Usually I find you posts spot on Rodger but I believe it is a new dawn for NZR not trouble over the horizon.
New more competitive plant on stream soon
More favourable oil price outlook.
Spread between nymex and brent closing (very good for NZR).
NZD now 71 against the USD.
Actual world fuel use on the increase and quite a few smaller and older refineries have shut down since the mega Asian refineries started 2-3 years ago.
Hope you are wrong for a change as snaps has a sh** load and is still buying on this dip
Here's the latest Platt's report of singapore refinery margins.(anything over $4.50 is very healthy and currently $5.60)
Wait for all those silver tops(over 60's) to start buying once a divi is confirmed(early next year) and my valuation of $3.90 by March 2016 will be very close.
Hi Snaps, this seems to be a share where our valuations seems to be aligned ... just - don't be too greedy with buying into the present dip. Would be nice if you could leave some cheap shares for your fellow share holders.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Usually I find you posts spot on Rodger but I believe it is a new dawn for NZR not trouble over the horizon.
New more competitive plant on stream soon
More favourable oil price outlook.
Spread between nymex and brent closing (very good for NZR).
NZD now 71 against the USD.
Actual world fuel use on the increase and quite a few smaller and older refineries have shut down since the mega Asian refineries started 2-3 years ago.
Hope you are wrong for a change as snaps has a sh** load and is still buying on this dip
Here's the latest Platt's report of singapore refinery margins.(anything over $4.50 is very healthy and currently $5.60)
Wait for all those silver tops(over 60's) to start buying once a divi is confirmed(early next year) and my valuation of $3.90 by March 2016 will be very close.
Good morning Snapiti
We are both in the same camp and I will be more than happy with my guestimate of $3 by end March 2016. I didn't get more at Craigs but picked a few on market @ $2.41 -theft!!
Regards
-dodgy (owner/shareholder)
and one day later they announce they are back up and running 4 weeks faster than last year $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
The 2 shutdowns were completely different. Hydrocracker last year happens about once every 3 years (know as C block shutdown). Hydro cracker is the money making unit in the refinery. This shut down was a lot smaller than the one last year. Of interest though, the 600T crane is now being shifted off so most of the big equipment for new project is in place. Not long now to they flick the switch on that which will put thru some more volume. Things are looking mighty positive down there at the moment.
Usually I find you posts spot on Rodger but I believe it is a new dawn for NZR not trouble over the horizon.
New more competitive plant on stream soon
More favourable oil price outlook.
Spread between nymex and brent closing (very good for NZR).
NZD now 71 against the USD.
Actual world fuel use on the increase and quite a few smaller and older refineries have shut down since the mega Asian refineries started 2-3 years ago.
Hope you are wrong for a change as snaps has a sh** load and is still buying on this dip
Here's the latest Platt's report of singapore refinery margins.(anything over $4.50 is very healthy and currently $5.60)
Wait for all those silver tops(over 60's) to start buying once a divi is confirmed(early next year) and my valuation of $3.90 by March 2016 will be very close.
I have the upmost respect for your posts too Snapper.
Why do you think some of the N.Z. oil companies are getting so snappy, (sorry mate couldn't help myself), and watering down / exiting their investment ?
From Chevron's recent earnings Q1 earnings presentation, a few interesting observations which align with the sale.
Their biggest priority is to grow cashflow by increasing production and delivering on key projects (a few of which in Aus, Gorgan LNG, natural gas find etc. all upstream), reducing spend and asset sales.
Q1 profit for Chevron was down 43% on previous year which has got to hurt. Downstream operations (refining) increased significantly due to better margins and represented 28% of total profit. Sale of Caltex Australia netted them $3.6B in cash and a gain of $1.6B which will flow through to Q2 results.
Not sure about the validity of Caltex Australian refinery and how it compares to others in the region but the decision to shutdown BP's Bulwer Island facility was made this time last year due to low margins. I wonder if they would have made that decision at current margins?
Now would seem as good a time as ever to get rid of refineries while margins are high. It helps them to get rid of an asset which can either grow cash balance or give them opportunity to raise cap-ex for future projects which could be more profitable and in line with core business.
For this recent sale in NZ, it aligns with sale of Caltex Aus and 11% stake seems small fry compared to what was raised there.
Disc: bought back in a couple of weeks ago... wish I had waited.
" Chevron said its decision to sell the holding doesn't affect its arrangements under its processing agreement with the refinery." nzherald
I guess thats a possible worry, the future where Caltex and others can import ALL their fuel from cheaper offshore Asian refineries. In the meantime this cycle looks sweet.
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Originally Posted by freddagg
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