BEACH PETROLEUM - BPT

**shasta** · 30-08-2009, 01:01 PM

Originally Posted by Phaedrus

No, there aren't any as yet, but here are some helpful suggestions, some things to watch out for.

(1) The overall situation. BPT's steep plunge has levelled out and it is has now been in a trading range for about 9 months, so far. Trading ranges can last for years and of course there is always the risk that when they end they might break Down, rather than Up, as hoped for. A break above the established Resistance level would of course constitute a Buy signal, albeit a fairly late one.

(2) On Balance Volume. This excellent indicator has been in a relentless downtrend for well over a year, so far. There is a confirmed trendline in place and a break of this would constitute a BUY signal.

(3) Slow Stochastic Oscillator. This indicator too has been negative for well over a year. A break above its previous peaks would be an indication of some improvement in market sentiment toward this stock.

(4) Relative Strength Index. This oscillator is mid-range at the moment and is going nowhere in keeping with the shareprice. The RSI identifies good entry points (green arrows) for those wanting to buy into BPT. It also identifies good exit points (red arrows) for those wanting out of BPT or for those attempting to trade this stock. Currently it would not have you holding BPT and is nowhere near triggering a Buy signal.

(5) 200 day Moving Average. This indicator is generally used only by very conservative long-term investors. It has worked very well in keeping such investors out of BPT for the last year or so. Interestingly, this moving average has skimmed above all peaks of the last 14 months, fitting it extremely well to the price action. A break above it would provide a Buy signal.

(6) Volume. It is good to keep a watchful eye on volume. What you are looking for is an atypical increase in volume on an Up-day. (A tall green bar in the volume histogram). Ideally, you want this to be linked with a price increase of some reasonable significance. Tall RED bars are NOT what you want.

(7) Trendline break? Not a candidate with this stock. To draw a valid trendline, you MUST have a trend. BPT is currently trendless, crabbing sideways going nowhere. The Red dashed line is therefore NOT a trendline and a break of it would mean absolutely nothing. Ditto the Green dashed line.

(8) Summary. These 6 helpful suggestions offer some potential BPT Buy signals. None have triggered as yet and none are close to triggering. When/if they do, remember that it is not good practice to act on the basis of any single signal in isolation and ideally some degree of confirmation from other indicators should sought before acting.

Appreciate you taking the time to post the chart & comments, Phaedrus.

I thought i saw an ascending triangle within the red & dark green trend lines?

Are you saying because BPT is trendless/range bound, this is a false signal?

Just wanna make sure i'm not seeing things here.

Cheers

**Phaedrus** · 30-08-2009, 02:07 PM

Triangles are continuation patterns. As such, they are usually nothing more than a pause in the prevailing trend. That's why the trend leading into a triangle is so important - it is the most likely direction of the breakout. Now, the triangle you see here was simply part of a trading range - there was no preceding trend to be continued. It therefore does not qualify as a triangle top or bottom and so gives us no clue as to its likely breakout direction.
I suppose you could argue that as a continuation pattern, it is most likely to continue whatever preceded it. In this case, a trading range!

**tricha** · 30-08-2009, 06:43 PM

Originally Posted by Phaedrus

Triangles are continuation patterns. As such, they are usually nothing more than a pause in the prevailing trend. That's why the trend leading into a triangle is so important - it is the most likely direction of the breakout. Now, the triangle you see here was simply part of a trading range - there was no preceding trend to be continued. It therefore does not qualify as a triangle top or bottom and so gives us no clue as to its likely breakout direction.
I suppose you could argue that as a continuation pattern, it is most likely to continue whatever preceded it. In this case, a trading range!

You will never see a buy signal for BPT, u will be looking in the rear view mirror.

as usual, watching the train leave the port.
Anyway how r those PRC shares going.

U must be weak in the head to buy such a fundamentally stuffed company, pouring money down the " black hole of Calcutta "

Comparing BPT to PRC is like comparing a plum to a imaginary coal train.

A plum that delivers regular cheques.

**JBmurc** · 30-08-2009, 10:05 PM

I see BPT management are really good at lining their own pockets

MD Reginald Nelson took home $5,759,484 including a cash bonus and sign on payment of $2,765,625.
CEO Hector Gordon $1,292,494
CFO and Company Secretary K Pressler just$930,930.

Nice wee pay's even the senior staff-

Gibbins- $710,154
Moseby-$713,593
Master $588,939
Ms Oster $424,001.
Rob Kennedy the Non-Executive Chairman $251,790

Corporate · 31-08-2009, 07:15 AM

Originally Posted by JBmurc

I see BPT management are really good at lining their own pockets

MD Reginald Nelson took home $5,759,484 including a cash bonus and sign on payment of $2,765,625.
CEO Hector Gordon $1,292,494
CFO and Company Secretary K Pressler just$930,930.

Nice wee pay's even the senior staff-

Gibbins- $710,154
Moseby-$713,593
Master $588,939
Ms Oster $424,001.
Rob Kennedy the Non-Executive Chairman $251,790

Great spot. Just confirms to me why I shouldn't be considering BPT.

**Grand Uber** · 31-08-2009, 08:52 AM

Originally Posted by tricha

You will never see a buy signal for BPT, u will be looking in the rear view mirror.

as usual, watching the train leave the port.
Anyway how r those PRC shares going.

U must be weak in the head to buy such a fundamentally stuffed company, pouring money down the " black hole of Calcutta "

Comparing BPT to PRC is like comparing a plum to a imaginary coal train.

A plum that delivers regular cheques.

Tricha it looks like PRC has offered much better trading and investing opportunities (long and short) than BPT has over the past couple of years.

**JBmurc** · 31-08-2009, 09:03 AM

Originally Posted by Corporate

Great spot. Just confirms to me why I shouldn't be considering BPT.

Well it's only one thing I'm sure BPT shareholders can find penalty to like about the future of BPT just not to much about the current S/P.

**Phaedrus** · 31-08-2009, 09:10 AM

Originally Posted by tricha

You will never see a buy signal for BPT

Gosh, that's a bit defeatist, Tricha! When/if Buy signals appear, we will both see them on the very day they are formed - I've even told you what to look for.

Originally Posted by tricha

Comparing BPT to PRC is like comparing a plum to a imaginary coal train.

It is interesting to compare the performance of these 2 stocks over the last year or so. One was in a steep downtrend, triggered Buy signals, rose sharply, triggered Sell signals, then fell. The other was in a steep downtrend which..... flattened out a bit.

Originally Posted by tricha

Anyway how r those PRC shares going. U must be weak in the head to buy such a fundamentally stuffed company, pouring money down the " black hole of Calcutta"

Empty rhetoric, Tricha. Let's look at the facts. Here is a pristine PRC chart. To Buy, you are looking for a strengthening shareprice accompanied by above average volume (Green bars). To Sell, you are looking for a weakening shareprice, accompanied by above average volume. (Red bars) Can you see any Buy or Sell signals here, Tricha?

The On Balance Volume indicator combines these two factors into a single plot. The idea is to Buy when the OBV stops falling and starts rising. You Sell when the OBV stops rising and starts falling. Can you see a Buy signal there, Tricha? Can you see any Sell signals? You should be able to spot them quite easily.

Anyone following these signals made about 50% in less than 2 months.