CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[SailorRob]

SailorRob, how nice of you to remember! Well, it's not over yet until the f...l...sings.
And if it does go to a terminal only, it will be a sad day for many people, and bad for NZ in that we will be at the mercy of the overseas refiners.

But of course, as an investor it has been good of late. It is looking up and it does not look like it's going to stop. Can't argue with the market so at least jump on for the ride.

Sad and bad agreed.

It is over, it's not an 'if' it goes to a terminal. I've been pointing this out for a very long time as well as the reasons for it that cannot be escaped.

As with this mornings Sun rise, we cannot technically know it will occur for sure until it does however it will in about 4 hours, just like the Refinery will become a Terminal in about 9 Months.

But of course, as an investor it has been good of late. No... not as an investor... you mean as a speculator it has been good as of late. The rise from around 40c to 80c will have recovered you a very small fraction of losses to date speculating in this dog.

There has been no information at all yet to allow a investor to make an investment.

It is looking up and it does not look like it's going to stop. Can't argue with the market so at least jump on for the ride. This is the definition of speculating, absolutely nothing in that line pertains to investing. This is what got people into trouble in the first place.

How about a detailed analysis of the documents regarding the terminal conversion and subsequent operation and then an informed investment hypothesis clearly explaining how as an equity owner you will see cash generated and distributed to you as well as highlighting all risks, specifically critiquing the figures presented, paying particular attention to CAPEX and the fact that no agreements have actually even been reached...

I doubt I will see this as it's easier to just jump on for the ride as it looks like it's not going to stop - just like it did as it approached $4...

DONT BE SUCKERS

[SailorRob]

Unreal no posts today after the Shareholder vote.

Less than 1% of votes were to stay refining I believe.

Nobody has taken me up on my challenge in my post above to provide a detailed investment case... no prizes for guessing why they haven't.

[ralph]

Unreal no posts today after the Shareholder vote.

Less than 1% of votes were to stay refining I believe.

Nobody has taken me up on my challenge in my post above to provide a detailed investment case... no prizes for guessing why they haven't.

Yuup Rob was thinking that myself ,what does this mean for sp was up to 90 today ,when is best to cash out ! !
Also as a country we will be reliant on other countries for fuel could be fun times ahead

[SailorRob]

Sharp and Waikaka put up such a fight (won't say good) for so long but when they have gone quiet, indeed it's grim.

[Waikaka]

Sharp and Waikaka put up such a fight (won't say good) for so long but when they have gone quiet, indeed it's grim.

Luckily for me, busy living life rather than worrying about the ups and downs of share prices. Really healthy buying, holding and forgetting about it.

My business case is simple. RAP, jetty, Port and land have an intrinsic value. Shame the refinery is a big rusty paper weight but I didn't pay for it when I was buying in the ~40c range. Gonna cost a bomb to remediate all the crap they have buried around the place.

Shame I bought some before Covid blew everything up but pleased I bought more as the investment case got stronger (with the price getting cheaper) and now happy to hold a boring infrastructure asset for 10 years and see what happens. I thought I was buying a gutter stock that might run the refinery for another 5 years to get the last puffs out but oh well.

Def not buying at these prices but happy to top up if it gets around 50c again.

[Nor]

Seems to have been run for the benefit of the Northland engineering community. Bad luck about the redundancies.

[Sideshow Bob]

Seems to have been run for the benefit of the Northland engineering community. Bad luck about the redundancies.

Not sure of the accuracy, but TV news said 1,000 contracters worked there. Obviously not fulltime but would seem to have a as much an impact on those businesses as the staff that work at the refinery.

[Snoopy]

A refineries margins are relative to the ability of it to produce higher quantities of desired products (remember the cracking process produces bitumen, fuel oil, jet fuel, naptha, gasoline etc) from the relative qualities of available crude. The recent past has seen the US importing a large amount of gasoline and as a result the global prices for the higher temperature distillates has increased. Note with this point that gasoline alternatives going to the US market will no longer be available for other markets such as NZ. A further important consideration is the relative freight rates on crude vs refined products.

Also as the US has strict gasoline rules this means it can only import from advanced refineries or refineries that have used sweet crude (low sulphur) for the purpose of higher distillate output. As more gasoline is produced from high API crudes (such as WTI and Brent) these have sold at a premium. Lower API and Sour crudes has sold at a widening discount.

Marsden Point is not a particularly modern facility and has not overly benefitted from this crude quality spread change but rather in the global increase in refining spreads.

Article below is on the Australian refinery situation

https://www.whichcar.com.au/car-news...keep-them-open

Just as much emphasis is being placed on the quality of fuel produced, particularly as regards sulphur content, as the price. The post that I quoted above is from 2005, so I don't know how the market has evolved since. But my reading of it is that markets who do not have limits on the sulphur content of fuel will be given the lower quality stuff, albeit at a cheap price. High sulphur fuel cannot be used in the latest generation of efficient internal combustion petrol engines, and engines that do run on those fuels are higher polluters.

My questions:

1/ What is the sulphur content in petrol currently being produced by NZR, in parts per million of sulphur?
2/ What requirements are there in the future for the fuel companies to supply low sulphur fuel into New Zealand?

SNOOPY

[SailorRob]

Article below is on the Australian refinery situation

https://www.whichcar.com.au/car-news...keep-them-open

Just as much emphasis is being placed on the quality of fuel produced, particularly as regards sulphur content, as the price. The post that I quoted above is from 2005, so I don't know how the market has evolved since. But my reading of it is that markets who do not have limits on the sulphur content of fuel will be given the lower quality stuff, albeit at a cheap price. High sulphur fuel cannot be used in the latest generation of efficient internal combustion petrol engines, and engines that do run on those fuels are higher polluters.

My questions:

1/ What is the sulphur content in petrol currently being produced by NZR, in parts per million of sulphur?
2/ What requirements are there in the future for the fuel companies to supply low sulphur fuel into New Zealand?

SNOOPY

For Petrol it's 10 ppm maximum for both NZR production and for any fuel sold in NZ. We follow European regulations.

Desulphurisation of petrol is pretty simple and cheap to do, for diesel its more complicated.

We spent 180 million dollars in 2006 to upgrade processing to meet new Sulphur requirements for diesel (under 10 ppm) and benzine in petrol.

[SailorRob]

Not sure of the accuracy, but TV news said 1,000 contracters worked there. Obviously not fulltime but would seem to have a as much an impact on those businesses as the staff that work at the refinery.

Long term average has been total number on site around 550, this is contractors and permanent staff, but some of the contractors have worked here for 40 years or more.

Shutdowns and projects them employed far more people for the duration.

On top of this are the people working in town and for the wider supply chain that don't work directly on site.