sharetrader
Page 118 of 119 FirstFirst ... 1868108114115116117118119 LastLast
Results 1,756 to 1,770 of 1778

Thread: NZR

  1. #1756
    Member Pumice's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Brisbane
    Posts
    313

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Precisely, Beagle. It hurts to advocate losing another company from our skinny NZX but really, NZR would be doing minority shareholders a favour by encouraging oil companies, including the newer, smaller ones to buy those minority shareholders out.
    Just a thought.... could minority shareholders pool their stock and act as an agent for a competitor fuel company in the same way the oil company shareholder do? maybe they need some competitive tension.
    Be interesting to see what processing fee could be negotiated on whether the 70/30 GRM split would hold etc

  2. #1757
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    5,228

    Default

    share price looks like it wants to test its 2014 lows again , terrible performance , not surprising because minority investors have always played second fiddle to the majors interests
    bull

  3. #1758
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2018
    Posts
    29

    Default

    And it's still massively overvalued. Through immense effort and taking huge risk they manage to make on average 30 mil net profit a year over the last 10 years. All this company deserves as a multiple is 10, so based on earnings the company should have a market cap around 300 mil. Less than half what it does now. Solar farm will be a massive disaster, uneconomical and will go way over budget. The pipeline is the cream dragged down by the rest of the business. The pipeline the deep water port and tank farm and land are great long term assets which may be able to earn good profit in the future. Right now CAPEX is the killer and it ain't going away.

    As others have said - massive difference between normal shareholders and the shareholders that use the refinery.

  4. #1759
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    5,228

    Default

    this may not be good for nz refining earnings. refining margin must be bad

    from z statement today

    The contractual arrangements that Z has with the New Zealand Refining Company (NZX: NZR) means we havea ‘floor’ in the processing fee that we pay to the refining company. Third party forecasts regularly provided toZ estimate that during 4QFY20 refining margins will drop below the ‘floor’ level and may require Z to ‘top up’the refining company
    bull

  5. #1760
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    5,228

    Default

    the debt matrix might blow out on bad refining margins making borrowing for those solar projects etc unattractive due to borrowings
    bull

  6. #1761
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2018
    Posts
    29

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    the debt matrix might blow out on bad refining margins making borrowing for those solar projects etc unattractive due to borrowings
    More unattractive you mean?

    I think the solar farm is some type of separate entity - as far as the debt is concerned anyway.

    The crude shipping sanctions are killing the margin at the moment.

    'The margin is calculated as the typical market value of all the products produced, minus the typical market value of all feedstockprocessed. The typical market value of products is determined by using quoted prices for the products in Singapore plus the typicalfreight cost to New Zealand plus product quality premia. The typical value of feedstock is determined by using the market value forcrude oil and other feedstock at the point of purchase, plus the typical cost of freight to New Zealand'.

  7. #1762
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Bolivia.
    Posts
    1,687

    Default

    New CEO announced. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/346980

    Can't see much changing.....

  8. #1763
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2020
    Posts
    24

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    New CEO announced. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/346980

    Can't see much changing.....
    She's got an impressive CV. God knows they need some new blood on board.

  9. #1764
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    13,747

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowdy Flat View Post
    She's got an impressive CV. God knows they need some new blood on board.
    Lets hope she delivers.

  10. #1765
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    5,228

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Lets hope she delivers.
    wouldnt hold your breath , company dominated with self interest
    bull

  11. #1766
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2020
    Posts
    10

    Default

    Long time lurker first time poster. NZR is on my buy list at the moment.

    Pro: long history of dividend payments, stable demand for product, decent discount between price and book value. Significant moat to any competitors. Tank farm, port land and RAP all great irreplaceable assets.

    Cons: Leverage is too high, cornerstone shareholders with vested interests, long history of short term CEO's, recent greenwashing ie solar farm.

    With a market cap of ~$560 million for a 120kbpd refinery and pipeline etc happy to hold my nose and pick this one out of the gutter.

  12. #1767
    Veteran novice
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    6,723

    Default

    Welcome, Waikaka and good luck with NZR. I'm a holder but well aware that the company is run, first and foremost for the major, not just cornerstone, oil company shareholders. Yes, there's been some good dividends in the past, but also some lean years. Not my favourite company but not an absolute dog, IMO.

  13. #1768
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2020
    Posts
    10

    Default

    Interesting that in 2014 BP, Mobil, Z-Energy and Chevron held ~65% of the company. With Chevron exiting in 2015 and BP halving its stake in 2017 they now only have 42.6% between them.

    I understand that the generous tolling terms help ensure that the refining continues in NZ so has some justification but hope that longer term a slightly more equitable balance can be found.

  14. #1769
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2018
    Posts
    29

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Waikaka View Post
    Interesting that in 2014 BP, Mobil, Z-Energy and Chevron held ~65% of the company. With Chevron exiting in 2015 and BP halving its stake in 2017 they now only have 42.6% between them.

    I understand that the generous tolling terms help ensure that the refining continues in NZ so has some justification but hope that longer term a slightly more equitable balance can be found.

    Waikaka, please look at earnings over the last 10 years and average them out. Look at the free cashflows (or lack of) and see what the CAPEX is spent on. Agree with the strategic assets but look at the income they earn. Look at what's happened to Australian refineries.

  15. #1770
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    5,228

    Default

    and its a asset in its sunset years how long that maybe.
    bull

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •