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  1. #1131
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    Thanks guys. I didn't think it would be much as I did quite a bit of research before buying in at $3.71 the other day. From what I read - everything looked rather rosey. I can tell from the thread that some of you have been with NZR for a long time and I thought I may have missed something.

  2. #1132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mickey View Post
    Thanks guys. I didn't think it would be much as I did quite a bit of research before buying in at $3.71 the other day. From what I read - everything looked rather rosey. I can tell from the thread that some of you have been with NZR for a long time and I thought I may have missed something.
    As the famous word goes around on this forum you/we are all "Well Positioned"!!!

  3. #1133
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    Sep 2012
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    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-0...lained/7132934

    interesting article out of Aussie. Pretty basic stuff but interesting. Note the line about Caltex making 400m from refining... next week NZR will announce their profits.

    Margins still remain above CAP and have done so for 15 months in a row (maybe more). Major increase in production with the new project so a good 2015 year. 2016 wont be so good due to hydrocracker routine shutdown but will still be good. Debt no doubt will be gone before long. I am picking a 15c final. Next year I am thinking 30c divvy...

  4. #1134
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    Quote Originally Posted by cdonald View Post

    Margins still remain above CAP and have done so for 15 months in a row (maybe more). Major increase in production with the new project so a good 2015 year. 2016 wont be so good due to hydrocracker routine shutdown but will still be good.
    Do you not expect low oil prices to create even more profit in 2016? Cheaper oil = more oil to be refined = more profits?

  5. #1135
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    no, profit in 2016 will be lower. There are 2 shutdowns in 2016, one coming up in a months time for a couple of weeks (not sure which units) but the major one mid year for 4 weeks is the hydrocracker shutdown. This will reduce thruput to the refinery and reduce the amount of margin it will get. The max margin NZR can make per bbl is $9USD (CAP) which it has been doing for over a year now. In my opinion, oil prices are pretty much irrelevant as NZR is a toll refinery.

  6. #1136
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    Quote Originally Posted by cdonald View Post
    I am picking a 15c final. Next year I am thinking 30c divvy...
    Totally agree, however I'm picking 15c final this year + 5c special just to reward the shareholders for such a great turnaround. Next year should be 30c-35c in total.

  7. #1137
    Senior Member
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    Apr 2002
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    New Zealand.
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    ......CRAIGS are forecasting a gross yield of 14.3% 12mnths and 24mnths out......that was on a price (then) of $3.40........does this sound right?? (maybe that's including imputation credits?) as they are forcasting a 35c total divi......which doesnt quite gel with the 14.3% (48c) They have a BUY recommendation on NZR. Whichever is right it's still going to be a superior yield. Maybe Im missing something here?
    Have a Gr8day.

  8. #1138
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Jan 2002
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    auckland, , New Zealand.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GR8DAY View Post
    ......CRAIGS are forecasting a gross yield of 14.3% 12mnths and 24mnths out......that was on a price (then) of $3.40........does this sound right?? (maybe that's including imputation credits?) as they are forcasting a 35c total divi......which doesnt quite gel with the 14.3% (48c) They have a BUY recommendation on NZR. Whichever is right it's still going to be a superior yield. Maybe Im missing something here?
    must be talking gross yield? anyway interesting someone is dumping big time into any buyers, wonder maybe if its not 15cps what will happen.
    one step ahead of the herd

  9. #1139
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    Jun 2015
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    Sometimes when an institution needs cash to settle client withdrawls from funds, the easiest way out is to sell shares like NZR where buyers just keep stepping up, albeit at a lower and lower price as you keep selling. It is obviously getting to offer better and better value as the price drops. There are simply not a lot of buyers out there for many of the stocks. The price dropping has no bearing/relationship at all on earnings per share of the company in these circumstances. Just run to the bank for a loan and keep buying.

  10. #1140
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    Quote Originally Posted by littletramp View Post
    Sometimes when an institution needs cash to settle client withdrawls from funds, the easiest way out is to sell shares like NZR where buyers just keep stepping up, albeit at a lower and lower price as you keep selling. It is obviously getting to offer better and better value as the price drops. There are simply not a lot of buyers out there for many of the stocks. The price dropping has no bearing/relationship at all on earnings per share of the company in these circumstances. Just run to the bank for a loan and keep buying.
    Well put, if one worries about short term aberrations probably equities are not their forte in my opinion, focus on big picture.

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