CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[BlackPeter]

Amazing - just received my voting pack in the mail and realized that returning my voting instructions by return mail is already too late (needs to be back by Tuesday - unlikely with NZ Post). No Internet voting option and no email option - and I have no access to an old fashioned fax machine.

Scanned the voting paper and send them with an email, but not too hopeful they will accept this delivery - shall see.

just for the record: just received confirmation from NZR that they did accept my scanned and emailed postal voting paper - so this seems to be a way to avoid long mail delivery times, even if they officially don't offer them.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11252520

What an absolutly diabolical situation. No way I'd own the shares with such a blatant an ongoing conflict of interest. Maybe minority shareholders should be allowed to get access to specially priced fuel as a way to resolve this heinous situation ?

[peng]

The oil company owners only utilise the refinery to the extent that it is competitive with imported finished products. If it was to change the propertion of the toll received by it versus the proportion received by the customers, the customers would simply shift to importing more until their profits are restored. Net result: NZR receives a larger % of the margin on fewer barrels, and is net worse off.

[BlackPeter]

NZR diversifying and selling their surplus CO2: https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZR/announcements/252076;

Not sure, how much money is in it for them, but every dollar counts ... and hey, at least we see recently some more positive announcements from them.

On a different note - as sad as it is, but the current situation in Iraq can only be good for NZR as well - can it?
There is not a lot of spare refinery capacity around the globe, and when some of the big refineries in Iraq are under threat (or already shut down), than I guess the refinery margin for the rest is bound to go upwards.

Discl: cautiously optimistic, holding and waiting for better days.

[moimoi]

There is significant surplus refining capacity in the market, particularly in the Asia Pacfic Region. This is why processing margins are so low. As a read of the NZR AR will highlight.

Hard to know if news such as the below of a law change in the USA to allow export of unrefined condensates helps NZR either....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-...eas-2014-06-24

[BlackPeter]

May / June numbers are out: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/198135.pdf

Production coming back to more normal numbers (and should continue to improve), Refining margin still very low (half of what it used to be last year), but at least better than the months before.

Improved margins (due to recent and ongoing projects) and (hopefully) further falling NZD should help.

Discl: Holding

[BlackPeter]

Juli /August numbers are out:

Quite upbeat report and back to healthy margins (mainly thanks to their recent improvements), despite international industry margins staying quite low:

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/200848.pdf

Markets seem to like the report as well - first time for a while that I've seen on this stock more bidders than sellers - and SP up by 6 cents this morning.

Discl: Quite glad I didn't follow my brokers recommendations to sell out

[bunter]

Did a quick check - forecast eps (NPAT basis) is 20cps if current ex rate and margin are sustained.
http://www.refiningnz.com/media/9233...sults_2013.pdf

http://www.refiningnz.com/media/9265...eport_2013.pdf
"TMH is key to the Company’s future and after commissioning late 2015, will deliver a structural uplift in processing fee revenue of circa $70 million per annum"

That's another 20cps.

My model says it's worth about $3.20.
Bought this morning at 1.67 (and watching the price fall).

[BlackPeter]

Did a quick check - forecast eps (NPAT basis) is 20cps if current ex rate and margin are sustained.
http://www.refiningnz.com/media/9233...sults_2013.pdf

http://www.refiningnz.com/media/9265...eport_2013.pdf
Bought this morning at 1.67 (and watching the price fall).

Still think that in a year or two you might be quite pleased with your buy - in price. Its not a stock for day-trading.

Discl: DYOR ... my crystal ball is cloudy

[Vaygor1]

have been interested in taking a stake for a while but the trend is your friend and today's strike announcement is not for striking oil and really bad news.

I used to own shares in NZR. Sold them all between June-December 2007 in the $7.30 to $8.00 price bracket.
Also, I used to contract to and work for NZR once upon time.
If you are thinking of buying, then I invite you to read my Jan-2013 post below as part of your research.
Since the Jan-2013 post, NZR have still not stopped spending (or maybe only just recently stopped spending?), I still don't see any dividend forthcoming, and the world situation on oil has not substantially changed.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post389620

I do smile a bit (sorry) at their announcement about the strike as I am sure quite a few of the shop-floor lads I know would still be there.
But the funny part is that in NZR's Announcement to Shareholders they say they are "making their customers aware" of the union's notice to strike. But NZR's primary shareholders are their customers… however it appears NZR pretends otherwise.