CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[winner69]

Caltex Aussie say their profits will be less this year and shareprice took a ahmmering

Reasons cited .... forecasts in respect of
external factors such as refining and marketing margins, freight costs and foreign exchange
rates.

These apply to NZR????

[craic]

No.

[Chris]

Winner... actually the answer is yes.

USD strongly effects the profit of NZR. Their fees are recieved in USD so a shift from their "hopeful" 59c range to the current 72ish knocks or about 1.50NZD per bbl or 5m nzd per month..

Freight costs I belive will work in the favour of NZR but without seeing some WS rates I wouldnt know.

Marketing costs wont effect it.

Refining margins may have an impact on Caltex Aussie if they have to import product which I believe they are in that situation at the moment.

[craic]

The answer is still no. NZR is a refining monopoly in NZ. Caltex Australia is a fuel company.
Read the notices
The New Zealand Refining Company Limited Announcement (issued @ 9:38am)
NZR02/06/2005GENERAL REL: 0938 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited GENERAL: NZR: High Margins for the March/April Period Year to date throughput is close to plan. Throughput for the two month periodending April 2005 was 6.378 million barrels. The impact of shipping delayshas been mitigated by higher than planned production. Margins continued to strengthen from the begining of the year, providing anexcellent result for the March/April period. Since then margins have taperedoff to around the USD6.00 level. The average exchange rate for the two month period was .7247. The Year toDate average being .7190. A full copy of this release can be requested from Listed Company Relations byemailing lcr@nzx.com.End CA:00116219 For:NZR Type:GENERAL Time:2005-06-02:09:38:43

[Chris]

Craic. Caltex Aussie are an integrated fuel company with refinerys and marketing (no oil fields)

From my earlier posts I am still prediciting a better year than last year... major factor to include is no total refinery shut down... however... the new plant is coming on line very soon so it will be interesting to see what hiccups that is going to give us!!

[Neo-Con]

I bought a small parcel of this stock today, I know I am a bit late to the party (they have put on 30%ish in the last month)but I think it will keep growing for a couple of reasons

I saw some analysis on growth in oil demand v growth in refining capacity. Growth in oil demand is expected to be somewhat higher than growth in refining capacity. In fact some ppl think that the current high oil prices are more to do with lack of refining capacity than they are to do with fundamental lack of oil. Basic economic rules would suggest that given this demand pressure refining margins long term will only continue to increase. This increase as well as the weakening of the kiwi dollar (all their income is calculated in USD) will be likely to result in a growing bottom line for NZR. Even based on current earnings they are cheap (PE of 11ish) when you factor in expected medium term earnings growth you know you are on to a winner.

[Lawso]

I hope no NZR holders had a heart attack when they read the Sunday Star-Times piece today, headed Oil's Well for a Bigger Refinery. Quote from the article:
"Shares in NZ Refining have rocketed from 20 cents a year ago to 46c last week . . ."[:0]
Or has there been a 100 for one restructuring that escaped my notice?

[craic]

I put NZ Sunday Star Times in my Google tool bar and got this article.

NZRC in no rush to split shares

MONDAY , 11 JULY 2005

By PAUL GORMAN
The country's most expensive shares are still odds-on favourite for a share split but the New Zealand Refining Company is not rushing a decision.

NZRC shares are trading on the New Zealand Exchange at about $46.50 each, having rocketed 45 per cent from the $32 mark that some "mum and dad" shareholders already believed was too high.

They criticised the share structure at the annual meeting at the end of April.

One vocal investor at the meeting, Bryan Burnside, has taken advantage of the boom since then to sell.

But he says he cannot believe how much higher the share price has risen since he sold.

NZRC chairman Ian Farrant told BusinessDay late last week that the board had yet to look into a share split. "At some point I'm pretty sure we'll address the issue."

At the April meeting, Mr Farrant said he was sceptical a split would make the share issue more liquid, saying NZRC tended to be illiquid anyway.

Any division would have to be at four or even five new shares to one, he said then.

Now, with the share price above $45, the ratio for a split may need to be as high as eight-to-one.

Mr Burnside said he decided about a month ago to sell the 1500 NZRC shares he had held for five years because he thought the price was unlikely to go any higher.

"I sold them at $41 (each). I thought it was a bloody silly price (for anyone) to pay for them and I'll get out.

"However, since then it's gone to $44. I thought I'd done well."

Mr Burnside was still of the view that NZRC had to split the shares, as the present price was out of the reach of most small investors.

Other "expensive" NZX shares at the end of last week include Caledonia Investment, at $38.50 each, ANZ Banking Group, at $23.20 each, and Westpac (NZ) Investments, at $21.80 each.

[craic]

Up another 50 cps this morning. Going to Cairns next monday for a couple of weeks and hope to find it at 5000 cps on my return - to pay for the trip, that is.

[whatsup]

I seem to remember that NZR split 3/1 or something during the late 80's , this certainly been a great share but really a proxy to the oil price ,