CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

**Beagle** · 28-07-2016, 02:00 PM

KW's TA skills save me many thousands with this one. Sold when it dipped under the 100 day MA way back around mid $3 IIRC. Owe it to her not to buy back till its goes up through the 100 day MA line again. Owe her a big bear hug for her advice and knowledge previously freely shared on here. Massive loss to the forum her leaving.

So many variables with this business...happy to trade this one purely on TA signals.

**BlackPeter** · 28-07-2016, 06:11 PM

Originally Posted by Roger

KW's TA skills save me many thousands with this one. Sold when it dipped under the 100 day MA way back around mid $3 IIRC. Owe it to her not to buy back till its goes up through the 100 day MA line again. Owe her a big bear hug for her advice and knowledge previously freely shared on here. Massive loss to the forum her leaving.

So many variables with this business...happy to trade this one purely on TA signals.

Agreed - KW leaving this forum was (actually is) a huge loss for this forum and yes, if I look at the MA 100, than it would have been a good idea to sell at the point in time the share price dropped through it, though there is another short bounce, i.e. just following TA might have resulted in a series of several sub-optimal trades.

MA 200 was a still clearer signal (without bouncing) ... but hey, this all is history, and you only know for sure with hindsight. At least I managed to sell parts of my holding at the peak (~3.70) and I am still with the whole holding ways in the black numbers, i.e. not too miffed.

NZR_MAs.JPG

The question for me is now - did we reach rock bottom already, are we close enough to make selling uneconomical, or is there still lots of potential for further drops? From a fundamental point of view can't I see this share go much further down (obviously, unless the oil market changes substantially, which it may ...).

Who knows, maybe this is my AIR

;???

I was wondering, whether there are any meaningful TA signals around which could help in making this decision, but I suspect not ... otherwise it would be really easy to predict rock bottom, which it is not.

Anyway - I suspect in 3 to 6 months we all will be wiser ...

**bull....** · 28-07-2016, 06:52 PM

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

Agreed - KW leaving this forum was (actually is) a huge loss for this forum and yes, if I look at the MA 100, than it would have been a good idea to sell at the point in time the share price dropped through it, though there is another short bounce, i.e. just following TA might have resulted in a series of several sub-optimal trades.

MA 200 was a still clearer signal (without bouncing) ... but hey, this all is history, and you only know for sure with hindsight. At least I managed to sell parts of my holding at the peak (~3.70) and I am still with the whole holding ways in the black numbers, i.e. not too miffed.

NZR_MAs.JPG

The question for me is now - did we reach rock bottom already, are we close enough to make selling uneconomical, or is there still lots of potential for further drops? From a fundamental point of view can't I see this share go much further down (obviously, unless the oil market changes substantially, which it may ...).

Who knows, maybe this is my AIR

;???

I was wondering, whether there are any meaningful TA signals around which could help in making this decision, but I suspect not ... otherwise it would be really easy to predict rock bottom, which it is not.

Anyway - I suspect in 3 to 6 months we all will be wiser ...

the share in a clear downtrend so goodness knows where the bottom is.

fundamentals are terrible for refining at the moment all refiners are suffering, just because oil drop doesn't mean margin automatically improve the fact is all refiners ramped up production so much last yr there is now a glut of gasoline worldwide and demand has dropped as well.

but things move in cycles so will have its day again.

**golden city** · 01-08-2016, 06:10 PM

It looks bottom out

**golden city** · 02-08-2016, 10:56 AM

Oil price under 40 dollar Again

**Nasi Goreng** · 02-08-2016, 11:23 AM

Its fair to say NZR were making supernormal profits last year and just like I learned in economics many years ago, when there are supernormal profits, the market will often create more supply to even things out. I think that is exactly what we have seen over the last 12 months with global refinery margins.

**BlackPeter** · 19-08-2016, 10:24 AM

Clearly not the strongest bull yet in the field, but I think the signs are there:

Double Bottom, higher Highs, higher Lows, RSI in bullish territory, passed MA30 and MA50 (not in the pic).

Attachment 8241

Sure - still some more MA's to go to be saf(-er), but for me this looks like markets think that the worst might be over.

DYOR - and yes, I am holding.