CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[sb9]

Margin/throughput report for Jan-Feb '16 should be out anytime this week. Will be interesting to see the GRM numbers...

[Sideshow Bob]

Thanks for that, definitely slightly cleared the mud!

So they waited till they owned the dividend and then sold the shares. Makes more sense now!

But the share price was still going down last week, when it was cum-dividend!

[BlackPeter]

But the share price was still going down last week, when it was cum-dividend!

Nobody said that the dividend-status (cum or ex) is the only reason for the share price to move ...

People might have needed money to buy other stuff / stocks, or re-adjusted their portfolios (lots of people had and probably still have over exposure to NZR, given that it was a couple of years ago quite cheap), or trusted their technical analysis skills (follow the herd), or maybe they assumed that electric vehicles take over in NZ within the next x months / years (and nobody need petrol / diesel anymore), or maybe they believe the NZD is shooting for the stars (it might), or maybe they assume(d) that refining margin will drop through the floor. Or maybe they think imputation is a medical term and don't like fully imputed dividends (and lots of them) ... - who knows?

[sb9]

Nobody said that the dividend-status (cum or ex) is the only reason for the share price to move ...

People might have needed money to buy other stuff / stocks, or re-adjusted their portfolios (lots of people had and probably still have over exposure to NZR, given that it was a couple of years ago quite cheap), or trusted their technical analysis skills (follow the herd), or maybe they assumed that electric vehicles take over in NZ within the next x months / years (and nobody need petrol / diesel anymore), or maybe they believe the NZD is shooting for the stars (it might), or maybe they assume(d) that refining margin will drop through the floor. Or maybe they think imputation is a medical term and don't like fully imputed dividends (and lots of them) ... - who knows?

Classic, love it

[BlackPeter]

Jan/Feb throughput report is out:

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/232066.pdf

Throughput volume more "average" this time due to supply delays towards the end of February (who would have thought given the current oil glut - but we are obviously sitting at the far end of the civilised world), but still a cracker margin - continuing to stay in the "capped" zone (i.e. saving something in case the margin drops during the year).

Not stellar results, but more than satisfactory I would say.

[bull....]

grm would have been over 9 again if not for the poor operational performance

[sb9]

Jan/Feb throughput report is out:

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/232066.pdf

Throughput volume more "average" this time due to supply delays towards the end of February (who would have thought given the current oil glut - but we are obviously sitting at the far end of the civilised world), but still a cracker margin - continuing to stay in the "capped" zone (i.e. saving something in case the margin drops during the year.

Not stellar results, but more than satisfactory I would say.

On track I say...

[cyclist]

Jan/Feb throughput report is out:

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/232066.pdf

Throughput volume more "average" this time due to supply delays towards the end of February (who would have thought given the current oil glut - but we are obviously sitting at the far end of the civilised world), but still a cracker margin - continuing to stay in the "capped" zone (i.e. saving something in case the margin drops during the year.

Not stellar results, but more than satisfactory I would say.

Can anyone explain how a margin of US$7.96 ends up in the capped region? There is a comment in the pdf "Note: The GRM for a period may be above or below the Cap of USD 9.00 per barrel due to previous year price updates, which are not subject to the Floor/Cap in the current year", but I don't really understand it.

That aside, I think the key is Singapore margins still in the region of US$5. If they stay around that area, and with a more typical uplift value perhaps later in the year, then still very good.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a pullback in the share price. Might present a reasonable opportunity for those on the fence.

[Jinx]

With this year looking to be a lower result then last, is there the possibility of a div drop next year?
How can we expect a growing sp with lower performance?

[cyclist]

With this year looking to be a lower result then last, is there the possibility of a div drop next year?
How can we expect a growing sp with lower performance?

The somewhat ironic thing about the FY result is that (except for a possible currency tailwind surprise), it really was as good as it can possibly get. But with respect to dividends, there should a lot of flexibility to raise these in the current year.

Net cash inflow last year of $264m. Most was used for investing activities (mostly Te Mihi I assume) and paying back debt. Dividends (the 5c interim) was a measly $15m. Things can pull back somewhat while still giving plenty of scope for paying out higher dividends.