CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[bull....]

whats the dividend policy, i note some disgrunted major s/h about the capital structure and divs and that 2 of the majors were not happy about the expansion going ahead so will they need some payout to keep them happy

[bunter]

Just over 100% payout % in 2007 and 2008 when they were last earning good money.

They said earlier they expected TMH to pay for itself.
Suppose div policy will depend on how much debt they want to pay back and how fast.

I guessed 75% payout % for the y.e. 31/12/15 rising to 90% over four years.

SP on fire today GC - assuming that was what you meant.

[golden city]

good will keep going towards end of the week

[dodgy]

good will keep going towards end of the week

Hi Gc
I will stick by my earlier post being
probably no div on these results although I now think that if the profit is right up the top end as alluded to on the thread, then a small div 1-3 cents may result. Otherwise all the well canvased fundamentals still exist and north of $3 by next year with a good March 2016 div remains my prediction. The money is best spent reducing debt until the completion of though put expansion/kit replacement.
-d

Discl - current hold 50k and will buy on dips.

[bull....]

the price should go over 3 easliy this yr dont you think if current conditions continue, i think margins have risen again as at end of last week over 10 in europe i read

check out valero in the us VLO the stock price has gone vertical since jan a reflection of how good these margins are at the moment

[dodgy]

the price should go over 3 easliy this yr dont you think if current conditions continue, i think margins have risen again as at end of last week over 10 in europe i read

check out valero in the us VLO the stock price has gone vertical since jan a reflection of how good these margins are at the moment

Bull
I agree with your sentiment that there is this prospect, but I have seen many false dawns and "over exuberant" plays in the past, and would be more than happy to see anything north of $3 and sustainable in 2016. The variables are large and prediction is a dodgy game - dodgy being the operative word. Financial analysts and the like remain in the same camp as soothsayers, and they have been at it since time began - human nature too hope in my opinion. Time alone will tell.
-d

[golden city]

i see nzr will at least up to 3.60 this year..,

[BlackPeter]

i see nzr will at least up to 3.60 this year..,

It depends ...

IF the oil price stays roundabout where it is today and IF the world economy keeps growing and IF the refining margins stay where they are at present (which is sort of correlated with the first 2 conditions) and IF we have no earth shattering event or accident in the refinery, THAN I agree. In this case your prediction would be probably still quite conservative. I would see a target price of somewhere between $5.50 and $6 in this case (say by March / April 2016).

However:
IF the oil price jumps later this year as quickly up as it came down late last year, THAN the target price is everybody's best guess ... would assume that it stops climbing as soon as the oil price jumps (which it may or may not).
IF we have later in 2015 the next stock crash, than its difficult to make any predictions (though NZR did quite well in the 2008 crash).

So - lets wait and see ... however I am rather optimistic on this stock as well.

Discl: holding (lots) - and obviously: DYOR

[dodgy]

It depends ...

IF the oil price stays roundabout where it is today and IF the world economy keeps growing and IF the refining margins stay where they are at present (which is sort of correlated with the first 2 conditions) and IF we have no earth shattering event or accident in the refinery, THAN I agree. In this case your prediction would be probably still quite conservative. I would see a target price of somewhere between $5.50 and $6 in this case (say by March / April 2016).

However:
IF the oil price jumps later this year as quickly up as it came down late last year, THAN the target price is everybody's best guess ... would assume that it stops climbing as soon as the oil price jumps (which it may or may not).
IF we have later in 2015 the next stock crash, than its difficult to make any predictions (though NZR did quite well in the 2008 crash).

So - lets wait and see ... however I am rather optimistic on this stock as well.

Discl: holding (lots) - and obviously: DYOR

BP (get the pun)
I believe the price of oil is not hugely relevant to NZR - the main benefit accrues to the oil retailers / govt. tax take. The only downside would be if the price of oil got back to where we were then demand just may be influenced, but at present and supposedly the economy strength should have the opposite effect. Prime drivers margin/exchange rate/ efficiency . I agree that the variables are endless when encompassing all external events.
-d

[BlackPeter]

BP (get the pun)
I believe the price of oil is not hugely relevant to NZR - the main benefit accrues to the oil retailers / govt. tax take. The only downside would be if the price of oil got back to where we were then demand just may be influenced, but at present and supposedly the economy strength should have the opposite effect. Prime drivers margin/exchange rate/ efficiency . I agree that the variables are endless when encompassing all external events.
-d

I see what you mean. Not sure, whether I can point to a direct 1-to-1 dependency. However ... just a few observations:

Over the last 15 years (that's all the data I checked) NZR made much more money while the (inflation adjusted) oil price was (relatively) low. As well - the refining margins more than doubled in the same 2 months in which the oil price dropped. Admittedly - haven't checked against other dependencies as well.

NZR stated itself recently that a low oil price is good for their business (must have been in one of the recent announcements). I think they mentioned less capital cost for storage - and while that's true I have not checked, how material this impact would be.

And obviously (as stated by you) mean lower oil prices higher consumption, which means more volume for NZR.

But yes, agree ... I don't think that $60 per barrel would impact on NZR's current home run. $120 per barrel in my view would.

What I forgot to mention in the previous post is obviously the dependency on the USD. Lower NZD compared to USD is obviously good for NZR.

Discl: In no way related to the well known oil company using the same abbreviation ....