BEACH PETROLEUM - BPT

[Phaedrus]

Anyone like to do a meaningful T\A on Beach?

BPT is in a longterm downtrend. You can see from the chart that it is now worth less than half what it was 4 years ago. It is of course possible to make money trading such a stock, but as a "buy and hold" candidate, it has been a disaster. The longer you have held it, the more you have lost. Nevertheless, it is in a short-term uptrend and is currently neither overbought nor oversold.

I doubt Beach is T\A able.

Not at all! Just because BPT is in a downtrend doesn't mean that TA is inapplicable or useless! In fact, it is easy to find indicators that enable you to profitably trade falling stocks such as this. Let's apply the most commonly used oscillator (Relative Strength Index) using its default period of 14 days. As you can see from the chart, this has signalled a total of 5 trades over the last 4 years, 3 winning and 2 losing, giving an overall gain of 71%. I admit that this is nothing spectacular, but a gain of 71% beats the hell out of the 52% loss worn by those that held BPT over this period. Just 5 trades in 4 years is not a lot and it is easy to see that the RSI default period of 14 days is too long for this stock. If we use a shorter period of, say, 9 days, the results are even better, giving 8 wins and 2 losses for a gain of over 105%. It is not good practice, though, to act on the signals of any single indicator and the use of other indicators in conjunction with the RSI gives a more robust system with greater gains and more consistent results.

My favourite stock based on fundamentals is Beach.

Do you still value BPT at $4.33 Tricha? It would appear that the market values it at a lot less than that. This is one of the problems with FA, of course. Even in the unlikely event that you are right, unless the market agrees with you, such a "valuation" means nothing.

TA is a load of bollocks

You are entitled to your opinion, Tricha, and if you choose not to use TA at all, that is your loss. The above example shows that TA can make you money even on a losing stock such as BPT, but of course we both know that a single example of a single indicator on a single stock hardly constitutes proof of TA's efficacy. For that you would need to go to much larger more comprehensive studies, such as this one :-

http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9871/...paper_9871.pdf

The maths involved is beyond the comprehension of most of us, but the conclusion is clear enough. TA works.

[tricha]

[QUOTE=Phaedrus;301805]Do you still value BPT at $4.33 Tricha? It would appear that the market values it at a lot less than that. This is one of the problems with FA, of course. Even in the unlikely event that you are right, unless the market agrees with you, such a "valuation" means nothing.

On holiday and will reply in full when back, Valuation was around$2.30 and with P2 downgrade, slight reduction.

No value placed on Coal Shale Gas.

Valuation means everything, I can bounce in and out and sleep on this undervalued stock, knowing full WELL that when the market catches on, I will remain at the " Beach"

[Rabbi]

Any following this one. Chart & story looking good.

disc hold

Beach seem to be first off the block into Shale Oil and Gas and apparently they have huge acreage in the Cooper Basin. If this isn't enough they have just teamed up with Sundance Energy in the USA to drill over there as well. Probably, this activity has the market more than a little interested.

[shasta]

Beach seem to be first off the block into Shale Oil and Gas and apparently they have huge acreage in the Cooper Basin. If this isn't enough they have just teamed up with Sundance Energy in the USA to drill over there as well. Probably, this activity has the market more than a little interested.

Given there existing relationship, if this shale gas is gunna take off, you'd think Santos would be eyeing up Beach on the cheap

[foodee]

Beach seem to be first off the block into Shale Oil and Gas and apparently they have huge acreage in the Cooper Basin. If this isn't enough they have just teamed up with Sundance Energy in the USA to drill over there as well. Probably, this activity has the market more than a little interested.

Have re-enter a wee while ago at 72c.
Story is still good and chart reassuring.
Interesting times ahead.

Cheers

[macduffy]

If this isn't enough they have just teamed up with Sundance Energy in the USA to drill over there as well

It's certainly not enough for BPT who spread their interests outside Australia pretty wide.

Egypt, Tanzania, Albania, Spain, New Zealand, now USA.

Have I missed any?

[Pipeline]

Beach seem to be first off the block into Shale Oil and Gas and apparently they have huge acreage in the Cooper Basin. If this isn't enough they have just teamed up with Sundance Energy in the USA to drill over there as well. Probably, this activity has the market more than a little interested.

Not that it is a race on this, but I think you will find that AWE is well ahead of BPT in the Shale Gas arena in Australia.

They have drilled their first well, cut 3 cores and are planning for the next phase.

AWE is doing the work and BPT is talking about it.

Further, look at gas prices as a guide to the economics of these Shale Gas plays. WA gas prices are double the prevailing Cooper Basin prices, are closer to market and infrastructure and are in a market which is not flooded with CSM now and into the future.

Look west young man and you will see the real Shale gas play in Australia.

Cheers

Pipe.

PS I do not own BPT, never have. I have a large holding in AWE.

[macduffy]

AWE is doing the work and BPT is talking about it.

Yes!

BPT are very good on the investor relations front!

I hold both AWE and BPT with many more in the former than the latter these days.

And by the way, BPT have just issued another 7 million odd shares o/a the interim dividend. That's to go with the one billion and eighty-one million already on issue!

[tricha]

Yes!

BPT are very good on the investor relations front!

I hold both AWE and BPT with many more in the former than the latter these days.

And by the way, BPT have just issued another 7 million odd shares o/a the interim dividend. That's to go with the one billion and eighty-one million already on issue!

My next review will show AWE's value falling ( just like PPP and NZO) spending heaps ( how much did Hoki cost them ), Tui in severe decline.

BPT roughly staying the same.

But in saying that if Tui holes come good all sweat, if not they are screwed.

Beach might have a billion shares but it's value worth billions and more to come.

And I hold a few AWE and lots of Beach.

[tricha]

My next review will show AWE's value falling ( just like PPP and NZO) spending heaps ( how much did Hoki cost them ), Tui in severe decline.

BPT roughly staying the same.

But in saying that if Tui holes come good all sweat, if not they are screwed.

Beach might have a billion shares but it's value worth billions and more to come.

And I hold a few AWE and lots of Beach.

Reading between the lines, Beach should report a good profit this quarter.


BP profits double on oil price rises


BP has benefitted from the rising cost of oil

Profits at oil giant BP have more than doubled from a year ago on the back of rising oil prices. Replacement cost profit for January to March was $5.6bn (£3.6bn), compared with $2.4bn for the first quarter of 2009 - a 135% rise.
The profit figure is also up from the $3.45bn profit made in the last three months of 2009.
BP has benefited from rising global oil prices, which averaged $76 a barrel in the first three months of 2010.
That compares with an average of $41 a barrel a year ago.
Although demand for oil has remained relatively weak, the price of oil has been boosted by optimism over the recovery in the global economy, and speculation by traders.
BP said oil production in the past year had remained broadly flat, and production in 2010 as a whole was expected to be slightly lower than in 2009.
The company also gave an update on the oil spill currently being tackled in BP's Gulf of Mexico oil fields.
It said that improvements in the weather had allowed it to accelerate its clean-up programme.
"This, combined with the light, thin oil we are dealing with has further increased our confidence that we can tackle this spill offshore," said BP chief executive Tony Hayward.