-
Banned
-
Junior Member
[K9 Quote - Oil companies are hedging that next year they'll be able to stock up at lower prices]
What does that mean ?
Oil companies want the price to stay up cos they own reserves, and are able to extract otherwise uneconomic deposits.
Refineries are dependant on reliability & throughput that is all.
Maximum throughput at maximum margins are all you can hope for and currently that aint bad. They are nothing but a cash cow and I would think the Oil Co's want every drop of dividend out to make up for red ink on their marketing margins - does anyone else see NZR as a great defensive stock to buy even at current prices at this point of the economic cycle ?
http://www.smallcaps.co.nz
Profit & Loss is Opinion; Cashflow is Fact
-
Banned
Don`t ask me, I`m not that dumb
Ask the writer Belgarion...it was his call[xx(]
Compared to Europe, the US and particularily Japan has been doing quite nicely EVEN with high OIL prices.
-
The price of oil will only increase in the long term. Short term fluctuations will continue, but long term the price will be sky high. A company finding oil that is uneconomic today will find that tomorrow it becomes a cash cow. The world will run out of oil in the end, with great wars fought over the remaining stocks.
We will produce alternatives, but to counter that we will always have a great demand for remaining resources. The share market will treat the people well that can visualise this. The retailers of oil and refineries will depend on other aspects, it is the companies with oil in the ground that will be the big winners the large refineries will go out of business.
-
Junior Member
Good post DM, if you read it with a deep voice it sounds like the begining of another Peter Jackson triolgy...
Your points strike me as completely logical e.g. oil will run out one day and the price will be unlikely to go down.
The 'great wars' bit sounds useful in terms of trading gold stocks, perhaps we will get to participate in the new economy after all.
Don't agree that the refineries will go bust before the oil runs out cos it needs to be refined and those who own the oil in the ground also own the refineries. My guess is that will be around 2050.
Which brings me back to NZR; given that the current price is based on expected profitability and dividend payment, why is this not a good time to purchase as apposed to say when the stock was $14 and NZR announced that they may have to halt dividends due to capital expenditure requirements (about 18 months ago I think).
No one seems to know, I guess because $30+ sounds like more than you'd pay for 3 large pizzas. Think I'll buy some more, if I didn't think it was a good investment at $30+ then I guess I'd be selling what I do hold, or is that too obvious ?
http://www.smallcaps.co.nz
Profit & Loss is Opinion; Cashflow is Fact
-
Going up again this morning in spite of all the rubbish posted here. All you have to remember is that NZR is an effective monopoly (2) It is owned more than 70% by its primary customers, the three or four big oil companies, Shell BP etc.,(3) Any extra costs can be immediately applied at the pump and customers must pay or walk (4) If they put the price up a tad too soon or keep it up a tad too long, well, its just a little more profit. All the philosophical arguments about world events, supplies, alternatives and the like are of no consequence to you and me as we will have plenty of time to take cover in the event of disaster but right now just sit back and watch those dollars and cents rolling in.
-
Junior Member
Did a little more research and then bought a few more. Certainly pleased I did now.
My strategy, for what it is worth, is to hold until 12-18 month before the next Olympics, at which point I think demand from China will start to ease.
May hold longer as World refinery capacity needs to increase by 24% to meet predicted 2015 demand.
As it costs 3-4 times as much to build a new one as it does to expand and existing one,many refineries will be undertaking and paying for expansion out of their fat margins,I think a nice little refinery that isn't going to spend capital on expansion or sour crude conversion capability but rather pay dividends sounds good !
Any differing views ?
http://www.smallcaps.co.nz
Profit & Loss is Opinion; Cashflow is Fact
-
And the magic 4000cps has been reached again.
-
Junior Member
Well... I have to eat my words... I for one didnt think that we would see prices like this again.
A couple of interesting things to consider though... Green house gas... yes I know that they have an agreement with the Government but are they keeping too it? Are they still striving for best in class energy efficieny and also the deal that the govt gave them mentioned carbon credits for co-gen... looks like that has been shelved...
On the up side... big land holding in the very expensive Marsden port area.
Increased pipe line capacity which I am sure is being sucked up by the Auckland crowd... for those who are interested, have a look at the AIA throughput charts and it will give you some idea as to the growth of the pipeline... it may however be at maximum capacity by 2009... which is good and bad..
Anyway... only a few days left of the half year.. I am going to predict the profit for the 6 months... I was pretty close with the full year so here goes...
Revenue 143m
Costs 62m
EBIT 81m
Int divvy $2.50
Full year profit 150m.. final divvy $3.
Just thoughts... but still a 15% return
Chris
Whangarei
Am I a pro trader or just a try hard wanna be...
-
I can live with that, but, I am more inclined to believe that it will be $2.
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
|
|
Bookmarks