CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[bull....]

		SRM	NZRM	DIFF
2013	Jan/Feb	8.48	4.18	-4.3
	Mar/Apr	7.3	5.03	-2.27
	May/Jun	7.21	6.84	-0.37
	Jul/Aug	6.09	6.05	-0.04
	Sept/Oct	5.12	2.95	-2.17
	Nov/Dec	5.35	1.82	-3.53
2014	Jan/Feb	6.53	3.86	-2.67
	Mar/Apr	6.06	-2.84	-8.9
	May/Jun	5.71	3.48	-2.23
	Jul/Aug	4.32	6.75	2.43
	Sept/Oct	5.78	7.54	1.76
	Nov/Dec	6.24	9.98	3.74
2015	Jan/Feb	7.61	9.91	1.39
	Mar/Apr	8.39	8.77	0.38
	May/Jun	8.15
	July/Aug the srm is the total

[bull....]

srm is the total refinery margin from Singapore as reported in that press release a few posts back compared to nzr margin as reported have analysed over 10yrs data and nzr margin mirroers this by brtween 1 - 2 dollars over the course of a yr so is pretty aucrate.

anyway what I was saying yes full 6 mths is fantastic but the current margin this mth is less than 6 so if you mirror that to nzr then they will be running similar around 6-7 in my opinion

[bull....]

nzr quote platts data for Singapore reefing margin at what you say above 3.64 + 3 - 4 still shows what im saying the margins have fallen off of late

[Nasi Goreng]

I based my investment on avg margins of around $6-7 (profit around $60-80m). This last 8 months have provided super-normal profits which is great for debt repayment but I see that as a bit of a bonus for NZR.

Lower debt = lower interest payments which will give better profits next year on same margins.
New Plant = better margins next year
Lower Kiwi = better margins

I'm happy to sit back and own this for the long term unless something significantly changes.

[bull....]

I based my investment on avg margins of around $6-7 (profit around $60-80m). This last 8 months have provided super-normal profits which is great for debt repayment but I see that as a bit of a bonus for NZR.

Lower debt = lower interest payments which will give better profits next year on same margins.
New Plant = better margins next year
Lower Kiwi = better margins

I'm happy to sit back and own this for the long term unless something significantly changes.

nice to see some realistic sensible comment as cant expect margins to stay at max for ever all I was trying to say was if margins fall they still profitable but divs might be delayed as it will take longer to pay of debt

[Nasi Goreng]

I personally would rather see them retire as much debt as possible then pay from 2017. That view is not shared by the oil companies though so I would expect them to be pushing for dividend asap. Either way, its all good.

[bull....]

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/oi...k-low-27540024

[bull....]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZR/announcements/266973

8.12 I got 8.55 achieved pretty close

[Joshuatree]

Good one bull. Our processing fee for the half year is bigger than for the whole of last year ; partly due to shutdown / upgrade i guess . Sure has been in a sweet spot but for how much longer; will the momentum continue margin wise.

[cdonald]

good uplift still over Singapore margins of $4.31/bbl and nice to see that still another few million of cap to play with. Pretty high thruput for the 2 month period with a shut down in it too... They are certinally trying to make hay while the sun shines. Looking forward the singapore margins are a bit weaker but the NZR uplift and cap carried forward mixed with upgrade and lower NZD will no doubt produce a bumper year for NZR.