Nov/Dec margin and thruput is generally around 2nd week of Feb. In saying that, the Singapore Complex margin is public information that is easily obtainable by doing a bit of google work $6USD/bbl, the average USD/NZD is roughly 79c for the 2 month period so the only missing information is thruput and margin uplift over the period. So if you take the production this time last year (6.4MBbls) and the uplift that they have been achieving you will end up with a figure of roughly 62.4m for the 2 month period. This is assuming that there were no unit shut downs during the month. If you look at their website there is an analyst briefing report with a useful table in it on Pg24. My guess is that the average margin for the 2nd half of the year will be sitting in the $8 range with exchange rate sitting about 80 cents so according to that table, NPAT will be around $4m.
Nov/Dec margin and thruput is generally around 2nd week of Feb. In saying that, the Singapore Complex margin is public information that is easily obtainable by doing a bit of google work $6USD/bbl, the average USD/NZD is roughly 79c for the 2 month period so the only missing information is thruput and margin uplift over the period. So if you take the production this time last year (6.4MBbls) and the uplift that they have been achieving you will end up with a figure of roughly 62.4m for the 2 month period. This is assuming that there were no unit shut downs during the month. If you look at their website there is an analyst briefing report with a useful table in it on Pg24. My guess is that the average margin for the 2nd half of the year will be sitting in the $8 range with exchange rate sitting about 80 cents so according to that table, NPAT will be around $4m.
Thanks!
My eps matrix seems to indicate 33cps NPAT.
Add to that the impact of Te Mahi Hou, and all the improvements that seem to be happening under the new management.
Good recovery story (some, but not all of which has already been accounted for in the share price).
My eps matrix seems to indicate 33cps NPAT.
Add to that the impact of Te Mahi Hou, and all the improvements that seem to be happening under the new management.
Good recovery story (some, but not all of which has already been accounted for in the share price).
ex rate
EPS matrix
margin$/bbl
70
75
80
85
4
0
0
0
0
5
10
6.7
4.5
0
6
19
16
13
10
7
28
24
21
17
8
39
38
33
29
9
47
42
37
32
Hi, sorry not too sure how you have calculated your EPS. The $8/bbl and exchange rate is only for the last 6 months of the year. The first part of the year ran at a loss due to major planned shutdown and poor margins.
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Originally Posted by snapiti
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