BEACH PETROLEUM - BPT

[macduffy]

Remember those quoted figures are P10 Reserves & 75% BPT (COE 25%)

I'd imagine the flowrates would be low & in the 100's of barrels per day.

BPT - Media Release - All debt repaid + Cash in bank

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=172741

The geothermal drilling has started (with PTR) - love the pictures!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=172743

C'mon Macduffy, admit it you're tempted to get the cheque book out

No, not even thinking about it.

But I'm rather intrigued by the BPT story so I keep a small interest just in case.

Spent the last few hours kicking myself for my timidity in taking only a token interest in NGX yesterday. I've been trying to find a worthwhile goldie for some time but wasn't really convinced that was it. Still may not be but the SP looks good. And practically no sellers!

Back to BPT, I'm happy for them to keep plugging away at the Cooper Eromanga to replenish their reserves there rather than spend big money in foreign climes searching for that elephant. The problem is that any returns are going to be spread pretty thinly over that elephant sized capital base.

[tricha]

I'm just drawing attention to a couple of interesting facts, Tricha :-

(1) Oil is in an uptrend.
(2) BPT......... isn't.
Wouldn't you expect BPT to rise (rather than fall!) while the price of oil has doubled in the last 6 months?

I am not the first to notice this unfortunate divergence, of course, and hitherto staunch holders are plaintively asking "Why is BPT so weak compared to other oilers?". Good question!

Way back in June last year, more perceptive holders had noticed "Oil prices going up, share price going down"..... and were getting out at double the current shareprice!

Tricha, the market currently values BPT at 78 cents. Oil has risen 93% since you calculated BPT's "worth" as $4.33 per share.

What is your latest valuation?

WELL Phaedrus, looks like my last calculation was way off. Going by the data available of 58 million P2 reserves @ $40 a barrel OZ = 2320 billion / 1030 billion shares + 12 cents a share cash = $2.37 cents a share.

So Beach is still cheap and has cash in the bank and a management reshuffle ( could be good or bad ), so it's better to be on the train instead of sitting at the station watching the ship go past. If u know what I mean.

It probably means we are gambling on the management to do the right thing.

[shasta]

WELL Phaedrus, looks like my last calculation was way off. Going by the data available of 58 million P2 reserves @ $40 a barrel OZ = 2320 billion / 1030 billion shares + 12 cents a share cash = $2.37 cents a share.

So Beach is still cheap and has cash in the bank and a management reshuffle ( could be good or bad ), so it's better to be on the train instead of sitting at the station watching the ship go past. If u know what I mean.

It probably means we are gambling on the management to do the right thing.

Ok, BPT's Mgmt has rightly been bagged for it's past efforts (of lack thereof), lets look & see what they have done right!

1. Pay off debt = well done ($A650m in 3 years )
2. Hedges in the money, this is very simple yet so many stuff it up!
3. Sold off Tipton West, ok this is also a negative but, BPT weren't in the running for a LNG site at Gladstone & would only get the Australian domestic gas price, so selling it was overall a good thing IMO.
4. Busy drilling, yup BPT don't sit still which makes things interesting
5. Alternative Energy with Geothermal in the portfolio, so we are diversified outside of just oil & conventional gas.
6. Not wasting money on DLS, yes more shares , but could end up being a cheap purchase.
7. Future proofing, well BPT can now fund existing portfolio exploration, & development from existing cashflows, & could acquire someone???

I think BPT's mgmt are slowly turning things around, just like NZO & VPE did.

[shasta]

Ok, BPT's Mgmt has rightly been bagged for it's past efforts (of lack thereof), lets look & see what they have done right!

1. Pay off debt = well done ($A650m in 3 years )
2. Hedges in the money, this is very simple yet so many stuff it up!
3. Sold off Tipton West, ok this is also a negative but, BPT weren't in the running for a LNG site at Gladstone & would only get the Australian domestic gas price, so selling it was overall a good thing IMO.
4. Busy drilling, yup BPT don't sit still which makes things interesting
5. Alternative Energy with Geothermal in the portfolio, so we are diversified outside of just oil & conventional gas.
6. Not wasting money on DLS, yes more shares , but could end up being a cheap purchase.
7. Future proofing, well BPT can now fund existing portfolio exploration, & development from existing cashflows, & could acquire someone???

I think BPT's mgmt are slowly turning things around, just like NZO & VPE did.

BPT - Weekly Drilling Report

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=172780

Highlights:

2 gas discoveries in PEL 106 (Cooper/Eromanga Basin)

- Brownlow-1 tested > 12mmscf per day
- Canunda-1 tested ~9mmscf per day

Sounds more than useful to me

Also we are at 189m for Paralana-2 the Geothermal/hot rocks permit

Only ~3,811m to go...

[shasta]

BPT - Weekly Drilling Report

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=172780

Highlights:

2 gas discoveries in PEL 106 (Cooper/Eromanga Basin)

- Brownlow-1 tested > 12mmscf per day
- Canunda-1 tested ~9mmscf per day

Sounds more than useful to me

Also we are at 189m for Paralana-2 the Geothermal/hot rocks permit

Only ~3,811m to go...

BPT - Butlers-1 flows at 2,600 bopd (BPT 75%, COE 25%)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=172873

Only around ~1mmbo field, however the revenue is useful:

BPT 75% of 2,600 = 1,950bopd...

BPT get the Tapis price = ~$US70/bbl

AUD/USD = ~0.80, so BPT get roughly $A87.50/bbl

$A87.50 x 1,950 bopd x 384 days* = ~$A65m revenue for life of field

Est profit margin @ $A30/bbl = ~$A22m

* 1mmbo/2600bopd = ~384 days

If BPT find a few of these you can see the impact on cashflows, revenues & profits!

[tricha]

WELL Phaedrus, looks like my last calculation was way off. Going by the data available of 58 million P2 reserves @ $40 a barrel OZ = 2320 billion / 1030 billion shares + 12 cents a share cash = $2.37 cents a share.

So Beach is still cheap and has cash in the bank and a management reshuffle ( could be good or bad ), so it's better to be on the train instead of sitting at the station watching the ship go past. If u know what I mean.

It probably means we are gambling on the management to do the right thing.

Looks like I'm way off, Still.

Eurozone only value them at $1.40, but the trick is, no major player, yet.
T\A does not take that into account

Top 20 Shareholders as at 4 May 2009
Shareholders Shares (m) (%)

1 National Nominees Limited 119.99 11.58
2 J P Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 117.44 11.33
3 HSBC Custody Nominees (Aust) Limited 94.39 9.20
4 ANZ Nominees Limited 95.06 9.17
5 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 79.02 7.63
6 RBC Global Services Aust Nom Pty Ltd 27.44 2.65
7 Cogent Nominees Pty Limited 10.39 1.00
8 AMP Life Limited 9.33 0.90
9 Sunrise investments Corporation 8.38 0.81
10 Bond Street Custodians Limited 6.29 0.61
11 Queensland Investment Corporation 4.35 0.42
12 Mathews Capital Partners Pty Ltd 3.46 0.33
13 Merrilly Lynch (Aust) Nominees Pty Ltd 3.21 0.31
14 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 0.15 0.30
15 UBS Nominees Pty Ltd 3.11 0.30
16 BNP Paribas <BNP Cooper Neff A/C> 2.87 0.28
17 Equity Trustees Ltd 2.59 0.25
18 New Economy Com Nominees Pty Ltd 2.33 0.22
19 Mr Reginald George Nelson 2.30 0.22
20 CS Fourth Nominess Pty Ltd 2.17 0.21

TOTAL 594.25 57.72

[shasta]

Looks like I'm way off, Still.

Eurozone only value them at $1.40, but the trick is, no major player, yet.
T\A does not take that into account

Top 20 Shareholders as at 4 May 2009
Shareholders Shares (m) (%)
1 National Nominees Limited 119.99 11.58
2 J P Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 117.44 11.33
3 HSBC Custody Nominees (Aust) Limited 94.39 9.20
4 ANZ Nominees Limited 95.06 9.17
5 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 79.02 7.63
6 RBC Global Services Aust Nom Pty Ltd 27.44 2.65
7 Cogent Nominees Pty Limited 10.39 1.00
8 AMP Life Limited 9.33 0.90
9 Sunrise investments Corporation 8.38 0.81
10 Bond Street Custodians Limited 6.29 0.61
11 Queensland Investment Corporation 4.35 0.42
12 Mathews Capital Partners Pty Ltd 3.46 0.33
13 Merrilly Lynch (Aust) Nominees Pty Ltd 3.21 0.31
14 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 0.15 0.30
15 UBS Nominees Pty Ltd 3.11 0.30
16 BNP Paribas <BNP Cooper Neff A/C> 2.87 0.28
17 Equity Trustees Ltd 2.59 0.25
18 New Economy Com Nominees Pty Ltd 2.33 0.22
19 Mr Reginald George Nelson 2.30 0.22
20 CS Fourth Nominess Pty Ltd 2.17 0.21
TOTAL 594.25 57.72

I fully expected BPT to drop today below the trading range of 75c...

Low & behold it holds tight

I mean BPT hits new discoveries = SP goes down

BPT is debt free & has large cashflows = SP goes down

Tapis price surges upwards = SP goes down

Whatever happens = SP goes down

Phaedrus is probably shorting the sh*t outta BPT & having a laugh :o

I still like the Beach though

[shasta]

I fully expected BPT to drop today below the trading range of 75c...

Low & behold it holds tight

I mean BPT hits new discoveries = SP goes down

BPT is debt free & has large cashflows = SP goes down

Tapis price surges upwards = SP goes down

Whatever happens = SP goes down

Phaedrus is probably shorting the sh*t outta BPT & having a laugh :o

I still like the Beach though

Chart looks oversold too

[ELYOB]

one has to wait ; Funds are not interested in any stocks

[macduffy]

Looks like I'm way off, Still.

Eurozone only value them at $1.40, but the trick is, no major player, yet.
T\A does not take that into account

Top 20 Shareholders as at 4 May 2009
Shareholders Shares (m) (%)

1 National Nominees Limited 119.99 11.58
2 J P Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 117.44 11.33
3 HSBC Custody Nominees (Aust) Limited 94.39 9.20
4 ANZ Nominees Limited 95.06 9.17
5 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 79.02 7.63
6 RBC Global Services Aust Nom Pty Ltd 27.44 2.65
7 Cogent Nominees Pty Limited 10.39 1.00
8 AMP Life Limited 9.33 0.90
9 Sunrise investments Corporation 8.38 0.81
10 Bond Street Custodians Limited 6.29 0.61
11 Queensland Investment Corporation 4.35 0.42
12 Mathews Capital Partners Pty Ltd 3.46 0.33
13 Merrilly Lynch (Aust) Nominees Pty Ltd 3.21 0.31
14 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 0.15 0.30
15 UBS Nominees Pty Ltd 3.11 0.30
16 BNP Paribas <BNP Cooper Neff A/C> 2.87 0.28
17 Equity Trustees Ltd 2.59 0.25
18 New Economy Com Nominees Pty Ltd 2.33 0.22
19 Mr Reginald George Nelson 2.30 0.22
20 CS Fourth Nominess Pty Ltd 2.17 0.21

TOTAL 594.25 57.72

Well of course top 20 shareholders don't tell us anything as most of these are nominee companies holding for various beneficial owners.

It's the " substantial shareholder" announcements that we need to keep an eye on!
Various Mathews Capital accounts seems to be one of the biggest with a total of 6.44% between them.