CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[RTM]

Bloody hell, print money and forcibly nationalise industry. What part of Africa did he get this idea from!

Thought you would enjoy that !

[SailorRob]

Better to keep the jobs there for the young guys coming on than give people near retirement a windfall.

Shame for young guys coming in for sure, but we moved away from that model in 1984 as we approached bankruptcy and a 20% currency devaluation.

I'm 23 years out from retirement age but those approaching aren't really getting a windfall, just a years pay really.

If we want jobs for all then the easy answer is to ban all use of earth moving equipment effective tomorrow morning and at the same time set up a massive shovel and barrow factory in every town.

[RTM]

Shame for young guys coming in for sure, but we moved away from that model in 1984 as we approached bankruptcy and a 20% currency devaluation.

I'm 23 years out from retirement age but those approaching aren't really getting a windfall, just a years pay really.

If we want jobs for all then the easy answer is to ban all use of earth moving equipment effective tomorrow morning and at the same time set up a massive shovel and barrow factory in every town.

I wouldn't get to fixated on the retirement age SailorRob. You can retire whenever you like. Just takes a wee bit of planning.
I was 57 from memory. Never regretted it for a moment and I loved my job. So far so good !

[ralph]

True RTM, Sailor get fixated with the share price that's going up again ,if it keeps going up you could retire early also !

[SailorRob]

I wouldn't get to fixated on the retirement age SailorRob. You can retire whenever you like. Just takes a wee bit of planning.
I was 57 from memory. Never regretted it for a moment and I loved my job. So far so good !

Exactly! That's why I said retirement age instead of retirement.

I'm only fixated on retirement age from the perspective of wondering why anyone would plan to work until 65...

[SailorRob]

True RTM, Sailor get fixated with the share price that's going up again ,if it keeps going up you could retire early also !

I did think I'd made it pretty clear that I don't fixate on stock prices but rather what the business is doing.

With this one it is only of interest to me in the way a train wreck would be as the only shares I own are those the other poor holders have been forced to give to me through dilution.

As soon as I able to I will be selling them, hopefully to you.

[ralph]

I did think I'd made it pretty clear that I don't fixate on stock prices but rather what the business is doing.

With this one it is only of interest to me in the way a train wreck would be as the only shares I own are those the other poor holders have been forced to give to me through dilution.

As soon as I able to I will be selling them, hopefully to you.

you will not be retiring early on what I give you for them, but certainly they are getting more valuable and worth fixating on at the moment, & even train wrecks can have good value for other reasons than ever driving the train again.

[Wai Wai]

Sailor Rob will join ACC who have been the only real seller since about 44cents Early Christmas presents to the perceptive buyers

[SailorRob]

Sailor Rob will join ACC who have been the only real seller since about 44cents Early Christmas presents to the perceptive buyers

Sold the last of my holdings at $2.93 and $2.75.

I can't sell the ones you guys gave me yet but will be as soon as I can.

With combined debt, current equity value (market) and new debt, there will be a combined 750 million of capital that needs feeding.

I've asked many times for anyone to explain to me how they will generate the 75 million EBIT (real profit not pretend profits like for the last 15 years where tiny depreciation schedules have shown profits but obviously that was all smoke and mirrors) in order to feed this invested capital.

Nobody owes me any explanation but you owe it to yourselves.

In mid July I asked;

How about a detailed analysis of the documents regarding the terminal conversion and subsequent operation and then an informed investment hypothesis clearly explaining how as an equity owner you will see cash generated and distributed to you as well as highlighting all risks, specifically critiquing the figures presented, paying particular attention to CAPEX and the fact that no agreements have actually even been reached...

I doubt I will see this as it's easier to just jump on for the ride as it looks like it's not going to stop - just like it did as it approached $4...


Obviously this must be after the debt holders are satisfied.

The truth is guys, nobody in the world can answer this question... Nobody could even come up with a wild guess as to how this could be achieved.

Come on, someone please just shut me up and show me how I'm wrong.

In the meantime don't be suckers, the share price can do anything in the short or medium term. This is what speculation is.

The share price could go to $2, hell lets say back to $4... Doesn't change a single thing I've said, except that it would be even more impossible (if there is such thing) to justify returns on that EV.

[SailorRob]

Original post 6th October 2020

The safest way to play it is to buy one of the Oil/Gas ETF's, either FENY, XLE or VDE. They both hold over 100 companies but weighted to the majors. You need a 3-5 year time horizon and to be able to thrive on volatility. They currently have yields of 6/8%.

I am personally investing in ExxonMobil the creme de la creme. You can buy it now at the March lows, yielding over 10%. This is just truly unbelievable. This is the blue chip of blue chips, recently the biggest company in America. You can get their dividend history since 1922 from their website. They have raised the dividend every year for 25 years. Counter cyclic capital allocators. Some good interviews with the CEO recently on CNBC (or you-tube).

I'd take a bet with any NZ fund manager that XOM would destroy their performance over the next decade. As well as the NZ50 and SP500...

For Midstream EPD is the best of the best, currently yielding over 11% and extremely safe.

Closer to home this is well worth a watch. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...-never-will-be.

For a bit more risk and potentially much more reward, Occidental Petroleum. Lots to unpack here but a massive opportunity alongside Buffett and Icahn. Icahn is currently buying the very warrants he created, on the open market in massive volumes.

For Coal, ARLP, or David Einhorns CCR.

My advice - unless you really know what you're talking about, keep it simple and you cant go wrong.

Happy to help with more information.

R

One year on.

Refining NZ + 45% No dividend

Occidental Warrants + 407%

CCR + 715% Plus dividends

ARLP + 350% Plus dividends

XOM + 88% Plus Dividends

VDE +105% Plus dividends

EPD + 49% Plus dividends