CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[macduffy]

It is a volatile stock. But in longer term. They always pay dividends. So happy to sit there. Especially my cost average is only 1.98

But not always. My imperfect memory harks back to a period 6 or 7 years ago when NZR passed on paying a divvy. But that's ancient history now!

[crabs]

It is a volatile stock. But in longer term. They always pay dividends. So happy to sit there. Especially my cost average is only 1.98

no divi at all paid in 2014 and only interim of 2 cents paid for the full year in 2013 .
a very dry spell

[cyclist]

The market cracks me up sometimes. Today's little pop has been building for a while with some big gaps in the sell depth and sellers holding firm. But you have to wonder what has changed since the sky was falling at the $2.40 levels a while ago.

My thoughts are that buying at this level will prove to be reasonable once the full year results come out (a long way off), but the half year is likely to disappoint and cause a resumption of selling I suspect.

Disc: Holding and in the black, but annoyed at myself for not selling a few at higher levels.

[golden city]

We might see surprised dividends coming. Because their cash flow still looking good with low debts

[macduffy]

Caltex profit hit by lower margins at their Brisbane refinery.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/en...28-gpu6w5.html

[BlackPeter]

The unspecified decline at Lytton was due to "lower first half refiner margins, offset by stronger production volumes", it said.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/en...#ixzz4CwBVhcyt
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Interesting, but shouldn't be a surprise for NZR holders - we get the ops/margin reports every 2 months. I'd think this effect is already well priced in. Throughput (no planned shutdown) should improve in the second half ... and margins - I guess we will see (but I am optimistic).

[bull....]

Caltex margin dropped 50% that's big drop in income

[Mickey]

What do NZR investors think the long term outlook is for this share? I'm currently down 33% on capital outlay, which I'm not too worried about if it's going to deliver on divvies. I'm looking at an investment horizon of at least 8-10 years.

[Nasi Goreng]

NZR is a bit of a gamblers stock IMO. It's hard to predict with any certainty that price will go higher or lower based on key drivers being NZD and the margins they make.

I owned the stock last year so did quite a few valuations based on NZD and margins and compared that with the spreadsheet on their investor presentations. Right now, I think SP is fair value based on above but if I wanted to buy, I would wait to see if there was a pull back to maybe $2.20. To get to $3, I think you will need some help from NZD and margins to increase from where they have been.

[Mickey]

NZR is a bit of a gamblers stock IMO. It's hard to predict with any certainty that price will go higher or lower based on key drivers being NZD and the margins they make.

I owned the stock last year so did quite a few valuations based on NZD and margins and compared that with the spreadsheet on their investor presentations. Right now, I think SP is fair value based on above but if I wanted to buy, I would wait to see if there was a pull back to maybe $2.20. To get to $3, I think you will need some help from NZD and margins to increase from where they have been.

Thanks for sharing your view N G