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Thread: NZR

  1. #1786
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    fundamentally the world is changing , oil is a dinosaur on the way out. look at exon mobil share price ( and all others in the field ) they are being priced for the reality of there death coming.
    nzr is spending to just stay in business , there debt is exploding due to low cracks
    I feel like that view summaries nicely what is driving the share price down to good value.

    While NZR has its own problems and it is hard dirty work refining crude. I don't see any major medium term changes in demand in NZ. I am happy to wait for the FY 19 announcement on Thursday to see what debt etc is doing.

    Haven't looked at XOM but suspect I would much rather invest in it rather than Netflix, Tesla, Beyond meat of other money sinks.

    Great time to deploy my cash pile on a few undervalued equities and then check on them in a few years

  2. #1787
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    Screaming buy imo

  3. #1788
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    result as expected not very good due to cracks etc , dont agree with there experts outlook though.
    bull

  4. #1789
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    This industry has shown over the years to be cyclical. I expect it to turn at some stage.

  5. #1790
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    I can see fossil-fuelled cars being replaced, but there is no way big hauling trucks can work on electricity. There will have to be hydrogen fuel cells developed for them. It may come faster than I think, but diesel will be needed for a long time yet.
    While I have a petrol-driven car it would be perverse to deny the need for a refinery. The Annual Report seems reasonably cheerful, but then they always do.

  6. #1791
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    There are already trucks running on battery power and more coming, range is limited at the moment, but there is no trouble hauling weight.

  7. #1792
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schrodinger View Post
    Screaming buy imo
    It will be at some point but catching falling knives is not my idea of fun.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #1793
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    Casually following this fall, but not a holder.

    The biggest issue is what will short, medium and longer-term margin's be. If margin's decline when there is world-wide surplus capacity and that surplus capacity increases due to the looming economic slowdown and conversion of vehicles to battery power, the margin outlook is poor. NZR may keep volume up for some time, but if the margin's aren't there, neither are the profits or dividends. Takeaway this share price support and the price collapses. The trigger for revalation (if it occurs) is probably other refinaries around the world calling it quits which would help address surplus capacity.

  9. #1794
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    crack spreads are still bad at the moment
    bull

  10. #1795
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    corona virus impacting the cracks bigger than i thought

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350350
    bull

  11. #1796
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    This company which I am an unfortunate shareholder in needs to get real with business today and stop telling shareholders all about their focus on problems which seems to be continually highlighted in their annual report. They should be spending more time on finding the solutions to reward their shareholders rather than spending heaps delivering pouncy reports.
    In view of their no final divie to shareholders there was no mention of curtailing their staff entitlement scheme.
    I hope the NZ Shareholder's Assn brings this company to account.
    A quote attributed to Margaret Thatcher goes along the lines of
    "The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money."

  12. #1797
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waiuta View Post
    This company which I am an unfortunate shareholder in needs to get real with business today and stop telling shareholders all about their focus on problems which seems to be continually highlighted in their annual report. They should be spending more time on finding the solutions to reward their shareholders rather than spending heaps delivering pouncy reports.
    In view of their no final divie to shareholders there was no mention of curtailing their staff entitlement scheme.
    I hope the NZ Shareholder's Assn brings this company to account.
    Agreed ... they have been pretty **** ... one of my biggest regrets was investing in NZR - the business I thought was a super stable long term dividend payer.

  13. #1798
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waiuta View Post
    This company which I am an unfortunate shareholder in needs to get real with business today and stop telling shareholders all about their focus on problems which seems to be continually highlighted in their annual report. They should be spending more time on finding the solutions to reward their shareholders rather than spending heaps delivering pouncy reports.
    In view of their no final divie to shareholders there was no mention of curtailing their staff entitlement scheme.
    I hope the NZ Shareholder's Assn brings this company to account.

    I have never really looked into the staff entitlement scheme. I presume you mean the share based payments rather than legacy pension entitlements?

    Looking into the 2019 annual report seems like the company buys $1000 worth of shares per employee, can be scaled up bit if performance is met (averaging out 2015-2018 payments it has been $1050 a year per person). Then the shares vest after 3 years. Presumable to exclude temporary short term employees.

    2015 cost the company $292,000
    2016 cost the company $333,000
    2017 cost the company $215,000
    2018 cost the company $133,000

    Spread across pretty stable employee count, an average of 303 employees.

    So over the 4 years I have numbers for, it cost the company a total of $973,000.

    NZR have an annual wage and benefit bill of ~$61 million for 2019 so it costs them about .2% of all wages/benefits for the year. Doesn't seem like a big deal to me.

    I have no problem with a broad based scheme that benefits all employees. Good to encourage long term employees in a complex industrial process, churn is terrible when you are after skilled operators. If they end up with shares that aligns them with my interests right?

    I am still averaging into the business. Really struggling with working out the ongoing implications of COVID19 but still seems a solid business to me. Should be around in 5 years.

    I need to keep analysing as my stake gets bigger but still a really minor part of the portfolio.

  14. #1799
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    Almost at fair value here. That is almost...

    Unreal that people don't give a damn about profits, particularly average net profit over 10 years.

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