CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[FYA4999]

I reckon the NZR SP will rebound shortly. The sheep that are selling out will all of a sudden realise that there was no reason to sell and climb back on board. By that time, they'll probably pay for their shares at a higher price.

This company has given great returns over the years and should really be a long-term hold:

Total Shareholder Return
(avg annual rate)

1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr
121.6% 58.3% 50.9% 18.0%

This info comes from the ASB Securities website.

[k1w1]

good news today from NZR. Profit forecast to increase by 40%. Study to commence on increasing crude oil refining capacity by 20% which on their margins would be very worthwhile exercise.

[moe]

Yep up almost 5% today, all those folk who have dumped out of their shares over the last two weeks are probably getting back into it now.

[craic]

If you can find a better performing security or a better forecast/outlook on the NZ market - Please tell me about it.



NZR
28/10/2005
FORECAST

REL: 1247 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited

FORECAST: NZR: NZRC FY Fcast up 40% and $25m to develop capacity project

Refining Company plans to invest in future growth

The New Zealand Refining Company (NZRC) today announced it would develop a
proposal to invest in additional refining capacity at Marsden Point. The
proposal will provide the NZRC Board with sufficient detail to make a final
investment decision by the end of 2006 whether to proceed or not. The
development cost will be approximately $NZ25 million. If approved, the
expansion project is expected to cost about $500 million spread over three
years, with commissioning possible in 2009.

Chairman of NZRC, Ian Farrant, said the NZRC Board had agreed to develop a
proposal which would increase NZRC's crude oil intake by approximately 20 per
cent. Mr Farrant said the proposed upgrade would reduce NZRC's dependence on
imported residue for hydrocracking and blend stocks for the production of
petrol.

The NZRC Board also announced today that it expects a strong financial result
for 2005.

Chief Executive of NZRC, Thomas Zengerly, said the continued strong financial
performance of the NZRC had given the Board the confidence to develop the
proposal further.

"Profit forecasts are difficult to make in a market environment which can
change so rapidly as a result of external global events, as we have seen
through the impact of recent hurricanes in the United States on refining
margins and tanker freight rates.

"However, on the basis of currently available data and our expectations for
the rest of the year, I expect the company's full year Operating Surplus
After Tax for 2005 to exceed last year's result of $97.5 million by around 40
per cent."

Zengerly said the proposed expansion would ensure that NZRC was able to keep
up with New Zealand's growing demand for quality fuels.

"NZRC has passed an important milestone today. I am encouraged by the
confidence the Board of Directors has in this company to develop such a
significant growth project."

Key aspects of the project scope are to increase crude distillation capacity
by modifying an existing crude distillation unit, and constructing new
process units to increase refinery output, in particular the production of
petrol.

"We will work hard to develop the proposal in sufficient detail to provide
the Board with the information needed for a final investment decision by the
end of 2006," said Zengerly.
End CA:00122747 For:NZR Type:FORECAST Time:2005-10-28:12:47:54

[Snow Leopard]

Upbeat little article on the Stuff website with regard to yesterdays announcement.
I must admit that I bought at $5.15 & $5.25 yesterday as I was fortunate enough to spot the announcement soon after it came out.
I have been watching the price decline of late waiting for an opportunity to buy and hope that this was it.

With a projected profit of say $135m then the forward P/E for this year is currently 9.7

[rmbbrave]

Links can go bad here is the article...

$500m refinery upgrade planned
29 October 2005
By ADRIAN BATHGATE

The Marsden Point oil refinery is considering a $500 million upgrading that would create hundreds of jobs in Northland.


New Zealand Refining, which owns Marsden Point, near Whangarei, said yesterday that it was spending $25 million on a study to decide whether a full upgrading would go ahead. A decision is expected by the end of 2006.

An expanded refinery would add about 20 per cent to its capacity, taking the amount of New Zealand's petrol refined domestically to about 70 per cent.

NZ Refining chief executive Thomas Zengerly said it would also be able to make more of the components that needed to be added to crude oil to turn it into petrol.

"It will improve the independence of New Zealand as a country from imports."

Dr Zengerly said it was hard to say exactly what the economic benefits would be to Whangarei, but hundreds of jobs would be created. "That's all part of the detailed design and will come much later. But it would be excellent news for the region."

It was likely, however, that many of the new "units" needed to expand the refinery would be made overseas and shipped to Whangarei, because of a lack of expertise in New Zealand.

AdvertisementAdvertisementWork would begin in early 2007 and the expansion completed by mid-2009, he said.

The development would be one of the biggest in the refinery's 40 years, and the largest since the "Think Big" expansion of the early 1980s.

The refinery has completed a $180 million project to reduce the amount of pollutants in its fuels, to bring it into line with new regulations that take effect on January 1.

New Zealand Refining, with everyone else in the oil industry, is enjoying a golden run thanks to the insatiable demand of countries such as China for oil to drive economic growth.

Combined with a worldwide shortage of refining capacity, exacerbated by hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico, the margin the New Zealand refinery makes on each barrel of oil has more than doubled in the past two years to over $US8 ($NZ5.60).

New Zealand Refining also said yesterday that it expected net profit for the year to increase by 40 per cent to about $140 million.

New Zealand's four big oil companies together own about 72 per cent of NZ Refining. The parent companies of two of these, Mobil and Shell, yesterday announced a combined profit of US$17 billion for the three months ended September.

[winner69]

Share split to improve liquidity?

Average volume from Jan to time of split 4,079 per day

Average volume since split 42,379

Would have thought they would have expected more than a 4% increase when the shares became so cheap .... seeing all the 'sheep' have sold out and are now starting to buy back in

[Snow Leopard]

Well a coupla hundred thousand moved around today, including those I bought friday .

[truedragon]

NZR SP has been under pressure, well under 5 now.... This compare to CTX seems strange, even though oil price has pull back a little, but maybe something is up. Anybody in the konw can share.... or do you see this as a temporary pull back due to lower oil price and expansion concern and time to accumulate.

DISC: Hold NZR

[lambton]

I'm hurting, but holding.