounted cashflow valuation of the business. By current I mean the 32,000ha of farms in the just circulated listing profile *without* the latest capital raising. Any new capital isn't going to get new land into production for a few years so that's why I don't think an announcement that the business will be 'scaled up' yet again will bring more initial interest.

In the short term I reckon some farmer shareholders will be cashing in their chips as part of the farming season in NZ gets off to a bad start - in some regions, for some farmers. My call at the close of trading on day 1 is $1.45. I also predict that if that happens Macdunk will pop up and claim that because the closing figure is below the $1.50 listing price expected, (also the figure that the Johnny come lately institutions paid), that I have lost money (!)

SNOOPY

discl: hold NZFSU

[etrader]

Snoopy you might be right on opening day, regardless most of the investors have only paid $1 for their shares and i guess the new investors who paid $1.50 might be at break even short term but they're buying in for a longer term investment, as their prospectus showed they'll make a loss in first year and dependant on their growth they might turn a profit second year they list with a div expected in 09.

Maybe MacDunk might think that but give it time one will be wishing they had got in early as we did.

Some farmers might be selling down on list but good times are still coming for farmers at the consumers expence. Fonterra are trying to keep their farmers from going to independants to sell their milk so paying higher prices, then just charge the consumers more to cover that top up.

Hopefully they also expand over the boarder one day to Brasil as land there is varst and well priced also.

[AMR]

I'm looking at this as well but the time to buy is after this subprime shakeout. The fundamentals look great but I don't like buying in IPOs.

Would any of you know where I can get a spot price chart for the price of milk?

[etrader]

does anyone know the trading code for the stock tomorrow ?

[COLIN]

does anyone know the trading code for the stock tomorrow ?

NZS - according to the Listing Notice.

[ratkin]

Looks like a couple of big sell orders in place , hopefully the price will drop some in the next few days

[Snoopy]

Looks like a couple of big sell orders in place , hopefully the price will drop some in the next few days

Yes, trading down to $1.45. So far the trades look like bigger players passing the parcel between themselves. Not much evidence of small shareholder involvement yet.

Now all I neeed is Macdunk to pop up and say that I should have sold out at $1.50 on the opening bell and that I have now 'lost money' for my prediction to be complete.

SNOOPY

discl: hold what was NZFSU, now NZS, and intend being on the share register for some time.

[duncan macgregor]

Yes, trading down to $1.45. So far the trades look like bigger players passing the parcel between themselves. Not much evidence of small shareholder involvement yet.

Now all I neeed is Macdunk to pop up and say that I should have sold out at $1.50 on the opening bell and that I have now 'lost money' for my prediction to be complete.

SNOOPY

discl: hold what was NZFSU, now NZS, and intend being on the share register for some time.

SNOOPY, I blame you mate, everything you touch turns to custard. To be serious about it for a moment first trading day could not have been timed at a worse time. Any new share without a TA record of market sentiment is a straight out gamble. PRC did exactly that, listed downtrended straight away showed a buy signal at 86c then trended right up. The buy signal for this share will be when it breaks the 30 day moving average on the way up later on once it becomes established. It opened at $1-50 now its $1-40 which shows the gamblers how silly they are for investing blind. KEEP me honest SNOOPY let me know how my buy signal works on this one later on compared to your buying gamble. Please dont come out with your usual waffle about cant time the market when i do it all the time. Macdunk

[Arbitrage]

[QUOTE=Snoopy;177440]Yes, trading down to $1.45. So far the trades look like bigger players passing the parcel between themselves. Not much evidence of small shareholder involvement yet.

Duncan, have you got another parcel to pass?