BEACH PETROLEUM - BPT

[soulman]

Well done FD. Nice switch too.

[macduffy]

I've also sold the last of my BPT. Did much better than I expected a year or so ago but it seems the reality of converting that shale gas contingent resource to production is now exercising the market. Yesterday's Capital Guidance chart appears to show a roughly $200m shortfall between cash on hand at 31 December and expected expenditure for the remainder of the FY so it seems that some sort of capital raising will be required. A very exciting trip this last twelve months, though!

[Financially dependant]

I've also sold the last of my BPT. Did much better than I expected a year or so ago but it seems the reality of converting that shale gas contingent resource to production is now exercising the market. Yesterday's Capital Guidance chart appears to show a roughly $200m shortfall between cash on hand at 31 December and expected expenditure for the remainder of the FY so it seems that some sort of capital raising will be required. A very exciting trip this last twelve months, though!

I have no doubt there will be someone in the wings to farm into the shale gas production (they keep going on about esso for starters) and with that news I expect another re-rating....but a profit is a profit

soulman

Well done FD. Nice switch too.

Thanks soulman, I think BPT will be worth looking at again soon but the WA shale is too tempting atm...

[Rabbi]

I've also sold the last of my BPT. Did much better than I expected a year or so ago but it seems the reality of converting that shale gas contingent resource to production is now exercising the market. Yesterday's Capital Guidance chart appears to show a roughly $200m shortfall between cash on hand at 31 December and expected expenditure for the remainder of the FY so it seems that some sort of capital raising will be required. A very exciting trip this last twelve months, though!

Beach in trading halt at the moment.
Obviously couldn't get a farminee on the right terms so Beach going alone to develop their shale prospects.
a couple of days for the market to digest this one.

345 million Capital raising.
One for eight non- renounceable at $1.40 to raise $195 million.
$150 million in convertible notes.

[macduffy]

From FN Arena.

"BPT - BEACH PETROLEUM LIMITED
UBS rates BPT as Neutral (3) - Beach is raising $345m to fund Cooper Basin capex over the next few years and top up working capital. Taking the raising and capex guidance into account sees the broker reduce forecast earnings per share by 3-12% in FY12-14. The broker sees participation as an early vote of confidence in the long term development of Copper shale, which the broker notes is already being afforded a 60% premium within the stock price valuation. The broker remains on Neutral. Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: minus $0.075 (current price is over target). If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY12 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.69.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 47.7%.Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.Current consensus price target is $ 1.40, suggesting downside of - 11.1%(ex-dividends).Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
"

[tricha]

I've also sold the last of my BPT. Did much better than I expected a year or so ago but it seems the reality of converting that shale gas contingent resource to production is now exercising the market. Yesterday's Capital Guidance chart appears to show a roughly $200m shortfall between cash on hand at 31 December and expected expenditure for the remainder of the FY so it seems that some sort of capital raising will be required. A very exciting trip this last twelve months, though!

WELL done macduffy, you called it spot on! The capital raising, great take.

[weasel]

Hi all, I am a small shareholder of BPT and was wondering how/if I can take part in the capital raising? I live in Europe and trade with ASB Securities. Thanks in advance for guidance.

[macduffy]

BPT are due to issue the Entitlement Offer booklet on 4 April so important questions such as - will they restrict it to residents of Aust and NZ? - which is often the case, particularly with these "accelerated" issues are yet to be answered. In these cases companies often sell the rights to the issue to institutions and pay the net proceeds to shareholders concerned. But I'm getting ahead of the game here!

A lot may depend on whether you hold the shares directly in your own name or in an ASB nominee company. If the latter, I suggest you contact ASB.

There is an interim timetable on BPT's website - accessible also through ASX announcements. At this stage, the offer is due to open on 4 April and close on 20 April.

[weasel]

Thanks macduffy, much appreciated. The shares are in my name. I'll check the announcements during April.

[macduffy]

FWIW, from FN Arena:

"BPT - BEACH PETROLEUM LIMITED
Citi rates BPT as Sell, High Risk (5) - Target $1.34 (was $1.31). Citi has adjusted its model for Beach to account for the view there is major volume upside potential for Cooper conventional gas, while there is also scope for some upside from shale gas in the Basin.
Minor changes to forecasts mean an increase in price target. Citi retains a Sell rating on the stock given the expectation Copper gas capex will remain high for some time.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.01 If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY12 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.35%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.84.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of 47.3%.Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.Current consensus price target is $ 1.40, suggesting upside of 5.0%(ex-dividends).Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources "

Interestingly, Citigroup Global Markets Pty Ltd is one of the Joint Lead Managers and Underwriters to the issue. I don't imagine that sub-underwriters are too thrilled to read the above!