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  1. #1111
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GR8DAY View Post
    ......good call BP. Wish I had become aware of this one a bit earlier on.....thanks CRAIGS! Anyway Im on board at $3.62 and looking forward to a very healthy dividend. Might even average up and buy more........no point having cash in the bank esp. with this sort of yield.
    And therein lies the nub of the issue. Returns on cash are appallingly low and with so much volatility in world share markets where to hide ?...and this is a great place. Studies have shown demand for refined fuel is pretty inelastic and people use it in very similar quantities in good times and bad. Great result, great to see them hit the margin cap for the whole year...oil and currency lower for longer are two of my key investment themes for 2016 and 2017. Long may it continue. Better late than never with this one I reckon.

  2. #1112
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    wickeeeeed report still looks cheap on looking towards 2017 wish I had more money but my portfolio is fully invested
    one step ahead of the herd

  3. #1113
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    This is my largest holding. Looking forward for the fat dividends

  4. #1114
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    Well, the news keeps getting sweeter and sweeter. I'm picking final divvy of 15-20c for FY16 (on top of interim 5c).

  5. #1115
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Well, the news keeps getting sweeter and sweeter. I'm picking final divvy of 15-20c for FY16 (on top of interim 5c).
    We probably should deal first with FY2015. My guess would be 40% of EPS. Haven't updated the EPS based on the last earnings report, but I think my estimated 46 cents for 2015 should be close enough (given that I assumed them to stay anyway in the cap), this would make a 18 cent divvie, minus 5 cent already paid. Sure - maybe they give us a bit more, but I am as well happy with them repaying their loan.

    2016 might look still a bit brighter ... If we assume they stay with their earnings in the cap - say another 46 cents EPS (maybe a bit more - better yields) - and maybe between 23 and say 30 cents divvie (following their divvie policy of 40 to 60% during periods of high investment.

    Just my 2 cents ...

    Anyway - don't spend it, before you get it & DYOR
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  6. #1116
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    Sorry, I meant FY15. Would say it'll be at least 15c final and to throw in an element excitement they might pay a special of 5c. That'll be a total of 25c for the year, sweet!

  7. #1117
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    The processing margin was over $210m more than last year.......... that's 67cps.....presumably the vast majority of this should fall to the bottom line??

  8. #1118
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    The processing margin was over $210m more than last year.......... that's 67cps.....presumably the vast majority of this should fall to the bottom line??
    Dividends come out of the NPAT, not out of the EBIT. Don't forget that they finished in December last year a major improvement project - and they had as well several smaller investment projects (e.g. CO2 plant) throughout the year. Not sure, how they treat these accounting wise, I hope (and expect) that they use some of the surplus to pay these projects and repay debts. As well - there are some interests to pay on the debts - and they will as well need to pay some taxes!
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 19-01-2016 at 04:28 PM.
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    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  9. #1119
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    Thanks BP. Yes of course tax, interest and some repayments - potentially could repay their capital expenditure faster.

    Market likes it, up to $3.83 and nearing 4.5 year highs.
    Last edited by Sideshow Bob; 20-01-2016 at 01:27 PM. Reason: Corrected

  10. #1120
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    refining margins in Singapore are over $10 at the moment I believe have been for most of the month
    one step ahead of the herd

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