BEACH PETROLEUM - BPT

[Phaedrus]

How come BPT is still sitting at the station when all the other energy gravytrains headed North months ago?

[shasta]

How come BPT is still sitting at the station when all the other energy gravytrains headed North months ago?

It's a big slow train, with alot of baggage/weight, that's in no hurry

There geothermal interests may spark some SP action, the drilling is in progress

[shasta]

BPT - Presentation re DLS T/O

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=173142

[tricha]

Due to information from the latest presentation. Going by the data available of 65 million P2 reserves @ $40 a barrel OZ = 2,600,000,000 / 1,030,000,000 shares + 17 cents a share cash = Valuation of $2.69 cents a share.

This is not allowing for exploration upside or anything else Beach owns.

And if u bought recently @ around 80 cents, it's been a great ride and there is a lot more to come.

[Bilo]

Due to information from the latest presentation. Going by the data available of 65 million P2 reserves @ $40 a barrel OZ = 2,600,000,000 / 1,030,000,000 shares + 17 cents a share cash = Valuation of $2.69 cents a share.

This is not allowing for exploration upside or anything else Beach owns.

And if u bought recently @ around 80 cents, it's been a great ride and there is a lot more to come.

Where does your AUD40 per barrel for P2 reserves come from Tricha? 30pc oil rest is gas of some form...

[upside_umop]

I wouldnt take tricha's valuations very seriously...

-$40 is a pie in the sky figure.

-Most production is gas ~65% which achieves lower prices per boe than oil.

-Taking taxes/royaties off tricha's 'formula' probably wont even achieve the magical $40 for oil.

-Production costs will drop this further.

-Time value of money is not taken into account...

Sorry tricha, but your really ought to diclose that those figures are 'pie in the sky.'

[shasta]

I wouldnt take tricha's valuations very seriously...

-$40 is a pie in the sky figure.

-Most production is gas ~65% which achieves lower prices per boe than oil.

-Taking taxes/royaties off tricha's 'formula' probably wont even achieve the magical $40 for oil.

-Production costs will drop this further.

-Time value of money is not taken into account...

Sorry tricha, but your really ought to diclose that those figures are 'pie in the sky.'

Thats funny i mentioned about the wild PPP valuations (which were outrageous), & everyone was talking about what premium there was, rather than discounting, in relation to there reserves.

Can't have it both ways huh?

BPT - Weekly Drilling

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=173164

Tricha's figures aren't that far off actually

Read page 9, 17, 19 in particular

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=172602

$50/bbl profit for Oil, & $20/bbl equivalent profit for Gas

Nb, Beach has been getting close to $A100/bbl all year due to hedging!

Mentions 63 mmboe Reserves (Oil 15mmbo, & Gas 238PJ = 48mmboe)

For the Cooper basin only ($1.66 per share)

Oil 50 x 15m = 750m, Gas 20 x 48m = 960m, total = $1710m

Excludes the Contingent Resource of 83 mmboe (conventional gas), & 179mmboe (unconventional gas) - Nb, Santos operates this area & has booked the contingent resource

For Gippsland Basin ($0.24 per share)

Oil reserves are 5mmbo (net to BPT) = 50 x 5m = $250m

There is also a Gas Resource of 249 PJ (roughly 50mmboe) but i won't include that either. (I'll do some more research on this figure & it's origin)

For Egypt ($0.10 per share)

Oil Reserves 2mmbo (net to BPT) = 50 x 2m = $100m

Excludes any potential reserves mentioned in the presentation

Sum of the parts 1710m + 250m + 100m = 2060/1030m shares = $2

If we attribute even $5 profit on the Contingent Resources (that Santos have booked) thats 5 x 262 mmboe = $1310m, over another $1 per share.

2060+1310 = 3370/1030 = $3.27 per share

So Tricha's figures are in the ball park!

Page 19 mentions:

Production, transport & royalty costs are $25/bbl (based on $A90/bbl)

F&D costs are $10/bbl

BTW, BPT closed at 82.5c = ~approx 50% discount to the Cooper Basin Reserves alone

BPT Base valuation = $2.00

BPT Valuation incl Contingent Resource (Cooper Basin only) = $3.27*

*Using an ultra conservative $5 profit, as unproven reserves at this point.

[upside_umop]

Thats funny i mentioned about the wild PPP valuations (which were outrageous), & everyone was talking about what premium there was, rather than discounting, in relation to there reserves.

Can't have it both ways huh?

I thought I'd be nice about this little subject because you had got it so wrong and let it go...yes, I remember the bagging you gave PPP and the baggings I gave OEL. But who got it right?

You were bagging PPP as a cashbox with no direction when it was in low 20/late teen bracket. You even wanted to bet OEL against it on which one would make it to 50 cents first...well the rest is history even if the bet didnt go ahead.

PPP ~ 49 cents vs OEL ~ 7 cents!

So, shasta, whats this about having it both ways? I dont see any connection I'm sorry.

Maybe if I have time, I'll bring up some quotes from the threads to haunt you! Quickly, go delete em!

BPT - Weekly Drilling

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=173164

Cool they've got drilling! No leverage though!

Tricha's figures aren't that far off actually

Read page 9, 17, 19 in particular

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=172602

(1) - $50/bbl profit for Oil, & $20/bbl equivalent profit for Gas

Nb, Beach has been getting close to $A100/bbl all year due to hedging!

Mentions 63 mmboe Reserves (Oil 15mmbo, & Gas 238PJ = 48mmboe)

For the Cooper basin only ($1.66 per share)

(2) Oil 50 x 15m = 750m, Gas 20 x 48m = 960m, total = $1710m

(3) Excludes the Contingent Resource of 83 mmboe (conventional gas), & 179mmboe (unconventional gas) - Nb, Santos operates this area & has booked the contingent resource

(4) For Gippsland Basin ($0.24 per share)

Oil reserves are 5mmbo (net to BPT) = 50 x 5m = $250m

There is also a Gas Resource of 249 PJ (roughly 50mmboe) but i won't include that either. (I'll do some more research on this figure & it's origin)

(5) For Egypt ($0.10 per share)

Oil Reserves 2mmbo (net to BPT) = 50 x 2m = $100m

Excludes any potential reserves mentioned in the presentation

(6) Sum of the parts 1710m + 250m + 100m = 2060/1030m shares = $2

If we attribute even $5 profit on the Contingent Resources (that Santos have booked) thats 5 x 262 mmboe = $1310m, over another $1 per share.

2060+1310 = 3370/1030 = $3.27 per share

So Tricha's figures are in the ball park!

Page 19 mentions:

Production, transport & royalty costs are $25/bbl (based on $A90/bbl)

F&D costs are $10/bbl

BTW, BPT closed at 82.5c = ~approx 50% discount to the Cooper Basin Reserves alone

BPT Base valuation = $2.00

BPT Valuation incl Contingent Resource (Cooper Basin only) = $3.27*

*Using an ultra conservative $5 profit, as unproven reserves at this point.

As I said, a lot more 'unprofitable' gas than oil.

(1) One question. When does hedging run out? Look to the quarterly activities...looks like you've only 1 million barrels left in hedging. Bugger! No more $50 profit per barrel me thinks...

(2) What your forgeting here is that as fields age, their production declines, and production costs becomes a greater portion of revenue, eventually making it uncommercial. Thats very basic thinking, and I'm surprised you didnt think of that. To think that they're going to make same amount of dollars in cashflow on the first barrel of oil as the last is just ridiculous. Go back to school.

(3) We can talk about contingent resources all day...if your into that, lets look at CUE!

(4) Again, as per (2), your dreaming thinking your going to get the same cashflow per barrel for the last drop of oil as the first.

(5) As per (2) and (4). Same reasoning.

(6) This really confuses me?! Doesnt sum of parts mean using 'cashflow'?

Why use a profit figure?

Oh dear, you havent even taken into account time value of money. C'mon shasta, this is part of 100 level accounting papers.

Maybe I can borrow a few k off you and pay it back in 50 years. No interest though right?

Show me an analyst report that has done a valuation with profit, assumes its constant for all reserves, then does a sum of parts, then doesnt discount it back?

Dont get me wrong, BPT looks 'ok' and probably is undervalued.

However, again, I reiterate, do not trust tricha's valuations. I'll even add for you not to trust shasta's valuation on this particular occasion.

Try that calculation again, using discounted cashflow analysis, then add your parts together.

[macduffy]

Meanwhile, poor old misunderstood Beach trades solidly in its channel, closing today at 82.5c.

And by the way, those AOE shares that it sold recently at around $3-76 were going strong today in a weak market and closed above $4.

[tricha]

Meanwhile, poor old misunderstood Beach trades solidly in its channel, closing today at 82.5c.

And by the way, those AOE shares that it sold recently at around $3-76 were going strong today in a weak market and closed above $4.

They need the money for Cooper

anyway upside_umop, yes I should have explained as before.

My calculation is simplistic and I will do a review of the Cat 1 oilers when all the numbers are out.
All based on the same simple calculation and I will be buying\selling\holding accordingly.

Beach is Cheap and AA is onto it yeah, go figure.