CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[sb9]

I'm happy hold as the yield looks pretty good and small correction in Oil and Currency isn't going to affect their long term profitability. The story might be bit different next week with Oil and Currency.

Would look to add more if it drops to unreasonable levels.

[Nasi Goreng]

I'm not holding and this does not look attractive at the moment. If 2015 year is as good as it gets, the use of PE to determine value is wrong or very risky. I think there is a lot of hope and crossed fingers if you are a long term NZR investor and that's why I got out last year. If they can deliver 40cps earnings for the next 7 years, then well done to all holders.

[BlackPeter]

NG - "attractive" is a quite subjective term. Some people find boring dividend earners attractive, and others fall for sexy growth companies who seldom hold their promises. In investment terms I prefer boring.

Maybe it is worthwhile to look a bit deeper into this share:

Average EPS over the last 11 years (i.e. after the big share split): 28,8 cents / share. This would make a long-term PE of 11 (still conservative, given that I didn't include the great results from 2000 to 2004 in this number). Not outrageous, but not bad either if we look at interest rates these days.

As well - the 48 cts per share they earned last year is historically not the maximum ... they have been e,g, from 2004 to 2008 above 40 cps, with a maximum of 67,4 cents. Sure - this was prior to the 2014 cap rise, but than - they used this money to increase their efficiency.

And sure - NZR is a cyclical share - with the last high earning period basically running from 2000 (couldn't find earlier data) to 2008. If you assume that this was a "one-off high" ... and 15 meagre years from here, than you are right. If we look however at another 7 or 8 year half-cycle, than it would be not too wrong to use (at least at the start of the next high - period) the forward PE as value indicator.

[golden city]

Just managed to top up more at 3.06

[Mickey]

Just managed to top up more at 3.06

Good score. I was in a meeting and it was back up to 3.10 when I got back to my computer so sitting on the sideline again. Still pretty good at 3.10 but just waiting to see which way it goes.

[Sideshow Bob]

200 day MA is still about $3.36 and 50 day $3.56.

In the meantime, I'll just console myself with the dividend Thursday.....

[BlackPeter]

Wow - what a drop - trading today sometimes even slightly below the $3 mark, though it feels that the resistance around this mark starts to build up.

Just wondering - is there anything the people selling at this price do know, which we don't? Or is this really just the pressure of the SP dropping below the MA 200 and the urge of sellers to follow the other lemmings over the cliff?

Not sure, whether I regret at some stage my decision to hold - but I remember similar drops with other (fundamentally sound and undervalued looking) stocks and always regretted, when I sold out following the TA wisdom.

Graham recommends to buy cheap and sell dear ... maybe I stick with his wisdom - hard enough for me to memorize this bit

[RTM]

Wow - what a drop - trading today sometimes even slightly below the $3 mark, though it feels that the resistance around this mark starts to build up.

Just wondering - is there anything the people selling at this price do know, which we don't? Or is this really just the pressure of the SP dropping below the MA 200 and the urge of sellers to follow the other lemmings over the cliff?

Not sure, whether I regret at some stage my decision to hold - but I remember similar drops with other (fundamentally sound and undervalued looking) stocks and always regretted, when I sold out following the TA wisdom.

Graham recommends to buy cheap and sell dear ... maybe I stick with his wisdom - hard enough for me to memorize this bit

Well....if it cheers you up at all...I just bought some. And will double up if they hit 270 something, hope I've got it right. Windy/ showery day up here and got a bit bored. Not sure that is the right motivation to buy. Fingers crossed.
Cheers, RTM

[sb9]

Wow - what a drop - trading today sometimes even slightly below the $3 mark, though it feels that the resistance around this mark starts to build up.

Just wondering - is there anything the people selling at this price do know, which we don't? Or is this really just the pressure of the SP dropping below the MA 200 and the urge of sellers to follow the other lemmings over the cliff?

Not sure, whether I regret at some stage my decision to hold - but I remember similar drops with other (fundamentally sound and undervalued looking) stocks and always regretted, when I sold out following the TA wisdom.

Graham recommends to buy cheap and sell dear ... maybe I stick with his wisdom - hard enough for me to memorize this bit

I'm holding too and far from thinking of selling. Watching very closely though by which I mean look to add more if it drops to some silly price level.

In the meantime, looking forward to the handsome divvy to come out in couple of days.

[golden city]

Just add more at 3.03